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Diogenes
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Post by Diogenes » 12-29-2011 12:22 PM

Raggedyann wrote: They do know and that's why they are trying to hang to what they've got.


Oh I get that - the fact is like SS is no longer sustainable in it's original format neiher are the bloated unrealistic benefits mandated by unions. The same business plan applies for and benefit program - there must be enough to float it and the reality is how can a private company or a nation for matter continue to fund these bloated benefits for those no longer contributing to the system.

As an example - at one time I knew the figures but GM has about 300,00 emplees and I think about 1M who are receiving retirement, health benefits. How do you support that when they are no longer contributing members of the revenue stream?

The unions had their day and were relevant many many years ago but now with employment laws on the books they are out of date and detrimental.
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Post by voguy » 12-29-2011 01:36 PM

Regardless of union or non-union, the issue is pretty easy to understand. You have income, and expense. If expenses exceed revenues, you're broke.

I don't see this as a union issue at all because even private business, local governments, and homeowners have to live by the financial rules. But unfortunately, those who have received the benefits in the past lack the intelligence to know that those benefits come from somewhere, which goes back to "If expenses exceed revenues, you're broke."

I tried explaining this concept to a teacher friend who is madder than hell that he now pays 7% of all healthcare premiums. The school system he works for is now bankrupt. Even if the school wished to cover the 7%, they don't have any money to make that happen. It slays me that "Paul" doesn't get this, as he's a math teacher.


:rolleyes:
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Post by Cherry Kelly » 12-29-2011 02:08 PM

DO not even begin to compare the union paid retirement with SS - totally different..in the WI situation. SS people have paid into SS - those union teachers haven't paid into retirement program...union retirement. Do the math! :)

The problem is - the Fed gov't has 'stolen' SS monies and used them in other programs.

Have said it before - originally those SS monies were to receive a MINIMUM of 2% interest per year. oops another lie by gov't. Of course when SS was started the ave. living age was not much over the retirement age...but strange - current baby boomers age 66 for full retirement - average age (death) is now 80yrs +1-2 months, 14 yrs past retirement age. Granted you can qualify for SS by having 40 quarters of work and SS being paid in - 10 yrs) - - - but how many people have worked ONLY 10 years? And the SS is figured only on $$$ that went into them - some exceptions exist but you can look them up on SS web site.

NO these unions paid in ZERO to their own retirement and ZERO for health care....and they are complaining because gee they might have to do what the rest of the world's working people do - PAY IN!

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Post by Fan » 12-29-2011 02:17 PM

The union is doing what it should be doing, and that is fighting for their members. It is like blaming a lawyer for trying to get a better settlement for their client. This is their job.

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Post by voguy » 12-29-2011 03:05 PM

Cherry Kelly wrote: DO not even begin to compare the union paid retirement with SS - totally different..in the WI situation. SS people have paid into SS - those union teachers haven't paid into retirement program...union retirement. Do the math! :)

The problem is - the Fed gov't has 'stolen' SS monies and used them in other programs.


Yeah ... and how do you intend to get it back and then dole it out to your SS recipients?

I have done the math, and unless you know of a way to make a buck turn into two-dollars, and you have the ability to FORCE a government to fork over money, you're out of luck.

You know, here's a perfect analogy. Where I work they used to buy us doughnuts every Friday morning. They did that for 35 years! Last year they cut that expense, so there are no more doughnuts. Now, I can bitch and moan all I want, and say I'm entitled to the doughnuts because when I was hired, it was one of the perks. But the fact is, there are no more doughnuts, and nobody is going to give me one tomorrow.

I understand what you're saying, Cherry, but I can hold my hand out and wait for the doughnut to appear, or just come to the understanding that there will be no doughnut, and if I want one, I better buy from Tim Horton.

The bigger lesson to be learned here is when agreeing to perks and entitlements, always know that nothing is forever.
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Post by Diogenes » 12-29-2011 06:25 PM

Cherry Kelly wrote: DO not even begin to compare the union paid retirement with SS - totally different..in the WI situation. SS people have paid into SS - those union teachers haven't paid into retirement program...union retirement. Do the math! :)

The problem is - the Fed gov't has 'stolen' SS monies and used them in other programs.

