Interesting data. Especially considering 90% of the presumptive nominee's delegate lead is from red state caucuses. Is it all 'about the math'? Whose math? Does delegate 'math' win general elections.
The democrats might really be in trouble here:
Gallup Daily: Clinton Maintains Lead Over McCain
*Obama has 5-point lead over Clinton among Democrats
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 20-24 finds Hillary Clinton maintaining a significant 49% to 44% lead over John McCain when registered voters are asked about their preferences for the fall general election, while McCain has a slight 47% to 45% advantage over Barack Obama.
Despite the fact that Obama is considered to be the highly probable Democratic nominee, Gallup Poll Daily tracking continues to show that, at the moment, Clinton is performing better against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain than is Obama. Clinton's five percentage point lead over McCain is statistically significant, and considerably stronger than Obama's 2-point loss to McCain among registered voters nationwide.
At the same time that Clinton is enjoying stronger support than Obama against McCain in terms of hypothetical general election matchups, she continues to lose to Obama among national Democrats. The most recent May 22-24 three-day rolling average has Obama at 50% and Clinton at 45%, a slightly smaller margin than in previous days.
There are only three primaries left for Democrats this year -- Puerto Rico on June 1, and South Dakota and Montana on June 3. At that point, all eyes will turn to challenger Clinton as she and her campaign team contemplate their next move as the Democratic Party moves towards their late August convention in Denver. -- Frank Newport
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107488/Gallu ... cCain.aspx
Gallup Daily: Clinton Maintains Lead Over McCain
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Shirleypal
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Interesting data indeed, and data that has in fact remained relatively consistent for the past several months.
The electoral map has also remained relatively constant and it shows a far easier path to the White House for Hillary Clinton in November as opposed to Barack Obama.
The electoral map has also remained relatively constant and it shows a far easier path to the White House for Hillary Clinton in November as opposed to Barack Obama.
"You'll get used to my babbling, all the others have." - Anna Madrigal from "Tales Of The City" by Armistead MaupinGOP strategists mull McCain ‘blowout’
From politicodotcom - By DAVID PAUL KUHN | 5/23/08 5:29 PM EST
It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain, many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama — and by a margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004.
At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish.
But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes.
By post-war election standards, that margin is unusually small. Yet it’s considerably larger than either Bush’s 2004 victory or his five-electoral-vote win in 2000.
“A win by 40 or 50 electoral votes would be an astonishing upset, just a watershed event with all the issues that were stacked against him from the very beginning,” said David Woodard, a Republican pollster and Clemson University political science professor. “But it could happen. I know this seems like wishful thinking by Republicans. I’m thinking that Republicans could win by 40 electoral votes. But I dare not say it,” he added. “Certainly what is possible could come to pass.”
A top strategist with the Republican National Committee, who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, explained that by his own examination, “we’re actually sitting pretty well in most states.”
“There are a lot of scenarios that look good for McCain, and I almost would go so far to say that there are a lot more scenarios [than for Obama],” the strategist added. “I don’t think anybody over here wants to let themselves get too excited about it. It is an eternity between now and November. But McCain looks a lot stronger than our prospects as a party.”
It is virtually impossible to find an established GOP strategist who believes McCain will win in a landslide. But in light of the circumstances, more than a few Republicans are pleasantly surprised to find that McCain is at all situated to defeat Obama.
“The broader environment clearly favors the Democrat,” said Whit Ayers, another veteran GOP pollster. But Ayers argued that “a state-by-state analysis actually makes McCain a narrow favorite to win the Electoral College majority.”
“That would certainly run against the grain of history, if he pulled that off,” Ayers added. “But it’s also clearly plausible and a manageable outcome partly because of John McCain’s strength among independents and partly because of Obama’s weakness in culture, ideology and association.”
Some Republican strategists can envision a scenario in which Obama wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College — he might galvanize Southern black turnout, for example, but still fail to switch a state in the region.
Among the 10 strategists interviewed by Politico for this story, there was near-uniform belief that had any other Republican been nominated, the party’s prospects in November would be nil.
“No disrespect to the other candidates,” said GOP pollster Glen Bolger, “but if anyone else had been nominated we’d be toast.”
The case they make for a comfortable McCain win is not beyond reason. Begin with the 2004 electoral map. Add Iowa and Colorado to Obama’s side, since both are considered states Obama could pick off. Then count McCain victories in New Hampshire and Michigan, two states where McCain is competitive. In this scenario, McCain wins the Electoral College 291-246, a larger margin than Bush four years ago.
If Obama managed only to win Iowa from Republicans and McCain managed only to win Pennsylvania, McCain would still win by a much greater margin than Bush — 300-237.
