Elections 2009-2012

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Re: Poll: Lieberman Would Lose 2012 Re-Election In Landslide

Post by rumike » 12-16-2009 06:33 AM

SETIsLady wrote: A lot can happen in four years, but right now it doesn't look like Lieberman has too many options. He can't run as a Democrat, he would still lose as a Republican, and there's no reason to believe that staying as an independent will provide much more of an opportunity.


I would say the Dems gave him enough rope to hang himself, but unfortunately we gave him enough to first hang everybody else, too.
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Post by racehorse » 12-16-2009 06:48 AM

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix ... rss=thefix

The Fix

Political News & Analysis By Chris Cilliza

December 16, 2009; 5:29 AM ET

Polling shows Democrats losing health care PR fight

1. Democrats are losing the public relations fight over the health care overhaul currently being debated in Congress, according to data in the new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Majorities believe the costs of their own health care as well as the nation's overall health care will rise if the bill becomes a law. Just 37 percent believe the quality of care they receive will be better under the new plan as compared to 53 percent who said the care would be superior if the status quo was maintained. One bright spot in the numbers for the Obama administration: a slim majority -- 51 percent -- said that government intervention is "necessary to control costs and expand coverage" while 46 percent said that the plan will do "more harm than good." The problem in trying to sell the American public on the overhaul of a major social program is that raising doubts is far easier than calming nerves. The bill is, by nature, sweeping in scope and confusing to the average American who doesn't read Ezra Klein every day. In the face of complexity, the easier answer -- "no" -- almost always wins out. That simple fact is why passing some sort of health care bill is only half the battle. The other half will be in going out across the country in 2010 and selling it. That work will fall, primarily, to members of Congress, and how they succeed at it may make or break many a political career.

2. Cross Missouri Democratic Rep. Ike Skelton off the list of potential retirees in 2010. In a statement to the Fix, Skelton political adviser Ken Morley was unequivocal: "Without doubt, Chairman Skelton will seek reelection and will be making a formal announcement later this year." That pronouncement should be greeted with a sigh of relief in Democratic ranks as Skelton was widely speculated on as a potential retirement. Skelton's full speed ahead decision doesn't mean he is out of the woods electorally, however. Republicans have aggressively recruited against Skelton -- former state representative Vicky Hartzler is the preferred candidate of national Republicans -- and the west-central 4th district went strongly for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in 2008. It's also not clear whether Skelton, who hasn't dipped below 60 percent of the vote since 1982(!) is ready for a full-scale campaign although his association with Morley, who managed Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon's 2008 race, is a good sign. With Skelton and Rep. Chet Edwards (Texas) formally declaring their intentions to run, speculation turns to the likes of Reps. John Spratt (S.C.), Vic Snyder (Ark.), Marion Berry (Ark.) Leonard Boswell (Iowa) and Ben Chandler (Ky.). ALSO READ: Rep. Collin Peterson (Minn.) dismisses as "baloney" talk that he might retire in 2010.

3. Keep an eye on former Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean (Vt.) in the final days of negotiations on the Senate health care bill. Dean, a doctor, is a hero to many liberals from his 2004 presidential bid and his tenure at the head of the party, and still has the ear of some of the more progressive senators. Dean made news on Tuesday in an interview with Vermont Public Radio when he suggested the best course of action now was to "kill the bill" rather than pass the legislation off as real reform. In an interview on MSNBC's "Countdown" Tuesday night, Dean doubled down on his opposition insisting "this is not real reform, it's not health care reform where there are no choices." He added that the current bill mirrored that which was passed in Massachusetts by then Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and slammed Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and others as "pro insurance." It's still hard for us to see liberals in Congress abandoning the Obama administration on final passage of a health care bill but Dean's outspoken opposition should not be discounted as he speaks for much of the party's base, which is deeply unhappy about the compromises being made.

4. For the last month or so, former Florida state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) has had all the momentum in his Senate primary race against Gov. Charlie Crist (R). Now comes a Rasmussen Research poll that shows the race tied at 43 percent, a dramatic gain for Rubio since Rasmussen last polled the race in October. While the poll is likely to bolster Rubio and his supporters, it seems to paint a rosier picture than other survey data on the race. Take a late October Quinnipiac poll for example that showed Crist's lead over Rubio narrowing but with the governor still ahead 50 percent to 35 percent. That poll seems slightly more in line with the current state of the race than the Rasmussen survey; neither candidate is doing any serious voter contact (TV ads) just yet so a significant change in the numbers seem somewhat unlikely. What is clear, however, is that Rubio's strides have woken up Crist and his team. Daily now, releases come across the transom from Crist hitting Rubio as less conservative than he says he is -- Crist scored a direct hit last week when Rubio acknowledged he would have accepted some of the economic stimulus funds for the state.

5. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) makes his maiden presidential voyage to New Hampshire today, speaking to and helping to raise money for state Senate Republicans in Concord. Tpaw's address will focus heavily on his personal story -- raised in a blue collar family, first in his family to go to college -- and the needs to reach out beyond the traditional Republican base to expand the party, according to a source briefed on the remarks. Pawlenty will also make a stop at the headquarters of the Manchester Union-Leader (and its influential conservative editorial page) to begin a courting process that he hopes will end with the Leader endorsement in the 2012 primary contest. (The paper endorsed Sen. John McCain in 2008 -- he won -- and Steve Forbes in 2000 -- he didn't.)

6. Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro's call to "recall" Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) might not have any literal significance -- there isn't a recall provision in Nutmeg State law -- but from a symbolic perspective it's quite interesting. DeLauro and her husband, Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, are extremely close personal friends with White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel -- he lived in their basement when he was serving in Congress. Emanuel has been blamed by the liberal left for coddling and kowtowing to Lieberman in the health care debate, making DeLauro's outspoken opposition to the Connecticut Independent all the more intriguing.

7. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is using former Alaska governor Sarah Palin to raise money, painting a picture of what Washington would be like "if a bunch of new senators -- inspired by Sarah Palin and the tea party crowd -- took over." The fundraising appeal, written by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, goes on to cite efforts by Senate candidates like Rob Simmons (Conn.) and Mark Kirk (Ill.) to court Palin and the conservative wing of the party she represents; "if they win, they will be doing the bidding of Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and their legions of fans," adds Kerry. Palin has now entered vaunted territory -- not only is she the biggest fundraising draw for Republicans (and don't let anyone tell you differently) but she is also a major incentive for Democrats to give money as well. It's a sign of her political potency -- for good and for ill.

8. ICYMI: In our "Live Fix" chat yesterday, we offered our list of the Senate races that just missed our top 10 of the decade. Among the honorable mentions: South Dakota 2002 -- Tim Johnson (D) vs John Thune (R), Michigan 2000 -- Debbie Stabenow (D) vs Spence Abraham (R), Washington 2000 -- Maria Cantwell (D) vs Slate Gordon (R), New Hampshire 2002 -- Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs John Sununu (R), Tennessee 2006 -- Harold Ford Jr. (D) vs Bob Corker (R). Did we miss any?

9. The Post's "Political Stump" quiz today focuses on "hot House seats." WHOAH. Take it -- if you dare ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/quiz/politics.html ).

10. The new Boeing 787 Dreamliner made its first test flight on Tuesday from Seattle to, um, Seattle. The plane is made of plastics rather than aluminum and is 20 percent more fuel efficient than the current fleets. (Check out this AWESOME graphic of the plane and its innovations.) "Is it a relief? Yes," said Mike Carriker, the pilot who flew the Dreamliner. "Was it great fun? Yes. Would I like to go and get another 80,000 pounds of gas and good weather and go again, you bet I would."
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Post by racehorse » 12-16-2009 07:21 AM

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm? ... 97AD3A9151

Tennessee: 2010 election crucible

By: Jessica Taylor

December 16, 2009
04:30 AM EST

Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon’s retirement announcement Monday underscored what was already becoming clear: In 2010, no state will experience more congressional election action than Tennessee.

One House incumbent from the state is expected to face a serious challenge in November. At least two incumbents, one in each party, are likely to get a serious primary challenge. Then there are three open House seats, two of which are in serious jeopardy of flipping to the Republican Party. On top of all that, Tennessee will feature an open governor’s race.

All told, six of the state’s nine House seats appear likely to be seriously contested — a remarkable development in a heavily gerrymandered Congress where, even amid political volatility, most incumbents will still have safe passage to reelection in 2010.

“Take a look at the country as a whole; there’s not a lot of competition out there. Tennessee stands in a bit of contrast,” said Vanderbilt University political science professor John Geer, who has written extensively about campaigns and elections. “I expect both parties’ congressional committees will invest a lot of money in Tennessee because you can move a couple of seats one way or another, and that’s not true for the bulk of the states,” Geer said.

Some of the action is place-specific, determined by singular circumstances. On one side of the state, in the Memphis-based 9th District, Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen faces yet another racially tinged primary challenge that pits the two-term incumbent, who is white, against former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton, who is African-American. At issue is lingering resentment over white representation of a mostly minority district — a fact that has left Tennessee with no African-American members of Congress.

On the other side of the state, in the heavily Republican 1st District in East Tennessee, GOP Rep. Phil Roe appears likely to face a primary rematch against David Davis, whom Roe ousted in a bitter, razor-close 2008 primary. Davis told POLITICO he is “strongly leaning” toward entering the race in 2010 to regain his old seat.