Have said it before - originally those SS monies were to receive a MINIMUM of 2% interest per year. oops another lie by gov't. Of course when SS was started the ave. living age was not much over the retirement age...but strange - current baby boomers age 66 for full retirement - average age (death) is now 80yrs +1-2 months, 14 yrs past retirement age. Granted you can qualify for SS by having 40 quarters of work and SS being paid in - 10 yrs) - - - but how many people have worked ONLY 10 years? And the SS is figured only on $$$ that went into them - some exceptions exist but you can look them up on SS web site


NO these unions paid in ZERO to their own retirement and ZERO for health care....and they are complaining because gee they might have to do what the rest of the world's working people do - PAY IN!


Correct - much more egregious.
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Post by Riddick » 05-09-2012 05:36 PM

Huge victory margin for Barrett; massive GOP turnout for Walker
By Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel

An election day largely bereft of real suspense managed to produce at least two eye-popping numbers Tuesday:

24 points: Tom Barrett’s massive statewide victory margin over Kathleen Falk in a Democratic Primary that was far more of a rout – and much less of a brawl – than once expected, punctuated by Barrett’s 31-point margin over Falk in Dane County, where she was county executive for 14 years.

626,538. The astonishing number of votes Gov. Scott Walker generated in an uncompetitive GOP primary, more votes than Barrett and Falk combined and almost as many as were cast for all the candidates on the Democratic side. It’s just not normal in politics for a major incumbent with token opposition to generate turnout on a par with a heavily contested race in the other party. It was an unexpected turnout bomb, a demonstration of Walker’s greatest political asset, even greater than his considerable money advantage -- the ability to mobilize his base.

Put it all together and Tuesday’s vote was a momentum boost to both candidates in a four-week drag-race of an election.

Barrett won 56 out of 72 counties, utterly dominating in the two big base counties of Milwaukee (where he beat Falk 72% to 25%) and Dane (where he won 61% to 31%). His biggest margins were in the northwest and the southeast, and he topped 60% in 11 counties.

While Barrett’s opposition among labor spent heavily to elect Falk, it critically backed off from frontal attacks once Barrett jumped into the race, began piling up party endorsements, cemented his lead in the polls and won a war of perception over which Democrat had the best shot of beating Walker.

That not only eased Barrett’s path to victory Tuesday but averted the destructive intra-party fight many Democrats feared. He emerged a fairly unscarred and unexpectedly resounding primary winner. It couldn’t have played out any better for him, other than the extremely sobering reminder Tuesday that Republicans are at least as dedicated to keeping Walker in power as Democrats are to driving him out.

It was as if Walker turned on a turnout switch on the eve of the primary, appearing on talk radio and on the stump to urge GOP voters looking ahead to June 5 to first deliver a show of strength for him on May 8.

Walker’s vote total was only 20% lower than the combined votes of his party’s presidential field in the April 3 Wisconsin Primary; and he drew 280,000 more votes than the GOP winner in that contest, Mitt Romney.

In the GOP bastion of Waukesha County, the Walker vote represented about 27% of all voting-age adults in the county (79,049 people).

In the Democratic bastion of Dane County, the Democratic vote represented about 28% of all voting-age adults in the county (105,437).

In effect, Republican Waukesha matched Democratic Dane’s turnout rate despite the fact that the GOP primary was meaningless.

In terms of total turnout (Republican and Democratic primaries combined) Ozaukee was number one in the state Tuesday, with 39.4% of voting-age adults going to the polls (based on 2010 population), followed by Waukesha at 38.8%. (Dane was seventh at 36.3%).

The Walker turnout phenomenon in the juggernaut GOP “WOW” counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington) is to many Democrats the single most daunting obstacle to defeating the incumbent governor.

“That group is extremely mobilized,” Robert Kraig of the liberal advocacy group, Citizen Action of Wisconsin, said in interview hours before the polls closed Tuesday. “They’re every bit as passionate as Walker opponents. It’s overwhelming (in those suburban counties) … It means that we need top mobilization just to match it … We need to perform at a top level across every constituency, because they’re going to.”

That’s why the size of the vote in Milwaukee June 5 is a major question for Democrats. Of the party’s two geographic bases, Madison is reliably high-turnout and unmistakably and deeply engaged in the recall fight. The city of Milwaukee is not reliably high-turnout and it remains to be seen how deeply engaged its voters are in the recall fight. Milwaukee Mayor Barrett enjoyed his biggest countywide margins in Milwaukee County Tuesday. But the county’s turnout rate was much lower than Dane’s: 17% of voting-age adults, or 123,638 people, voted in the Democratic primary. The turnout gap between Dane and Milwaukee is nothing new. But it will be vital for Democrats to narrow that gap and drive up Milwaukee turnout June 5 in order to offset the huge turnout Walker is expected to generate in the suburban counties outside Milwaukee.

