Elections 2009-2012, Part 3

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Elections 2009-2012, Part 3

Post by racehorse » 09-23-2010 08:08 AM

The mid-term Elections will be held on November 2, 2010. Only forty days from now! At this point, most political pundits and experts believe Republicans will do exceptionally well and Democrats are in severe jeopardy of losing control of the United States House of Representatives despite the assurance of Democratic officials including Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (Democrat-California) that this will not happen and that her party will maintain majority control. House Minority Leader John Boehner (Republican-Ohio) seems increasingly confident he will soon be holding the Speaker's gavel in the new Congress which will convene in January. Is he correct or badly mistaken? Republicans are also expected to make major gains in the United States Senate. In fact, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Democrat-Nevada) is among those facing a major electoral challenge in this electoral cycle. Will Democrats lose the United States Senate as well and make Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Republican-Kentucky) Majority Leader regardless of whether Senator Reid is returned to office or not?

In addition, the Grand Old Party is currently expected to win most races for Governor this year but according to recent polls Former Democratic Governor Jerry Brown has at least an even chance of regaining his old position in our largest state, California. Even so Democrats are in major danger of losing the Governorship in other states they currently control including the major electoral prizes of Illinois and Pennsylvania which now appear likely to switch from Democratic to Republican. Even New York State is surprisingly now a legitimate pick up possibility for the GOP. Control of state legislatures will also be determined in many states and this will have major significance regarding redistricting for US House seats (and state legislatures) for the next decade following the data taken from the recent United States Census.

Will Republicans be successful in convincing voting Americans that the Obama administration has failed spectacularly creating a "Republican wave" equalling or surpassing the GOP's "Gingrich Revolution" of 1994 as many believe? Alternatively will Democrats be successful in making their case that the GOP has "obstructed" a "needed agenda" from President Barack Obama and the Democratic party that must be advanced if America is to meet it's full potential? We will soon have answers to these questions.
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Post by racehorse » 09-23-2010 08:21 AM

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What The Latest Polls Told Us: Gillibrand in Trouble?

By Sean Trende - September 23, 2010

. . .

SENATE

New York – Here’s a pair of shockers that aren't shockers if you’ve been paying close enough attention to this race: SurveyUSA shows New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand leading Congressman Joe DioGuardi by a single point, 45 percent to 44 percent, while Quinnipiac shows Gillibrand with a 48 to 42 point lead. According to SurveyUSA, Gillibrand leads in NYC 54 percent to 35 percent, but is losing upstate and, more importantly, the New York suburbs. This is actually consistent with two things – DioGuardi’s Westchester base, and the revolt against Democrats in Nassau and Westchester Counties (little known fact — earlier this year, Democrats lost an Assembly seat in Westchester County that had given Obama 66 percent of the vote).

This gets back to something I wrote back in November of last year: The Clinton coalition really seems to be coming unglued. Northern suburbs swung heavily toward the moderate, fiscally conservative, socially cosmopolitan policies of Bill Clinton, which compensated for the loss of the South. The heavy spending of the Obama administration seems to be driving them the other way. This is a really ominous sign for Democrats, especially if it has some staying power.

In any event, Gillibrand has been below 50 percent for most of this cycle, which is why RCP has kept this race Likely Democrat. If you’ve been watching these polls and what has been going on in New York, the result isn’t all that shocking. Of course, DioGuardi’s reward if he wins will be running again in 2012 with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.

Both SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac also find Senator Charles Schumer with a narrowing lead: SurveyUSA pegs it at 54 percent to 33 percent, while Quinnipiac puts it at 54 to 38 percent.

California – Rasmussen Reports finds what other pollsters are finding here: Democrat Barbara Boxer is beginning to pull away from Carly Fiorina. Rasmussen’s last poll showed Fiorina up by a point, but the latest shows a four point margin in Boxer’s favor. Boxer leads by 3.5 points in the RCP Average, but seems to have a little bit of momentum behind her.

Wisconsin – CNN/Time released several new polls today, including one for the Wisconsin Senate race. Like other pollsters, CNN/Time finds businessman Ron Johnson pulling ahead of three-term Democrat Russ Feingold, this time by a six-point margin, 51 percent to 45 percent. Incidentally, even in an environment with a smaller enthusiasm gap this would likely still be close; Feingold’s lead among registered voters is only 48 percent to 46 percent.

