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Iris
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To Those Who Seek Information

Post by Iris » 11-11-2004 05:06 AM

To Those Who Seek Information As A Basis For Action Regarding Bush's "Victory":

By Jonathan Simon
Thursday, 11 November 2004
I examined the discrepancies between the actual vote tabulations as reported and the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll results in 47 states, incl. D.C. (in 4 states—New Jersey, New York, North Carolina,Virginia—I did not have early exit poll results available, and the later results had already been amended to reflect input of actual vote totals, which rendered them corrupt as exit polls and useless for the purpose of checking the veracity of actual vote totals).

I noticed an overall red shift (to Bush) across the spectrum of states, but the shift was significantly nonuniform.

Having divided the 47 states examined into two groups, 35 noncritical states and 12 critical or suspect states (Nebraska included because of ES&S control and prior anomalies even though not a battleground state).

I calculated that the average discrepancy in the 35 safe states was a +1.4% red shift, that is the average of the vote totals in each state was 1.4% more favorable to Bush than what the exit polls predicted (= total movement of 2.8%).

In the 12 critical states (CO,FL,MI,MN,NE,NV,NH,NM,OH,PA,WI,IA) the average discrepancy was a 2.5% red shift (= total movement of 5.0%), nearly twice that in the safe states. This in spite of the fact that the average sample size in the critical states was nearly twice that in the noncritical states and should have produced significantly more accurate results.

Further, assuming a 3% margin of error and 95% confidence interval for each state poll (the standard Mitofksy protocol, but a conservative assumption here, since the sample sizes were significantly increased in critical states), the red shift exceeded the margin of error in 4 of the 12 critical states (and equalled it in a fifth).

The chance of this occurring in 4 of the 12 states in the absence of "mistabulation" can be computed using a simple probability equation and is approximately 0.002 or one in five-hundred. It's a relatively crude analysis and better analysis would have to wait on more complete data, but basically what it's telling us is that we can say with 99.8% certainty that "mistabulation" played some significant role in this election.

More...
We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately. B. Franklin

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Post by Conspiracy Theorist » 11-11-2004 08:54 AM

Tantalizingly suspicious, suggestive of fraud, but we need proof. Do you think we'll ever have it? If we do, Watergate will seem a picnic in comparison.

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Post by Devastated » 11-11-2004 09:49 AM

Again, it's years too late for electoral reform for the 2004 election!

But I'd sure like it for 2008. I think we should worry less about the polling mess that Kerry felt he had to concede to, and worry more about the electoral process itself.

I don't care whether you want to call it a "Conspiracy" or a rip-off or what. For a US election it was certainly a mess and I don't feel at all good about having participated in a universal farce.

To call it "fair and clean" means you've been tricked even worse than I was. This type of charade must not be repeated.
You don't have to believe everything that you think...

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Post by Ninerism » 11-11-2004 12:00 PM

Well, I may not be a mathematician or statistician, though it appears to me that something was afoot when Kerry was seeming to win, then all of a sudden by the end of the evening, it was Bush. Citizens of England actually went to bed thinking that it was Kerry who had won the election! Exit polls were that far askew?

Well, the above analysis seems to indicate that something happened along the way with those infernal machines, those ghost machines that leave no traces, no way to confirm the real votes taken! Anyone that runs a business -- meaning most any American with a household budget, too!!! -- knows the importance of validating the numbers, assuring accountability can occur with proper receipts etc etc etc.

Something is very fishy and stinky about this election once again. If DIEBOLD machines are manufactured by those who are most enamored with BUSH, and have a built-in bias for him or anyone, then there is likely a problem with any machines that leave no traceable evidence! Jeepers, that's common sense, I would think.

