June 29th Astroid Impact?? Links
Moderators: ElKamino, Super Moderators
June 29th Astroid Impact?? Links
NASA - "This object has the possibility of impacting the Earth."
I have just been to Rense.com and found this rather disturbing article and would love to get others opinion on it. The most odd part of the whole story is that nowhere on http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/ can I find NEO 2004 MC listed yet when I type in this designation into orbit diagrams I find an orbit thats closer than both Itokawa and Toutatis... its rather strange. A further complexity is that the subject of the posting was originally a NASA statement that was withdrawn the next day.
Here is a link for the orbit:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm? ... &group=all
and the Rense article:
http://www.rense.com/general54/arth.htm
"The June 29 asteroid is designated 2004 MC. It was only discovered ten days ago, on June 15 and will come even closer to Earth than Itokawa. 2004 MC will come within 0.0097 Astronomical Units of the planet, less than 850 thousand miles, a very near miss, and because of the late discovery of the asteroid NASA is unsure of the size of 2004 MC and its orbital path is not absolutely certain.
On June 21 NASA's Near Earth Orbit Dynamic Site said of 2004 MC "This object has the possibilty of impacting the Earth". This statement was, however, removed on June 22, just one day after it appeared. "
I have just been to Rense.com and found this rather disturbing article and would love to get others opinion on it. The most odd part of the whole story is that nowhere on http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/ can I find NEO 2004 MC listed yet when I type in this designation into orbit diagrams I find an orbit thats closer than both Itokawa and Toutatis... its rather strange. A further complexity is that the subject of the posting was originally a NASA statement that was withdrawn the next day.
Here is a link for the orbit:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm? ... &group=all
and the Rense article:
http://www.rense.com/general54/arth.htm
"The June 29 asteroid is designated 2004 MC. It was only discovered ten days ago, on June 15 and will come even closer to Earth than Itokawa. 2004 MC will come within 0.0097 Astronomical Units of the planet, less than 850 thousand miles, a very near miss, and because of the late discovery of the asteroid NASA is unsure of the size of 2004 MC and its orbital path is not absolutely certain.
On June 21 NASA's Near Earth Orbit Dynamic Site said of 2004 MC "This object has the possibilty of impacting the Earth". This statement was, however, removed on June 22, just one day after it appeared. "
Gotrox wrote: is it just me, or does it seem we are in the middle of a "shotgun blast" and just waiting for one pellet "not" to miss?
The increase in asteroid and meteorite activity is inline with the latest predictions Major Ed Dames made on C2CAM with Art Bell - he warns watch for when a space shuttle mission (when they resume) is cut short due to meteorites, this will be followed soon after by "the big one"
I hate talking about doom all the time I have a 2yr old and A baby due in October......When will we find a Way to blow these thing up or at least detonate a Nuclear device Close enough to slow or Change trajectory of the astroid i dont know abot yall but i Hope the governments of the world fight at leat try to stop it and dont go quitely into the night
snowbird wrote: Gotrox,
Theoretically, do you think it's possible that if the asteroid zooms past but close to the moon, that the "wind" it created would be enough to push the moon towards earth?
snowbird (...do I really want to know?)
It doesn't create any "wind" there is no air between it and the moon to do that. And asteroids are too small to have enough gravity to affect the moon too.