Johnson benefits from a 16-point lead among men, compared to a 5-point lead for Feingold among women. Feingold and Johnson are both receiving 94 percent of the vote from their parties’ bases, meaning this will be fought among the 10 percent or so of independents who are still undecided. In one of those “this can’t be right” crosstabs (with an MOE of +/- 8 percent), Johnson is leading Feingold in Milwaukee County, which gave President Obama 67 percent of the vote.

Johnson is also leading handily in all the suburbs; areas where Clinton Democrats had made great inroads in the 1990s. Johnson leads by eight points in the RCP Average.

Colorado – The Colorado Senate race has been fairly quiet ever since Ken Buck won the Republican nomination. According to CNN/Time, Buck has a five-point lead among likely voters, which is consistent with what other polls are showing. The enthusiasm gap is definitely affecting Bennet negatively; among registered voters he leads 47 percent to 44 percent.

The race sports one of the worst gender gaps in the country – men break 20 points for Buck while women go for Bennet by 10 points. Bennet performs well in the major urban areas of the state (60%+ in Denver/Boulder), but the rest of the state is Buck country. Among the “new suburbs,” Buck leads by 15 points.

The bottom line is that Michael Bennet is an incumbent senator under 45 percent in most polls. That’s not a good place for him to be at this point. Buck leads by 2.4 points in the RCP Average.

Illinois – This is another race where polling has been surprisingly quiet and consistent. Rasmussen Reports has Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias 44 percent to 41 percent. The polls have closed by a point since the early September polling, but the number of undecideds has shrunk considerably. Kirk leads by a point in the RCP Average.

Arkansas – Reuters/Ipsos checks in on this Senate race, and finds the closest race yet for Senator Blanche Lincoln. Congressman John Boozman still leads by a hefty 53 percent to 39 percent margin, but this is the closest anyone has had this race in almost a year. Boozman nevertheless leads by 24 points in the RCP Average.

Delaware – CNN/Time finds that Christine O’Donnell’s bid to become the next senator from Delaware is fading. Among likely voters, she trails 55 percent to 39 percent. Oddly, if the 19th Amendment hadn’t passed, she would be competitive; she trails by three points among men but gets clobbered, 61 percent to 32 percent, among women. In the “sour grapes” department, the same poll shows Mike Castle winning handily.

O’Donnell is winning lower Delaware 48 percent to 42 percent, but, unfortunately for her, most of the state’s votes are concentrated in New Castle County, where she loses 62 percent to 34 percent. Coons is carrying the urban core 77 percent to 20 percent, and is even carrying the Delaware suburbs 55 percent to 41 percent, a highly unusual result for a Democrat this cycle.

Pennsylvania – Pat Toomey continues to hold onto a solid lead in the Keystone State. CNN/Time shows him leading Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak 49 percent to 44 percent, while Quinnipiac finds him up seven, 50 percent to 43 percent.

Quinnipiac finds President Obama at a 40/56 approval split, and 52 percent want to see the next senator from Pennsylvania oppose the President’s priorities, which is bad news for Democrats in this state up and down the ticket. Democrats are heavily concentrated in the 1st, 2nd, and 14th districts, which means that the President’s approval rating in the remaining districts must be abysmal. Toomey leads in the suburbs 54 percent to 38 percent, including a 48/46 win in the Philly suburbs. To put that into perspective, Obama won the Philly suburbs 58 percent to 41 percent, and Bush only carried the Pennsylvania suburbs 52 percent to 47 percent.

HOUSE

Generic – McClatchy/Marist polled registered voters, and found Republicans leading by two points, 47 percent to 45 percent. Of course, this is of registered voters, not likely voters, and so the actual spread among the electorate is probably a few points more in the Republicans’ favor. A more ominous sign for the Democrats is the fact that Republicans lead 61 percent to 34 percent among those who describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting. Also ominous – the Republicans’ lead seems to be fairly evenly spread between the regions: -2 in the Northeast, +4 in the Midwest, +4 in the South, and +3 in the West. . . .
Rest of Article at:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 07282.html
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Post by racehorse » 09-23-2010 07:04 PM

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Mike Castle, write-in candidate?

By Felicia Sonmez

Could Rep. Mike Castle (R) pull a Lisa Murkowski?

The veteran Delaware congressman indicated yesterday that he hasn't ruled out running as a write-in candidate in the Delaware Senate race after being upset by marketing consultant Christine O'Donnell (R) in last week's primary.

If Castle does decide to run, he may have a somewhat easier path to the ballot than Murkowski, the Alaska senator who lost her own primary last month to little-known attorney Joe Miller (R) but announced late last week that she would pursue a write-in candidacy.