Three open House seats will be contested next year. Two of them offer the prospect of changing party control for the first time in decades. While the Chattanooga-based 3rd District vacated by GOP Rep. Zach Wamp, who is running for the open governor’s seat, will likely remain Republican, Bart Gordon’s Middle Tennessee-based 6th District and retiring Democratic Rep. John Tanner’s West Tennessee-based 8th District are being vigorously contested by Republicans who believe that the two conservative-minded seats will flip now that the longtime incumbents are not seeking reelection.

Rep. Lincoln Davis, another Democrat representing a conservative-leaning district, seems headed for a tough reelection challenge from physician Scott DesJarlais, who has gained notice for his solid early fundraising. Spying an opportunity in the wake of the Gordon and Tanner retirements, national Republicans are already on the attack against Davis in a district that John McCain won in a landslide.

“In terms of its size relative to other states, you can make a good case that Tennessee is the epicenter of our effort to take back the House,” said Andy Sere, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “We’ve got three very competitive seats there, and I think Tennessee is a good demonstration of how the shifting political environment has put Democrats back on their heels.”

Democrats insist it’s all bluster they’ve heard before in Tennessee, where Republicans have touted recruits in past years only to see them fall short.

“Every election year, national Republicans beat their drums about winning congressional races in Tennessee, and year after year Tennessee voters prove them wrong by electing independent-minded Democrats like Lincoln Davis, Bart Gordon and John Tanner,” said Jesse Ferguson, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman.

Davis’s chief of staff, Beecher Fraser, said voters will base their choice on their own representative rather than the national party. He emphasized that Davis is active in his community and that Democrats are not treating this challenge differently than earlier ones.

“People are anti-incumbent if folks don’t know who the incumbent is,” Fraser said. “I think as long as people have done a great job of representing their district, they don’t have anything to worry about.”

Tennessee Republicans think frustration in the state over national issues such as health care and the economy will resonate next year at the voting booth.

“There’s a lot of concern in Tennessee about the direction of the country, and I think that’s why you’re seeing a lot of people coming forward, running for Congress, running for state Legislature, running for governor,” said state GOP Chairman Chris Devaney. “They see there’s an arrogance involved in trying to craft policy in Washington, and it’s just not the direction they want the country to go.”

Former Tennessee GOP Chairman Chip Saltsman compared the mood to 1994, when Republicans captured both the state’s U.S. Senate seats from Democrats and won the governor’s mansion. Republican Fred Thompson won a special Senate race for the seat vacated by Al Gore, and Democratic Sen. Jim Sasser was dealt a stunning defeat by Republican Bill Frist, then a political newcomer. Gordon was also held to his lowest election percentage ever that year, winning with only 51percent of the vote.

Tennessee Democrats dismiss GOP predictions of pickups as too optimistic but say they are aware of the national mood and the impact it could have.

“I think certainly we know historically that the off-election year provides an opportunity for the party out of power, so we’re mindful of that, so that’s one thing that could be driving their interest,” said state Democratic Party Chairman Chip Forrester.
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Post by racehorse » 12-16-2009 08:31 AM

http://cnn.site.printthis.clickability. ... rID=211911

Lieberman won't rule out run as Republican in 2012

From Dana Bash, CNN

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

* Independent senator's stance on health care has angered some Democrats

* "All options are open," former Democrat says of re-election race

* Lieberman still sits with Democratic caucus in Senate


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman, a former Democrat who sits with Democratic caucus, said Tuesday that he would not rule out running for re-election in 2012 as a Republican.

Lieberman angered his colleagues in the Democratic caucus this week by threatening to torpedo health care legislation if it contains a government-run public health insurance or an expansion of Medicare.

Lieberman said he wasn't sure which party, if any, he would represent in his next election.

"I like being an independent, so that's definitely a possibility," the Connecticut senator said. "But I'd say all options are open."

He called running as a Republican "unlikely" but added that he wouldn't "foreclose any possibility."

"I've reached the stage in my career where I'm not measuring every step I take based on how it's going to affect the next election," Lieberman said. "I think if you do that, you end up compromising the quality of your service."

In 2000, Lieberman was Al Gore's running mate when Democrats lost the closest presidential national election in U.S. history. Six years later, he was defeated in the Democratic primary and then ran as an independent to win re-election to the Senate.

Lieberman still sits with the Democratic caucus, which holds 60 seats in the 100-member Senate, the minimum amount necessary to overcome a filibuster.

That dynamic allowed Lieberman to assert his will in the health care debate by threatening to join a Republican filibuster if the health care bill contained the public option or Medicare expansion he opposes.