Ephemeris Generator
Ephemeris Settings
Target Body: Asteroid (2004 MC)
Observer Location: Geocentric
Ephemeris Settings
Target Body: Asteroid (2004 MC)
Observer Location: Geocentric
Code: Select all
From: A.D. 2004-06-27 00:00 UT
To: A.D. 2004-07-12 00:00
Step: 1 day
Format: Calendar Date and Time
Output Quantities: 21,26-27,39-40
Ref. Frame, RA/Dec Format: J2000, HMS
Apparent Coordinates Model: Airless
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HORIZONS Generated Ephemeris
*******************************************************************************
Ephemeris / WWW_USER Mon Jun 28 14:55:17 2004 Pasadena, USA / Horizons
*******************************************************************************
Target body name: (2004 MC) {source: JPL#10}
Center body name: Earth (399) {source: DE-0406LE-0406}
Center-site name: GEOCENTRIC
*******************************************************************************
Start time : A.D. 2004-Jun-27 00:00:00.0000 UT
Stop time : A.D. 2004-Jul-12 00:00:00.0000 UT
Step-size : 1440 minutes
*******************************************************************************
Center geodetic : 0.000000, 0.0000, 0.0000{E-lon(deg),Lat(deg),Alt(km)}
Center cylindric: 0.000000, 0.0000, 0.0000{E-lon(deg),Dxy(km),Dz(km)}
Center pole/equ : High-precision EOP model {East-longitude +}
Center radii : 6378.1 x 6378.1 x 6356.8 km {Equator, meridian, pole}
Target pole/equ : No model available
Target radii : (unavailable)
Target primary : Sun {source: DE-0406LE-0406}
Interfering body: MOON (Req= 1737.400) km {source: DE-0406LE-0406}
Deflecting body : Sun {source: DE-0406LE-0406}
Deflecting GM : 1.3271E+11 km^3/s^2
Small perturbers: Ceres, Pallas, Vesta {source: SB405-CPV-2}
Small body GMs : 6.32E+01, 1.43E+01, 1.78E+01 km^3/s^2
Atmos refraction: NO (AIRLESS)
RA format : HMS
Time format : CAL
EOP file : eop.040628.p040919
EOP coverage : DATA-BASED 1962-JAN-20 TO 2004-JUN-28. PREDICTS-> 2004-SEP-18
Units conversion: 1 AU= 149597870.691 km, c= 299792.458 km/s, 1 day= 86400.0 s
Table cut-offs 1: Elevation (-90.0deg=NO ),Airmass (>38.000=NO), Daylight (NO )
Table cut-offs 2: Solar Elongation ( 0.0,180.0=NO )
*******************************************************************************
Initial FK5/J2000.0 heliocentric ecliptic osculating elements (AU, DAYS, DEG):
EPOCH= 2453176.5 ! 2004-Jun-20.00 (CT) Residual RMS= .437
EC= .5891804996272966 QR= 1.008727707603071 TP= 2453199.45972821
OM= 91.68988876517793 W= 202.8338714239393 IN= 2.489289076864484
Asteroid physical parameters (KM, SEC, rotational period in hours):
GM= n.a. RAD= n.a. ROTPER= n.a.
H= 23.13 G= .150 B-V= n.a.
ALBEDO= n.a. STYP= n.a.
****************************************************************************************************************
Date__(UT)__HR:MN 1-way_LT O-P-T PsAng PsAMV RNG_3sigma RNGRT_3sig DOP_S-sig DOP_X-sig RT_delay-sig
****************************************************************************************************************
2004-Jun-27 00:00 0.130401 0.4316 82.4 290.4 5896.44114 .017546235 278.51 996.15 0.039337
2004-Jun-28 00:00 0.100180 0.2719 49.8 285.3 4529.36871 .013658102 216.80 775.41 0.030217
2004-Jun-29 00:00 0.080895 0.2615 340.1 264.3 3667.74942 .005554174 88.16 315.33 0.024469
2004-Jun-30 00:00 0.080786 0.4213 279.0 226.2 3681.96548 .005798934 92.05 329.22 0.024563
2004-Jul-01 00:00 0.099887 0.6391 255.0 201.1 4562.57341 .013854077 219.91 786.54 0.030438
2004-Jul-02 00:00 0.129954 0.8763 248.0 184.8 5934.82626 .017669087 280.46 1003.13 0.039593
2004-Jul-03 00:00 0.165065 1.1233 245.9 171.7 7533.75110 .019416558 308.20 1102.34 0.050260
2004-Jul-04 00:00 0.202580 1.3769 245.4 161.1 9241.33065 .020287262 322.02 1151.77 0.061652
2004-Jul-05 00:00 0.241345 1.6355 245.3 152.9 11005.8450 .020758122 329.50 1178.50 0.073423
2004-Jul-06 00:00 0.280806 1.8981 245.5 146.8 12802.3915 .021026618 333.76 1193.75 0.085408
2004-Jul-07 00:00 0.320670 2.1641 245.8 142.4 14617.6869 .021182263 336.23 1202.58 0.097519
2004-Jul-08 00:00 0.360763 2.4328 246.1 139.3 16443.9662 .021269357 337.61 1207.53 0.109702
2004-Jul-09 00:00 0.400979 2.7038 246.4 137.2 18276.3102 .021311526 338.28 1209.92 0.121926
2004-Jul-10 00:00 0.441245 2.9765 246.7 135.9 20111.3723 .021322181 338.45 1210.53 0.134169
2004-Jul-11 00:00 0.481507 3.2505 247.0 135.3 21946.7265 .021309341 338.24 1209.80 0.146413
2004-Jul-12 00:00 0.521728 3.5253 247.3 135.1 23780.5129 .021278027 337.75 1208.02 0.158647
****************************************************************************************************************
Column meaning:
TIME
Prior to 1962, times are UT1. Dates thereafter are UTC. Any 'b' symbol in
the 1st-column denotes a B.C. date. First-column blank (" ") denotes an A.D.