According to Delaware Election Commissioner Elaine Manlove, all that Castle would have to do in order to officially run as a write-in would be to fill out a form and submit it to the state Elections Commission office no later than 4:30 p.m. on Sep. 30.

Write-in candidates' names aren't listed on the ballot, Manlove said, but each polling place is required to post a list of write-in candidates who have declared that they're running. Several other candidates have declared write-in bids in the Senate race this year, but no one as prominent as Castle, Manlove added.

One factor that could aid Castle is the fact that the rules regarding what's accepted as a write-in are relatively loose; as long as the intent is clear, many variations of a candidates name are accepted. That means a voter could write in "Michael Castle," "Castle," or a misspelled variation thereof, and the ballot would be accepted, Manlove said.

Castle's high statewide name ID -- as well as a last name that's simpler than "Murkowski" -- could both make the road as a write-in a little bit easier for him.

But as with any write-in candidacy, there would be many logistical obstacles. As in most states, write-in candidates in Delaware have a bleak history: no write-in has ever won state-wide in Delaware, Manlove said.

In addition, while Castle has some considerable cash left over from his primary campaign, he would have to struggle against the millions of dollars that O'Donnell has taken in online since her win. Castle would also be lacking a party infrastructure that would boost him with fundraising, TV ads and organizational heft. He also would not have a clear shot at winning Democratic votes -- a necessity for viability -- give that New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D) is running a credible race.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll released yesterday showed Coons as a favorite in a head to head matchup with O'Donnell; the Democrat took 55 percent to 39 percent for O'Donnell among likely voters. (If Castle were the Republican nominee, he would be leading Coons 55 percent to 37 percent.) The survey did not test a three-way race among Castle, Coons and O'Donnell. . . .
Rest of Article at:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix ... idate.html
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Post by racehorse » 09-23-2010 07:08 PM


September 23, 2010

Castle Will Poll Three-Way Race

Rep. Mike Castle (RDE) "is planning on polling a potential three-way Senate race to test his chances as a write-in candidate," according to Politico.

"The GOP source did not have specifics on when Castle's team would conduct the poll, but viewed it as a practical step even if the nine-term congressman was unlikely to re-enter the race."
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/ ... l_three-wa
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Post by racehorse » 09-23-2010 07:17 PM

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September 23, 2010

Independents Oppose Party in Power ... Again

More Conservative, More Critical of National Conditions



For the third national election in a row, independent voters may be poised to vote out the party in power. The Republican Party holds a significant edge in preferences for the upcoming congressional election among likely voters, in large part because political independents now favor Republican candidates by about as large a margin as they backed Barack Obama in 2008 and congressional Democratic candidates four years ago.

The survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press was conducted Aug. 25-Sept. 6 among 2,816 registered voters, including 2,053 voters considered the most likely to vote on Nov. 2. The survey finds that 50% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, while 43% favor the Democratic candidate.

Republican and Democratic voters overwhelmingly support their party’s candidates. The GOP’s advantage comes as a result of their 49% to 36% lead among independent and other non-partisan voters who are likely to vote in November.

The Republican Party’s overall lead is only evident when the sample is narrowed to likely voters. Among all registered voters, preferences are evenly divided. The race also is even among all independents and other non-partisans, but the GOP’s advantage swells to 13 points among independent likely voters. . . .
Rest of Article at:

http://people-press.org/report/658/
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Post by racehorse » 09-23-2010 08:05 PM



September 23, 2010

Bonus Quote of the Day

"I have never been in a tanning bed or used a tanning product."

-- House Minority Leader John Boehner (R), in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, "addressing a perennial source of jokes" about his dark complexion.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/ ... e_day.html

--
House Minority Leader John Boehner (Republican-Ohio)
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Post by SETIsLady » 09-23-2010 10:21 PM

"I have never been in a tanning bed or used a tanning product."
Great that he cleared that up :p

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Post by Psychicwolf » 09-24-2010 08:22 AM

The Boner spends a great deal of his time inside and in a suit. Love to know his secret for that great tan.:D
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Post by racehorse » 09-24-2010 11:23 AM

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September 24th, 2010

11:45 AM ET

CNN Poll: GOP has big advantage

(CNN) - With a little over a month until Election Day, Congressional Republicans have the clear advantage with voters nationwide, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll says.

In a generic ballot matchup, the Republican leads the Democrat by 9 points among likely voters - 53 percent to 44 percent.