There's also the broader question: is the sum total of roughly 670,000 votes generated by Democrats Tuesday a warning sign about the party's turnout June 5, when they will need far more than that number to defeat Walker?

“The Democrats should worry about turnout in June. They should put the GOTV machine into full gear,” said political scientist Barry Burden of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

The counter-argument is that Walker is the motivating force for Democrats as much as he is for Republicans, and that voting against him next month will be far more mobilizing for them than Tuesday’s primary was.

Either way, it’s a turnout game. Both sides have now shown in very concrete ways they are highly motivated. But it’s probably fair to say that between now and June 5, the bigger turnout questions are on the Democratic side.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/150760775.html

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Post by Riddick » 05-19-2012 11:56 AM

Image

From fox6now.com:
Marquette Univ. Law School poll shows Gov. Walker leads Barrett, 50%-44%
Posted on: 8:06 am, May 16, 2012, by Myra Sanchick, updated on: 03:11pm, May 16, 2012

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette University Law School poll shows Gov. Scott Walker leading Democratic challenger Tom Barrett, 50 percent to 44 percent among voters who say they will definitely vote on June 5th. With only three weeks to go until the recall election, only three percent of likely voters say they are undecided.

In the category of job performance, the Marquette University Law School poll says 50 percent approve of Gov. Walker to date, while 46 percent disapprove. In April, it was 47 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved.

37 percent of those polled by the Marquette University Law School say they like what Gov. Walker has done. 38 percent don’t like what he’s done. 22 percent say they like what he’s done, now that he’s done it.

“Any poll out there still has it relatively close, so we’re going to keep pushing. I’m going to keep standing up for the taxpayers, making that case as to why I was elected in the first place,” Walker said Wednesday.

When independents were asked about personal traits among the gubernatorial candidates, Gov. Walker was rated highest for “decisive” and lower for “fair.” Barrett was rated highest for “honest” and lower for “inspiring.”

“By all objective criteria he should be crushing me because he’s outspending me million at this point, if you look at all his allies. He’s probably spending 25 to 30 to one. By any objective analysis, he should be leading by 15 points,” Barrett said Wednesday.

This most recent poll was taken May 9th through the 12th, and surveyed 704 registered voters across the state. the results have a 4.1 percent margin of error.

The previous poll, taken at the end of April (before the primary) showed Walker with only a one percentage point lead over Barrett. At that time, 10 percent of voters said they were undecided.

When it comes to the governor’s race, poll director Charles Franklin says the results don’t show it’s time for anyone to say it’s over, and when it comes to poll opinions of what Governor Walker has done…”22 percent said they like what he did, but they don’t like how he did it. That’s a much bigger number than the undecided percent. Are those people able to be moved by the campaign in these last three or four weeks?” Franklin said.

The Marquette University Law School poll also shows Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch leads Mahlon Mitchell 47 percent to 41 percent. Kleefisch has a 25 percent favorable to 31 percent unfavorable rating. 43 percent have no opinion on the matter. Mitchell has a 19 percent favorite, 10 percent unfavorable rating and 71 percent with no opinion.

An interesting note, when those polled were asked whether they were absolutely certain they’ll vote on June 5th, 91 percent of Republicans said yes, 83 percent of Democrats said yes.

Those polled were also asked whether Wisconsin should keep the current law on collective bargaining. 50 percent said yes, 43 percent said no — and there were sharp differences by party.

On the presidential front, Republican front-runner Mitt Romney has moved into a tie with President Barack Obama in Wisconsin among likely voters. President Obama led in the MU polls January through April.

The Marquette University Law School has been surveying voter attitudes in Wisconsin every month throughout the year. The poll results will give a clearer picture about voters feelings regarding the gubernatorial recall candidates.

The next Marquette University Law School poll is set to be released May 30th.
Walker beat Barrett last time by just shy of 6 points. Interestingly enough, he leads in this poll by a similar margin...

Here's a state-wide visual of their latest 2010 Recall Re-do numbers mapped on a regional basis, with the islands of blue in a sea of red being the city of Milwaukee & the Madison metro area -

Image

And here's a mapping of final results from the last election showing both Barrett's and Walker's county-by-county victory margin ranges:

Image

My take? Talking in Yogi Berra terms 'it ain't over 'til it's over,' but if this poll is indeed indicative AND the pattern more or less holds between now and election day, June 5th could well be 'deja vu all over again'!