“McCain is in a remarkably strong position for how poor the political environment is right now,” said Brian Nienaber, a GOP pollster. “McCain could win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada with a high Hispanic population. It really does scramble the map of where Obama does find those electoral votes.”
Naturally, Democrats do not concede the point. But conversations with several Democratic strategists reveal that many acknowledge that the Republican scenarios are at least reasonable, though they say less likely to occur because Obama has the potential to dramatically alter the map, putting some nontraditional states in play at the same time. The bottom line, though, is that McCain’s ability to compete in some big industrial states offers a ray of hope in an otherwise dismal election cycle.
“We have to hold Michigan and Pennsylvania. McCain wins one of those states, we are in trouble. They have to hold Florida and Ohio or they are trouble,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said. “The truth about this race [is], this is the year that we shouldn’t lose, and we could lose.”
The GOP scenarios do not rely on some game-changing event but rather the possibility of Obama failing to overcome his own and his party’s weaknesses. Obama has long been thought by analysts to have a higher electoral vote ceiling as well as a lower floor than Hillary Clinton.
It is that potential Obama floor that increasingly occupies the minds of Republicans studying the map. Even the potentially dramatic rise in turnout of African-Americans may only gain Obama 1 percentage point in many swing states, according to Maslin. Yet Obama’s weaknesses may end up neutralizing some of those relatively modest gains.
Since 1968, Democrats have had a deficit with whites, particularly men. Some Republicans believe that Obama may exacerbate those Democratic challenges, especially in key rural regions like Appalachia, struggle to win back Hispanics or some women, and dash Democratic prospects during their most favorable landscape in at least three decades.
“There is a one in four shot that McCain can win an electoral majority in excess of 50 electoral votes, which by most recent standards would be a blowout,” Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio said. “Considering where the Republican brand is right now, that’s pretty phenomenal.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/05 ... Page2.html
It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain, many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama — and by a margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004.
At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish.
But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes.
By post-war election standards, that margin is unusually small. Yet it’s considerably larger than either Bush’s 2004 victory or his five-electoral-vote win in 2000.
“A win by 40 or 50 electoral votes would be an astonishing upset, just a watershed event with all the issues that were stacked against him from the very beginning,” said David Woodard, a Republican pollster and Clemson University political science professor. “But it could happen. I know this seems like wishful thinking by Republicans. I’m thinking that Republicans could win by 40 electoral votes. But I dare not say it,” he added. “Certainly what is possible could come to pass.”
A top strategist with the Republican National Committee, who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, explained that by his own examination, “we’re actually sitting pretty well in most states.”
“There are a lot of scenarios that look good for McCain, and I almost would go so far to say that there are a lot more scenarios [than for Obama],” the strategist added. “I don’t think anybody over here wants to let themselves get too excited about it. It is an eternity between now and November. But McCain looks a lot stronger than our prospects as a party.”
It is virtually impossible to find an established GOP strategist who believes McCain will win in a landslide. But in light of the circumstances, more than a few Republicans are pleasantly surprised to find that McCain is at all situated to defeat Obama.
“The broader environment clearly favors the Democrat,” said Whit Ayers, another veteran GOP pollster. But Ayers argued that “a state-by-state analysis actually makes McCain a narrow favorite to win the Electoral College majority.”
“That would certainly run against the grain of history, if he pulled that off,” Ayers added. “But it’s also clearly plausible and a manageable outcome partly because of John McCain’s strength among independents and partly because of Obama’s weakness in culture, ideology and association.”
Some Republican strategists can envision a scenario in which Obama wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College — he might galvanize Southern black turnout, for example, but still fail to switch a state in the region.
Among the 10 strategists interviewed by Politico for this story, there was near-uniform belief that had any other Republican been nominated, the party’s prospects in November would be nil.
“No disrespect to the other candidates,” said GOP pollster Glen Bolger, “but if anyone else had been nominated we’d be toast.”
The case they make for a comfortable McCain win is not beyond reason. Begin with the 2004 electoral map. Add Iowa and Colorado to Obama’s side, since both are considered states Obama could pick off. Then count McCain victories in New Hampshire and Michigan, two states where McCain is competitive. In this scenario, McCain wins the Electoral College 291-246, a larger margin than Bush four years ago.
If Obama managed only to win Iowa from Republicans and McCain managed only to win Pennsylvania, McCain would still win by a much greater margin than Bush — 300-237.
“McCain is in a remarkably strong position for how poor the political environment is right now,” said Brian Nienaber, a GOP pollster. “McCain could win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada with a high Hispanic population. It really does scramble the map of where Obama does find those electoral votes.”
