Propagation de K7RA - 12 DEC 03

[Linnea]

SOLAR UPDATE

Ra the Sun god Tad "Seasons in the Sun" Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington,
reports: Declining sunspot numbers and high geomagnetic activity made for
rough conditions this week. Average daily sunspot numbers for the week
dropped by 57 percent from the previous week, and average daily solar flux
was down by 34 percent. Average daily planetary A index more than tripled
to 28.7.

Currently Earth is inside a high-speed solar wind. The interplanetary
magnetic field points north, but geomagnetic conditions would be even more
active if it pointed south. The wind is from a large coronal hole, and the
stream began affecting Earth on December 8. No sunspots now face Earth.

Solar flux is expected to stay below 100 until Tuesday, December 16, and
then rise suddenly Thursday and Friday, December 18-19.

Unfortunately, conditions should be rough for the ARRL 10-Meter Contest
this weekend. Predicted solar flux values for Friday through Monday,
December 12-15, are 85, 90, 90 and 95. Predicted planetary A index numbers
for the same period are 40, 35, 25 and 20. Ten-meter paths really need a
high MUF value to sustain them, and the low sunspot numbers we're seeing
now don't help.

Sunspot numbers for December 4 through 10 were 115, 88, 87, 53, 49, 23 and
46, with a mean of 65.9. The 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 111.7, 108.9, 92,
93.7, 92.2 and 89.2, with a mean of 100.5. Estimated planetary A indices
were 9, 43, 22, 15, 39, 31 and 42, with a mean of 28.7.

from ARRL 12 DEC 03 - online Newsletter

[Linnea]

Sheesh! One of the reasons I couldn't copy too well on 10 meters last night?