That spread is slightly smaller than the 55-42 percent advantage Democrats had at the same point in 2006, ahead of their major electoral victories that handed them control of both the House and Senate.

But the new survey suggests Republicans could be in even a better position than they were in 1994, when the GOP stunned the Democrats with their gain of 54 seats in the House and eight seats in the upper chamber. In a generic matchup poll in late September of 1994, Republicans only had a 3-point edge over Democrats, 48-45 percent. . . .
Rest of Article at:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20 ... advantage/
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Post by racehorse » 09-24-2010 11:28 AM


THE COOK REPORT

After The Deluge Of 2010

Dems will likely be repudiated in November, but the GOP could face civil war.


by Charlie Cook

Saturday, Sept. 25, 2010

A well-known Democratic strategist commented to me the other day, "We have a hurricane coming right at us. We know it's not going to veer to the left or right; it's coming straight at us. It could end up being a Category 3, 4, or 5, but right now it's a 5."

In my mind, a Category 3 storm would mean that the Democrats would suffer significant losses in the House and Senate but maintain majorities in both.

A Category 4 would flip the House into GOP hands, although maybe not by much, and Democrats would keep control of the Senate by a slim margin. In a Category 5 tempest, Democrats would lose the House in spectacular fashion, giving Republicans a substantial majority, and the Senate would be teetering on the edge.

So, what are the implications of either a Category 3 or a Katrina-like Category 5? The House now has 256 Democrats and 179 Republicans (counting one vacant seat for each party in their total). That's a 59 percent-41 percent ratio. Virtually every plausible election outcome points to a more closely divided House.

If you gave House Speaker Nancy Pelosi a choice of a 30-seat loss versus taking her chances in the election, she would accept the nine-seat majority in a heartbeat. At this point, the best-case scenario for Democrats would be a 226-209 majority, a 52 percent-48 percent breakdown.

The best-case scenario for Republicans would be a 60-seat gain, which would give them a 239-196 advantage, a 55 percent-45 percent split. That's a pretty narrow division by historical standards, but close has been the norm since the 1994 election. Neither party has had a truly decisive majority in the chamber in the past 16 years. Even so, because the House has no filibuster rule, the majority party can generally pass legislation close to what it wants.

In the Senate, however, a 59- or 60-seat majority is often not enough to prevail because the rules allow filibusters and holds. In the upper chamber, a party would probably need a two-thirds majority to truly get what it wants. If you offered Senate Democratic leaders a choice of a six-seat net loss (factoring in independents) versus taking their chances in the election, they would gladly write off the half-dozen seats. The very best outcome for Democrats in this election would be a 53-47 majority.

For Republicans, the best-case scenario would be a 12-seat gain in the Senate -- keeping all of their own seats, plus winning every Democratic seat that is leaning their way, every toss-up race, and the open West Virginia seat. That would give the GOP a 53-47 majority -- an identical margin to the Democrats', but still far short of enabling them to break a filibuster.

In short, the election is likely to produce a very evenly split Senate, which would mean, at best, a lowest-common-denominator situation and, at worst, legislative paralysis. Very possibly, neither party would be able to enact or repeal anything particularly controversial.

Let the record show that, in my experience, the outcome will probably be something between the best and worst scenarios.

Just to spice things up more, President Obama and congressional Democrats will come out of this election largely repudiated, but Republicans will have little time to celebrate. Civil war will soon break out on multiple fronts between the old Republican Party and the new Republican Party that has been expanded by tea party adherents and sympathizers.

One can imagine two GOP chiefs in the Senate: Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the official leader, and Jim DeMint of South Carolina, a shadow leader. DeMint could control a minimum of 10 Senate votes and perhaps more if you count more-traditional Republicans who are up for re-election in 2012 or 2014 and fear a conservative primary challenge.

The ghosts of Utah's Robert Bennett, Delaware's Michael Castle, and Alaska's Lisa Murkowski will be hanging over the GOP Conference's Tuesday lunches, reminding incumbents such as Orrin Hatch what could happen to them.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazi ... cookreport
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Post by racehorse » 09-24-2010 01:01 PM

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Senate Battle Lines Still Shifting As GOP Races For Control

By SEAN HIGGINS AND DAVID HOGBERG

09/23/2010 07:26 PM ET


A strong tide should lift Republicans to victories in several Senate races, with polls pointing to an ever-expanding list of states in play.

Of the seats now held by Democrats, Republicans have a good to excellent chance of winning Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Arkansas, North Dakota and possibly Indiana are all but assured GOP pickups. Others, like Illinois and Nevada, remain close in the polls.