Naturally, Democrats do not concede the point. But conversations with several Democratic strategists reveal that many acknowledge that the Republican scenarios are at least reasonable, though they say less likely to occur because Obama has the potential to dramatically alter the map, putting some nontraditional states in play at the same time. The bottom line, though, is that McCain’s ability to compete in some big industrial states offers a ray of hope in an otherwise dismal election cycle.
“We have to hold Michigan and Pennsylvania. McCain wins one of those states, we are in trouble. They have to hold Florida and Ohio or they are trouble,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said. “The truth about this race [is], this is the year that we shouldn’t lose, and we could lose.”
The GOP scenarios do not rely on some game-changing event but rather the possibility of Obama failing to overcome his own and his party’s weaknesses. Obama has long been thought by analysts to have a higher electoral vote ceiling as well as a lower floor than Hillary Clinton.
It is that potential Obama floor that increasingly occupies the minds of Republicans studying the map. Even the potentially dramatic rise in turnout of African-Americans may only gain Obama 1 percentage point in many swing states, according to Maslin. Yet Obama’s weaknesses may end up neutralizing some of those relatively modest gains.
Since 1968, Democrats have had a deficit with whites, particularly men. Some Republicans believe that Obama may exacerbate those Democratic challenges, especially in key rural regions like Appalachia, struggle to win back Hispanics or some women, and dash Democratic prospects during their most favorable landscape in at least three decades.
“There is a one in four shot that McCain can win an electoral majority in excess of 50 electoral votes, which by most recent standards would be a blowout,” Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio said. “Considering where the Republican brand is right now, that’s pretty phenomenal.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/05 ... Page2.html
One of the things that I have noticed during this election as these polls vary from company to company. Real Clear Politics has put them all in one place as well as the questions that were asked in the polls.
Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... ional.html
Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... ional.html
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Sam.I'm.Not
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Psychicwolf
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SETIsLady wrote: One of the things that I have noticed during this election as these polls vary from company to company. Real Clear Politics has put them all in one place as well as the questions that were asked in the polls.
Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... ional.html
That's the site I use for my stats. They cover most of the major polling numbers.
Dance to heal the earth. Not just when you're dancing, but always. Live the dance, whenever you move, in all you do, dance to heal the earth.
Obama has won 33 contests both primaries and caucus states
Clinton has won 18 contests
He has won the most contests
He has the most pledged delegates.
He has the most supers
He has the most popular vote
The math is the math. The goal posts keep trying to be changed.
He has 49 more delegates to reach the end.
Obama 1977 Clinton 1782
Clinton has won 18 contests
He has won the most contests
He has the most pledged delegates.
He has the most supers
He has the most popular vote
The math is the math. The goal posts keep trying to be changed.
He has 49 more delegates to reach the end.
Obama 1977 Clinton 1782
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Sam.I'm.Not
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If treands were fixed Obama would not be where he is. If treands were everthing the Dems should not have just one a elction in Mississippi. If you continue to belive the same things and act in the same way you will get the same results. A new stratagy may be what we need. It seems to have worked in the primary.
Life is short drink good coffee.
Did anyone hear Limpballs talking this morning about how the democrats were only voting for Obama 'because he's black'? The drift was that the party was shooting itself in the foot for trying so hard to be 'politically correct', but it would backfire. I was waiting for the news and weather, and only heard about four minutes of him, but it was a rather interesting take on things.
"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government -- lest it come to dominate our lives and interests." ~ Patrick Henry
Rush has been saying that ever since Obama started to show signs of gaining voters and taking the lead. She is saying race is the only reason he is getting the votes from Dems of any race. For me that's the worst type of racism. so much more worse than what Imus did. Mocking how someone looks like Imus did just makes you look stupid but what Rush does is say that any black person who succeeds it's not for who they are or what they done. It's that they don't deserve it and they are there solely because of their skin colour. Really reassures and attracts the racists in the nation who really believe they are superior than anyone else and every person who aren't like them that succeed is due to unfair circumstances against the white man.
Basic racist ideology, now is Rush like that or is he just trying to attract that portion of society to his side. Either way he's repulsive. Again same group of people who listen to a talk show hosts who continue to say Obama middle name just to gain the demo who react against a person because of his name. What a quality demo the right-wing talk shows hosts have.
Basic racist ideology, now is Rush like that or is he just trying to attract that portion of society to his side. Either way he's repulsive. Again same group of people who listen to a talk show hosts who continue to say Obama middle name just to gain the demo who react against a person because of his name. What a quality demo the right-wing talk shows hosts have.