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Post by Riddick » 09-21-2012 07:30 PM

From watchdog.org:
  • WI: Week in Review — Ruling brings Act 10 to the forefront … again
    By Kirsten Adshead | September 21, 2012

    MADISON – Just when you thought the furor over Act 10 collective bargaining changes had died down, Judge Juan Colas steps in.

    Colas, from the Dane County Circuit Court, last Friday ruled that parts of Act 10 are unconstitutional, reigniting a battle that had largely slowed to a simmer and, potentially, throwing local budgets into turmoil.

    So Act 10 once again dominated the political news this week, in between reports of new polls that show Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race has been turned on its head and President Barack Obama seems to be doing well in the state.

    Impact of a ruling

    Just more than a year ago, Madison Teachers Inc. (the Madison teachers’ union) and Public Employees Local 61 filed a lawsuit arguing that provisions of Act 10 were unconstitutional, in part, because the Act only capped union workers’ salary hikes, but not those of nonunion workers.

    Last Friday, Colas agreed, saying the Act violates free speech, free association and equal representation rights guaranteed in the constitution.

    That, in theory, enables public employee to negotiate contracts that include raises bigger than cost-of-living adjustments.

    Dane County took swift action on that this week when the county board signed off a contact extension with five local unions that maintains much of what already was approved through 2014.

    But the legal wrangling is far from over. There still is the appeals process, and Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen has asked Colas to stay the ruling so it won’t be in effect while higher courts consider the lawsuit.

    Colas’ decision could take a few weeks.

    Meanwhile, local governments are drawing up budgets without knowing, for sure, how to account for savings passed under Act 10 that might ultimately, now, be ruled unconstitutional.

    Sue Schnorr, director of business services for the Fond du Lac School District, said it’s a game of wait-and-see.

    “I don’t see anything we can do at this point. We’re just following the news and holding out to see what happens,” she said.

    Oh, yes, elections are coming up

    Not to be forgotten, the November elections that will decide which party controls Congress and the White House are less than seven weeks away.

    That can be an eternity in politics, but Democrats got a string of good news this week to indicate that, as of this moment, their chances of keeping a Senate majority and the presidency are improving.

    In Wisconsin, 2nd Congressional District Rep. Tammy Baldwin, has taken a nine-point lead against her GOP opponent, former Gov. Tommy Thompson, according to the Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday.

    Her 50-41 lead among likely voters flips the results of the August poll, in which Thompson was ahead by nine points.

    The Marquette poll also shows Obama leading GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney by 14 points, a big jump from the three-point lead Obama had a month earlier.

    Marquette interviewed 601 likely voters. The margin of error was 4.1 percentage points.

    Baldwin’s and Obama’s leads in the Marquette poll are significantly larger than in other recent polls, but the trend line for the Democrats, overall, has been positive.

    A new Swing State Poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University, the New York Times and CBS News shows the Senate race tied at 47 percent and Obama with a six-point lead in Wisconsin, 51-45.

    And according to a new Fox News poll, Obama is ahead of Romney by seven points in Ohio and Virginia, and by five points in Florida.

    Analysts say this has been one of Romney’s toughest weeks:
  • He was criticized for seemingly attacking the Obama administration’s foreign policy immediately after the Libya attack.
  • Politico then published a report alleging internal problems in the Romney campaign.
  • And then came the leaked video in which, speaking to donors, Romney characterized the 47 percent of Americans who don’t pay income tax as “dependent upon government,” saying they “believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you name it.”
  • Worth repeating …

    “We’re broke. We have no money.” – Tommy Thompson, explaining why his campaign has been low-key since he won the Aug. 14 GOP primary.

    Contact Adshead at kadshead@wisconsinreporter.com

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The Scott Walker Hypothesis

Post by Riddick » 08-11-2014 02:13 PM

The Walker team’s strategy is to rely on his rock-solid support among likely Republican voters and to pick up a small number of independents who will give him the benefit of the doubt. Incumbent governors don’t usually lose, and at least some swing voters have now voted for Walker in two elections.

Burke’s strategy, with its emphasis on tempering partisanship, assumes there are a lot of swing voters who have been turned off by Walker’s brand of politics. Burke’s forces were heartened to see that in the Marquette poll, she and Walker were even with self-described independents, after she had trailed him by 9 in May—possible proof of concept.

Burke will need those swing voters, because Democrats don’t traditionally turn out the way Republicans do in nonpresidential election years. The goal for Democrats is to turn out some of the million or so “drop-off voters,” who participate in presidential elections but sit out the other ones. Hatred of Walker among liberals was not enough to help his Democratic opponent in the recall, and it might not be enough now.

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