Polls out this week show Republicans have a real shot at winning West Virginia while other surveys suggest a New York Senate race is competitive.

'Uphill Battle'

However, recent developments suggest that Democrats may be able to stanch the bleeding by carving out leads in several traditionally blue states.

David Mark, senior editor at Politico and author of "Going Dirty: The Art of Negative Campaigning," views the Republicans as facing "an uphill battle" to win the 10 seats necessary for a Senate majority, but added that history is on their side.

"In a wave election year most or all of the close races go to the winning party," Mark noted. "It happened for Republicans in 1994 and Democrats in 2006." . . .
Rest of Article at:

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysi ... ?id=548302
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Post by SETIsLady » 09-25-2010 04:46 PM

Wexler will endorse Crist for U.S. Senate on Sunday
Former U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler, the darling of Democratic Jewish retirees, on Sunday will endorse Gov. Charlie Crist in his independent run for the U.S. Senate, the governor's campaign announced today.


http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state ... aking_news
Its going to get interesting now, this is a huge endorsement for Charlie..

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Post by SETIsLady » 09-26-2010 06:26 PM

Hey Race, I guess McCain is debating tonight. I think I found a link to the live debate.

U.S. Senate Candidates debate live at 6 p.m.

http://www.azfamily.com/home/US-Senate--103823424.html

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Post by racehorse » 09-26-2010 09:12 PM

Thanks SETIsLady. :)

Unfortunately, I missed that debate.

I am not worried about that race though. ;)
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Post by racehorse » 09-26-2010 09:17 PM

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Democrats fear Midwestern meltdown

By: Maggie Haberman

September 26, 2010 07:24 AM EDT

Two years after President Barack Obama swept the Midwest, Democratic fortunes in the region are sagging, with the GOP poised to make big gains by scooping up disaffected independent voters in a wide swath of states hit by job losses, budget woes and political scandal.

From Ohio to Iowa, there’s a yawning stretch of heartland states whose citizens voted for Obama and congressional Democrats in 2008, but who have lost patience waiting for an as-yet undelivered economic revival that was first promised in 2006, and then two years later. Now, they look set to stampede toward the out-of-power party.

“There's little doubt that the Midwest is the Democrats' toughest region this year,” Democratic pollster Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling wrote on the firm’s website Friday, adding that the firm is also finding an enthusiasm gap of about 10 points down from what existed in 2008.

“If the election was today the party would almost certainly lose the Governorships it holds in Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. It's also more than likely at this point to lose the Senate seats it has in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana, miss out on a once promising pick up opportunity in Ohio, and quite possibly lose their seat in Illinois as well. And there are too many House seats the party could lose in the region to count,” Jensen noted.

Top GOP pollster Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies wrote in even harsher terms last week: “The Midwest is going to be a killing field for Democrats this year from western [Pennsylvania] through to the Plains, Republicans are going to sweep a LOT of Democrats right out of office.”

The states in question magnify what’s happening elsewhere in the country: dissatisfaction with Obama, unrest with Washington in general over major legislation that voters feel has merely piled onto the national debt, and the steady erosion of jobs.

“There’s two major factors. One is that there are a lot of swing voters, as well as a lot of Reagan Democrat voters, in the Midwest, and therefore I think the national mood hits harder,” said Saul Anuzis, the former Michigan Republican Party chairman. “And secondly you’re talking about record unemployment.”

But there’s also the enthusiasm gap, the flight of independent voters, unpopular Democratic governors in each state and Obama’s own sinking approval ratings, PPP found.

Anuzis said there had been very high expectations of Obama, and that the crash from such a high has been a bitter pill for voters to swallow.

Some states appear to suggest that 2008 was an anomaly—such as Indiana, which Obama carried despite losing 77 of its counties.

“I think states are reverting back to form. I think there's a lot of people in the middle who are not aligned with either party, who have been [ticked] off since 2006 and haven't stopped being [ticked] off,” said a Democratic strategist who is working on races in Illinois.

Bolger cited generic ballot data he’s just conducted showing the Democrats faring even worse in the Midwest than in the South. His numbers show Democrats getting 35 percent in that key region, compared to 39 percent in the South, which is a Republican stronghold.

In both regions, the generic Republican captures 47 percent.

Such brutal forecasts suggest an intense fight could be in the works for Obama and his party in 2012 to win back independents who are clearly still up for grabs, but seem set to teach the Democrats a lesson. . . .
Rest of Article at:

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm? ... 4AF020DC0C
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