date. Calendar dates prior to 1582-Oct-15 are in the Julian calendar system.
Later calendar dates are in the Gregorian system.
The uniform Coordinate Time scale is used internally. Conversion between
CT and the selected non-uniform UT output scale has not been determined for
UTC times after the next July or January 1st. The last known leap-second
is used over any future interval.
NOTE: "n.a." in output means quantity "not available" at the print-time.
STATISTICAL UNCERTAINTIES
Output includes formal +/- 3 standard-deviation statistical orbit uncertainty
quantities. There is a 99.7% chance the actual value is within given bounds.
These statistical calculations assume observational data errors are random. If
there are systematic biases (such as timing, reduction or star-catalog errors),
results can be optimistic. Because the epoch covariance is mapped using
linearized variational partial derivatives, results can also be optimistic for
times far from the solution epoch, particularly for objects having close
planetary encounters.
1-way_LT =
Target 1-way light-time, as seen by observer. The elapsed time since light
(observed at print-time) left or reflected off the target. Units: MINUTES
O-P-T =
Observer-Primary-Target angle; apparent angle between a target satellite,
its primary's center and an observer, at observing location, at print time.
Units: DEGREES
PsAng PsAMV =
The position angles of the extended Sun->target radius vector ("PsAng")
and the negative of the target's heliocentric velocity vector ("PsAMV"),
as seen in the observer's plane-of-sky, measured CCW from reference frame
North Celestial Pole. Small-bodies only. Units: DEGREES.
RNG_3sigma RNGRT_3sig =
Range and range rate (radial velocity) formal 3-standard-deviation
uncertainties. Units: KM, KM/S
DOP_S-sig DOP_X-sig RT_delay-sig =
Doppler radar uncertainties at S-band (2380 MHz) and X-band (8560 MHz)
frequencies, along with the round-trip (total) delay to first-order.
Units: HERTZ and SECONDS
Computations by ...
Solar System Dynamics Group, Horizons On-Line Ephemeris System
4800 Oak Grove Drive, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Pasadena, CA 91109 USA
Information: [url]http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/[/url]
Connect : [url]telnet://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov:6775[/url] (via browser)
telnet ssd.jpl.nasa.gov 6775 (via command-line)
Author : [email][email protected][/email]
According to this---I'ts gonna be closer than the moon, but still a bit out .o8 light mins and 1 light second is 186282 ( aprox) miles.
By my calculations it should pass 894153.6 miles out. But, that is using data provided by those who would wish it unknown if it was going to hit.
Okay, it's Tuesday - the sun rose this morning. We just had an election and many people are unhappy, but that's another story and the sun still rose.
What's the time frame for this object passing close by and which side of the world is going to get a ring-side view - has anyone figured that out yet?
snowbird
What's the time frame for this object passing close by and which side of the world is going to get a ring-side view - has anyone figured that out yet?
snowbird