He acknowledged that his stance angered Democratic colleagues but said he acted on principle, not politics.

"I knew some of them were upset about positions I'd taken," Lieberman said. "But like each of them, I didn't get elected by telling my voters in Connecticut that I would follow the majority of my caucus even if I thought on some things they were wrong. We each have to do what we think is right."

Taking a stand in the polarized political environment means "a bunch of people will think you've done something great and a bunch of people will think you've done something awful," Lieberman said.

However, Lieberman's stance on the health care bill could prompt a backlash from liberal Democrats. He was criticized by liberal groups, and even his wife -- who formerly worked for a pharmaceutical company -- was targeted.

"I've done what I thought was right, but it's no fun to have your colleagues be angry at you," Lieberman said. "It's no fun to have your wife attacked. But, you know, you got to do what you think is right."
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Post by racehorse » 12-16-2009 10:06 AM

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/polit ... 54837.html

Amid rumbling discontent, Democrats head for the exits

By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst

December 16, 2009

While Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid scrambles to assemble 60 Democratic votes for health care legislation that, according to the realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls, is opposed by a 53 percent-to-38 percent margin, several Democratic members of the House are scrambling for the exits on what is starting to look like a sinking ship.

You may noticed that I avoided using the cliche "rats leaving the sinking ship," because the four Democratic House members who over the last three weeks announced their decisions to retire rather than run for ree-lection cannot fairly be characterized as rats.

To the contrary, Dennis Moore (Kansas 3), John Tanner (Tennessee 8), Brian Baird (Washington 3) and Bart Gordon (Tennessee 6) are competent House members who among them have won election to Congress 36 times. Gordon is chairman of the House Science Committee; Tanner was offered an appointment to succeed Al Gore in the Senate in 1992; Baird was lead sponsor of measures to ensure the continuity of Congress in time of national disaster. All have claims to significant legislative accomplishments.

And to political success in marginal Democratic territory. Gordon and Tanner represent districts that voted heavily for John McCain in 2008; Moore's usually Republican district gave Barack Obama a small majority; Baird's suburban district has voted at just about the national average in the last three presidential elections.

All four cited plausible personal reasons for calling it quits, and none can be unaware that there is a robust job market in Washington for former Democratic congressmen with good political skills. Members of Congress make $174,000 a year; heads of trade associations make upward of $741,000 and don't have to return to home districts on weekends.

All four of these retiring members faced the prospect of tougher opposition in 2010 than they have encountered in years. Tanner and Gordon are from what I call the Jacksonian belt, the area settled by Scots-Irish southwest from West Virginia to Texas, where Obama ran poorly in both primaries and the general election last year. Polls in nearby Jacksonian Arkansas have shown Democratic incumbents running even with or behind unknown Republican challengers.

Moore and Baird are from suburban districts where their views on cultural issues have been a political asset. But in the gubernatorial elections last month in Virginia and New Jersey, suburban voters brushed aside cultural issues and voted for Republicans who ran against higher taxes and big government. That suggests that Democrats in suburban House districts can't expect to match Obama's 2008 showings next year.

These four Democrats are not the only House members who aren't running for re-election, but all of the 12 Republican retirees and all but one of the seven other Democratic retirees are leaving the House to run for statewide office.

The question now is whether more Democrats of this ilk will choose to retire -- something House Democratic leaders have been working to prevent. They're very much aware that Republicans in 1994 won some 21 open seats in which Democratic incumbents did not seek re-election, nearly half the 52 seats the Republicans gained when they won control of the House that year.

Public opinion expresses itself in the legislative process in various ways. Democrats' current large majority in the House, which has enabled them to pass unpopular cap-and-trade and health care legislation, is largely the product of public discontent with George W. Bush's perceived nonfeasance on Katrina in 2005 and perceived malfeasance in Iraq in 2005 and later.

These four decisions to retire, and similar decisions by other Democrats that may come, seem (for all disclaimers of personal reasons) to be the product of public discontent with the policies of the Obama administration and congressional Democratic leaders in 2009. Such discontent, perceptible only in the Jacksonian belt last year, has now clearly spread to the suburbs of major metropolitan areas.

The odds are still against Republicans picking up the 41 seats they need for a House majority. But it's interesting that when Massachusetts Democrat Michael Capuano, fresh from a second-place finish in the primary for Edward Kennedy's Senate seat, was asked to tell the Democratic caucus what he had learned on the campaign trail, he replied in two words: "You're screwed." How many of those listening decided that it would be a good idea to spend more time with the family after 2010?
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Post by racehorse » 12-17-2009 01:59 AM

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1261003 ... #printMode


* The Wall Street Journal

* DECEMBER 17, 2009

Democrats' Blues Grow Deeper in New Poll

By PETER WALLSTEN

WASHINGTON -- Less than a year after Inauguration Day, support for the Democratic Party continues to slump, amid a difficult economy and a wave of public discontent, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The findings underscored how dramatically the political landscape has changed during the Obama administration's first year. In January, despite the recession and financial crisis, voters expressed optimism about the future, the new president enjoyed soaring approval ratings, and congressional leaders promised to swiftly pass his ambitious agenda.