Ninerism

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Post by fabzilla » 11-11-2004 02:35 PM

They also said Dewey wins.. Too much emphasis is being read into "polls" and "voting trends" and not enough attention is being placed on the system that adds it all up. These Diebold machines are a joke, they need to go the way of the TI994A or the VIC20. There has to be a uniform system in place for all states, all counties, all people to use. The procedure needs to be taught in scruel and part of the curriculum, but that is another ball of wax. Until both sides stop bickering and making up excuses for losing and focus on what the citizens really need, this will always be the issue they blame.. I truly believe the overhaul must start with properly identifying the person who is supposedly registered and being able to have two ways to verify the results.. Machines only work the way they are designed and programmed. They don't program themselves. This was a scary year. I pray people raise their voices and push for a change for all our sakes

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Post by Cherry Kelly » 11-12-2004 03:16 PM

fabzilla - hi - sorry didn't say hi before... Now don't ya go knocking on that old Vic20 -- got one still works too! Great games (educational) for kidlets (grandkids).

UNIFORM voting -- never happen -- can't get any two sides to agree to anything. Now OH did set universal standard for their punch cards. (two corners punched)

I truly was dreading watching the shenanigans of holding up the cards to light and oh ya there's a scratch here - must have meant to be punched out -- sorry...

Can't use paper ones you put X or fill in -- why someone can't do that so nope can't have those. Pull levers -- nope those can be tampered with too. Touch screens - I'm surprised the MEDICAL association didn't yell -- all those germs from people touching those screens... ewww...

Beans in a jar! yaa -- then you can feed those beans to hungry -- nahhh --

okok -- reality - state of residence IDs - people who live in two states must identify themselves and get ONE ID for whatever State they live in for elections. Voting set up for one week across the entire USA. NO repeat NO media polls allowed until the day after ALL polls are closed.

I dunno -- I give up... any more suggestions?

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Post by fabzilla » 11-12-2004 03:30 PM

hello cherry,

I'd say that is a good start. But with the speed and intensity our "elected officials" work, it would probably take till Juvember of Stardate 356 squared to implement this.

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Post by Iris » 11-12-2004 06:36 PM

Cherry -- good point -- beans in a jar would be superior to what we have!

It's not about Kerry, he's the catalyst. If his being a catalyst to a fair vote can straighten out this messs and get the public to demand better, I say GO FOR IT! What is even sadder and more telling is the way our media is (or isn't) handling this. It's an outrage!
We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately. B. Franklin

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Post by Cherry Kelly » 11-13-2004 12:03 PM

I remember a few "bean in the jar" type voting things -- small areas - school kids in classrooms. Only problem with that - it means that people need to know HOW to count -- and without a calculator handy...

The problem with the "need to work on" election machines, processes -- in between electoral periods -- it gets shoved to the back burners as people are too busy with "other" things.

What really should have been stated - but wasn't or if it was it was shut up rather quickly - is the RESPONSIBILITY factor of each person voting - to make SURE that holes were punched through clearly - on punch cards, circles or boxes were filled in properly - etc. Now how difficult is it for ONE person to check their own punch card or paper?

As noted I don't like touch screen stuff - without a paper backup. Even if all it did was print out selection. Oh ya that would require someone smart enough to know how to load up little rolls of paper. How difficult would it be to have each person who goes in to vote on machine "X" to have to punch or pull a lever to show how many voters used that machine? (something with a date and time stamp) - be a surefire way of actually making sure that the total votes matches total number of voters on "X" machine.

just some thoughts.......

PS as noted elsewhere (some time ago) at the precinct where I vote - the total all the signed in voters and check it against total number of optic scans (approved scans - counted ones - sometimes people don't fill in their ballot and optic scanner spits it back out then and there for the voter to 'fix'). IF the totals - registered signed in voters - does not match the total votes, they physically count the paper ballots (no not votes, just total numbers of papers IN the box). One year it did happen - why - because one of the very LAST voters left his/her completed ballot in the booth... SO I know if our precinct can be SO detailed - so can others.
Last edited by Cherry Kelly on 11-13-2004 12:06 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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