In December's survey, for the first time, less than half of Americans approved of the job President Barack Obama was doing, marking a steeper first-year fall for this president than his recent predecessors.

Also for the first time this year, the electorate was split when asked which party it wanted to see in charge after the 2010 elections. For months, a clear plurality favored Democratic control.

The survey suggests that public discontent with Mr. Obama and his party is being driven by an unusually grim view of the country's status and future prospects.

A majority of Americans believe the U.S. is in decline. And a plurality now say the U.S. will be surpassed by China in 20 years as the top power.

Democrats' problems seem in part linked to their ambitious health-care plan, billed as the signature achievement of Mr. Obama's first year. Now, for the first time, more people said they would prefer Congress did nothing on health care than who wanted to see the overhaul enacted.

"For Democrats, the red flags are flying at full mast," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "What we don't know for certain is: Have we reached a bottoming-out point?"

The biggest worry for Democrats is that the findings could set the stage for gains by Republican candidates in next year's elections. Support from independents for the president and his party continues to dwindle. In addition, voters intending to back Republicans expressed far more interest in the 2010 races than those planning to vote for Democrats, illustrating how disappointment on the left over attempts by party leaders to compromise on health care and other issues is damping enthusiasm among core party voters.

But public displeasure with Democrats wasn't translating directly into warmth for Republicans. Twenty-eight percent of voters expressed positive feelings about the GOP -- a number that has remained constant through the Democrats' decline over the summer and fall. Only 5% said their feelings toward the Republicans were "very positive."

And in one arena, Afghanistan, Mr. Obama appeared to have some success in winning support for his planned troop surge. Liberals remain largely opposed to the strategy, but in fewer numbers compared with before Mr. Obama made his case in a speech at West Point. Overall, by 44% to 41%, a plurality believe his strategy is the right approach.

Still, the survey paints a decidedly gloomy picture for Democrats, who appear to be bearing the brunt of public unease as unemployment has risen from 7.6% to 10% since Mr. Obama took office. Just 35% of voters said they felt positively about the Democratic Party, a 14-point slide since February. Ten percent felt "very positive."

An exclusive NBC/WSJ poll has Barack Obama's popularity below 50 percent for the first time in his presidency. But, as WSJ's Peter Wallsten points out, the news for the GOP isn't all good.

"Overall, it's just a depressing time right now," said Mike Ashmore, 23 years old, of Lansdale, Pa., an independent who supported Mr. Obama last year but now complained about the president's lack of action on jobs.

Julie Edwards, 52, an aircraft technician for Boeing Co. in Mesa, Ariz., said she voted Democratic in the past two elections but wasn't sure how she would vote next time. She wondered why Wall Street firms were bailed out when average Americans needed help. "We can bail out Wall Street, but everybody else has to suffer in spades for it," she said.

Democratic leaders, while bracing for losses next year, have argued that unlike the 1994 elections, in which Republicans gained 54 seats and took the House majority, Democrats would survive 2010 in part because they are taking steps to avoid that possibility. Republicans must gain 41 seats to take control.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday that Democrats "fully intend to be in the majority" after November 2010, and she was now shifting to "campaign mode" to help candidates. Party officials are leaning on a number of longtime colleagues to fight for their seats rather than retire.

The Journal/NBC survey found Ms. Pelosi's presence on the campaign trail could do more harm than good. Fifty-two percent said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who agreed with the speaker almost all the time, compared with 42% who felt that way about candidates siding with Republican leaders.

For Mr. Obama, who has relied on his personal popularity to retain the clout he needs to enact his legislative agenda, the survey pointed to troubling signs.

A majority for the first time disapproved of his handling of the economy. And the public's personal affection for the president, a consistent strong suit, has begun to fray. Fifty percent now feel positive about him, six points lower than in October and an 18-point drop since his early weeks in office.

Democrats' troubles can be attributed in part to changing feelings among some core supporters. A third of voters 34 and under, a group that turned out heavily for Democrats last year, feel negative toward the Democratic Party. And just 38% of Hispanics feel positive, down sharply from 60% in February.

The survey, which was conducted Dec. 11-14, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
--
Nomaan Merchant contributed to this article.
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Post by racehorse » 12-17-2009 11:59 AM

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... .DTL&tsp=1

Whitman has wide lead over her GOP rivals

Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer

Thursday, December 17, 2009

(12-16) 21:16 PST SAN FRANCISCO -- Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who has spent more than $20 million in her campaign to become California's next governor, holds commanding leads over her two GOP competitors, while nearly half the party's likely voters are undecided, a new poll shows.

Whitman dominates with 32 percent support among Republican voters, leading former South Bay Rep. Tom Campbell by 20 points and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner by 24 points, according to the Public Policy Institute of California's first survey on the 2010 governor's race.

On the Democratic side, former two-term governor and state Attorney General Jerry Brown, who has yet to formally declare his intention to run for governor, leads each of the Republicans in head-to-head matchups but does not hold a majority of the vote against any of them.

Brown, a former mayor of Oakland, leads Whitman, who has never run for public office, by just six points, 43 to 37 percent. He holds more robust leads over Campbell, the former state finance director and dean of UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business, 46 to 34 percent, and wealthy Silicon Valley entrepreneur Poizner, 47 to 31 percent.

While all voters are evenly divided in their favorable or unfavorable views of Brown, 69 percent of voters under 35 years old - who were not born when he was first was elected governor in 1974 - have no opinion of him, the poll shows.

With less than six months until the June primary and nearly a year until the general election in November, barely one-third of likely voters are satisfied with their pick of candidates in the gubernatorial primary, 42 percent are not satisfied and one-quarter still don't know.

Republicans are the least satisfied: Just 25 percent like their choices, compared with 38 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of independents, the poll showed.

"The lack of attention and enthusiasm suggests that people don't see this gubernatorial election as the answer to their problems," said PPIC President and CEO Mark Baldassare. "There's a huge undecided factor in the GOP primary, and these candidates aren't well-known at this point."

The poll suggests "it will take a lot of resources for these candidates to get known - and it will take a lot to get the voters to the point where they're focused and listening to the candidates, never mind what their policies are," he added.

The poll of 2,004 California residents was taken Dec. 1-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

oll highlights

Here are other key findings of the survey:

Meg who? Meg Whitman has spent millions bombarding state radio waves with her message but half of likely voters haven't heard of her or don't hold a view of her. More than two-thirds of women don't have an opinion of the only woman in the governor's race, while 51 percent of men have no opinion.

Independent voters. They make up one in five voters and are evenly divided in a head-to-head race between Whitman (37 percent) and Jerry Brown (36 percent). They hold a far more favorable view of Whitman (28 percent favorable to 18 percent unfavorable) than of Brown (39 percent unfavorable to 34 percent favorable).

Residents' dour mood. On economic issues, 75 percent of Californians say the state is headed in the wrong direction while 60 percent say the state is in a "serious" recession.

Ballot measures. On issues that may appear on ballots next year, more than half of likely voters say lowering the two-thirds threshold to pass a state budget and legalizing same-sex marriage are "very important," while marijuana legalization was deemed important by just 38 percent of voters.

National issues. Californians' approval of President Obama (61 percent) is far more robust than their view of Congress (38 percent), numbers that have held steady since September.
-

Source: Public Policy Institute of California.
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Post by racehorse » 12-17-2009 12:03 PM

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/ ... vania.html

Corbett Holds Solid Leads in Pennsylvania

A new Quinnipiac poll ( http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1406 ) in Pennsylvania finds Tom Corbett (R) with a big lead over Jim Gerlach (R) for the Republican nomination for governor and holds double-digit leads over the top candidates in the wide-open race for the Democratic nomination.

Corbett leads Dan Onorato (D), 45% to 30%, and tops Jack Wagner (D), 43% to 33%.
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Post by racehorse » 12-17-2009 01:08 PM

http://www.kentucky.com/513/v-print/story/1063730.html

Posted on Thu, Dec. 17, 2009

Ohio's Traficant contemplates return to Congress

By THOMAS J. SHEERAN
Associated Press Writer

Former Rep. James Traficant, who was recently released from prison after serving seven years for corruption, said Thursday that he is "proud of being an ex-con" and may try to return to Congress.

Traficant, a Democrat who was elected to nine terms from Youngstown before he was kicked out of the House, said he will circulate nominating petitions in three House districts. He didn't specify which, but the three districts closest to his hometown are all held by Democrats.

He deflected a question on whether he would run next year as a Democrat, Republican or independent, saying that would be decided in time.

Traficant said some supporters have suggested that he run for president. "I have more of a national following than I realize," said Traficant, who didn't rule out a White House run.

He said he will decide on his political plans next month. He discussed his options at a news conference at which he pitched the idea of a Youngstown-area casino run by Native Americans. He said required tribal status is pending.

Traficant, in a wide-ranging news conference streamed live in Youngstown, displayed his freewheeling style, alleging prosecutorial misconduct in his case, criticizing Ohio for omitting Youngstown from a November ballot issue that approved casinos in four bigger cities and denouncing an old nemesis, the Internal Revenue Service.

Traficant offered to help anyone facing scrutiny from the IRS and laughed at his self-described role as ex-con ex-congressman. "I'm proud of being an ex-con, by the way," he said.

He was released in September after serving time for racketeering, bribery, obstruction of justice and tax evasion.

Traficant, whose wild hair contributed to an offbeat reputation, was convicted in a raucous trial in 2002 of bribery and racketeering for accepting bribes from businessmen and taking kickbacks from staff members. He then was expelled from Congress, only the second House member since the Civil War to be ousted for unethical conduct.

Although he's not a lawyer, Traficant defended himself at his trial but didn't testify. His self-defense led to frequent clashes with the judge over what questions might be asked and how.

His conviction would not bar Traficant from running for Congress. Traficant ran for re-election from prison, losing to U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, a Democrat who still represents Youngstown in Congress.
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FILE - In this April 11, 2002 file photo, U.S. Rep. James Traficant Jr. arrives at the federal courthouse in Cleveland to hear the verdict in his bribery and corruption trial. Traficant, who was elected to nine terms as a Democrat from Youngstown, said he may try to return to Congress Thursday Dec. 17, 2009. Traficant was released in September 2009 after serving time for racketeering, bribery, obstruction of justice and tax evasion
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Post by racehorse » 12-17-2009 03:22 PM

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30714.html

Gary Johnson emerges as the next Ron Paul

By: Jonathan Martin

December 17, 2009

04:38 AM EST

Former New Mexico Republican Gov. Gary Johnson is a teetotaling triathlete who looks the part of the laid-back Mountain West politician.

But don’t let the jeans and black mock turtleneck he's sporting on his new website fool you: Johnson is starting to sound like a mad-as-hell populist with an eye cast on 2012 and the building fury aimed at Washington.

“I’m finding myself really angry over spending and the deficit,” he said in an interview with POLITICO this week. “I’m finding myself really angry over what’s happening in the Middle East, the decision to stay in Afghanistan indefinitely. I’m angry about cap and trade. And I’ve been on record for a long time on the failed war on drugs.”

Is that enough to design a presidential campaign around? It might be, at a time of tea parties, rage at bailouts, job loss and general voter discontent. And there is plainly an opportunity for some politician to harness the anti-establishment, populist grass-roots fervor that is right leaning but untethered to any party at the moment.

It’s what Ron Paul tried to do in last year’s presidential campaign, but Johnson may better positioned to ride the populist wave than the longtime Texas GOP congressman. For one thing, the anti-establishment energy was not at the fever pitch then that it’s nearing now. And, unlike the unlikely Paul, a 73-year-old who got interested in elected politics when Richard Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1971, Johnson is telegenic, is media savvy and, equally important, has twice been easily elected to statewide office.

A libertarian-leaning Republican, Johnson this month launched “Our America,” a group that aims to draw attention to the principles of limited government at home and noninterventionism abroad.

But as the subtitle on the website indicates, “The Gary Johnson Initiative” is also designed to elevate the profile of the ascetic and unconventional former governor, who is known nationally — if at all — for his support of legalizing drugs.

Johnson is doing little to knock down the idea that he may be looking toward a 2012 presidential run.

“Is there room for something a little different?” he replied to a question about whether there was an opportunity for a new GOP voice emphasizing a different approach. “I’d like to think I’m putting that to the test.”


Johnson is extremely cautious in responding to direct questions about his prospective White House ambitions, citing the legal restrictions on his 501(c)4 group, but he didn’t hesitate when asked if he’d soon be seen in such first-in-the-nation states as Iowa and New Hampshire.

“Yeah, you will [see me],” he said.

So could Johnson be the burgeoning tea party movement’s preferred candidate in the next presidential election, the tribune of the disaffected and disgruntled?

He’s certainly on the same page when it comes to the fiscal issues that have galvanized activists. In the interview — and in a high-production-value video on his group’s snazzy website — he touts his small-government record in Santa Fe, where he vetoed 750 bills, a total that at the time was more than that of the other 49 governors in the country combined.

And he embraces the outsider spirit of the tea party movement, noting that he was a construction business owner before winning election as part of the much-heralded Republican class of 1994 governors.

“I had a ‘Mr. Smith Goes to Washington’ experience as governor,” he said.

But Johnson is no political rube — as he demonstrates by offering the same sound-bite-friendly quotes in an interview that he voices in the video, exhibiting the well-honed skills of a new-media-age pol.

And while he’s an admirer of tea party energy — and has actually attended a few rallies himself in New Mexico — he’s cautious about their politics.

He said he’s uncertain about what exactly they stand for out of fear that he “may not get that right.” But without prompting, the former governor brings up the hot-button issue of immigration — an issue on which he takes a far less restrictive view than many on the populist right.

Word about Johnson is already circulating among grass-roots activists. A handful of draft-style websites have popped up to urge him to consider a presidential bid. And some tea party leaders say they like what they see.

Citing the five limited-government principles that adorn the side of the Tea Party Express buses, Joe Wierzbicki, a national coordinator for the Tea Party Express group, noted that Johnson is in agreement with the group on those issues and had a record to back it up.

“He championed personal liberty and a smaller, less intrusive government, and we applaud both his record and his efforts to continue his fight at the national level,” said Wierzbicki, adding that Johnson has “generated a lot of excitement in the Ron Paul constitutionalist and libertarian sect, which is furious about the policies of both Bush and Obama and the Congress of the last three sessions.”

Johnson actually endorsed Paul for president last year, and he shares some of the Texas congressman’s libertarian alarmist views — but without the penchant for gold standard wonkiness.

David Boaz, executive vice president of the Cato Institute, said Johnson could find some overlap in support between the younger Paul adherents and a broader libertarian-leaning demographic.

Plus, Boaz said, the New Mexican might also be the only Republican giving voice in 2012 to a noninterventionist national security message.

“By the time of the first Republican primary, there will be two more years of these wars, and I would guess support for them will drop,” said the Cato thinker. “And every month that passes, they become Obama’s wars, not Bush’s.”

Johnson, for his part, noted his early opposition to the Iraq war and said the mission in Afghanistan had crept away from finding Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda.

“I don’t believe that our national security interests are being threatened in either location,” he said.

What seems clear is that for now Johnson has no plan to leave the GOP. He resisted a draft effort from the Libertarian Party leading up to the 2000 presidential race and now, while noting his disillusionment with the party’s fiscal record during the Bush years, says: “I am still a Republican.”

Wes Benedict, executive director of the Libertarian National Committee, said he suspects Johnson is trying to nudge the GOP closer to libertarianism.

“It would not bother me one bit if both the Republican and Democratic parties move towards the Libertarian Party positions,” Benedict quipped. “If Johnson fails to convince Republican candidates to support ending the U.S. occupation of Iraq and to legalize marijuana, his results will probably benefit Libertarian Party candidates.”

Drug decriminalization is no small matter in a prospective Johnson bid. An admitted former marijuana user whose construction firm was known as Big J, Johnson is a vigorous advocate for decriminalizing drugs — an issue that no serious presidential candidate has ever embraced.

“Why continue to arrest 1.8 million people each year on drug-related crimes?” he asked, unprompted.

While legalization could help raise national money among others who feel as passionate about the issue, New Mexico political analyst Joe Monahan notes that it could also turn off some voters who might be otherwise sympathetic to Johnson’s small-government agenda.

“That’s what he’s identified with here,” said Monahan, when asked about Johnson’s legacy as governor. “Is his campaign going to be about legalizing drugs or a broader agenda?”
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Gary Johnson, seen here in 1998, is starting to sound like a mad-as-hell populist with an eye cast on 2012. Photo: AP
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Post by racehorse » 12-17-2009 03:25 PM

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard ... tion.html#

THE SCORECARD

Josh Kraushaar

December 17, 2009

08:33 AM

Bracing for a wave election

Here’s a statistic from the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll ( http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/ ... 121609.pdf ) that should send shivers down the spines of Congressional incumbents: only 38 percent of voters said they feel their representative should be re-elected, while nearly half (49 percent) believe it’s time to give a new person a chance.

That’s the lowest net re-elect number for Congress since November 2005 – and even worse than the polls taken right before the landslide election of 2006 that swept Democrats in control of Congress (39 re-elect/45 new person), and worse than those taken before the Republican revolution of 1994 (39/49).

Usually, in more stable times, voters tend to support their own member of Congress even when they dislike the institution of Congress. But this NBC/WSJ survey is showing wide and deep angst even at voters’ own, familiar representatives – and that sets up the growing possibility that House Republicans could make very significant gains in 2010.
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Post by racehorse » 12-18-2009 10:00 AM

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/ ... oomey.html

December 18, 2009

Specter Deadlocked with Toomey

A new Quinnipiac poll ( http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?Rel ... &strTime=0 ) in Pennsylvania finds Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and challenger Pat Toomey (R) are tied, 44% to 44%, in next year's U.S. Senate race.

Said pollster Peter Brown: "Specter has the state's Democratic registration advantage on his side, while Toomey can take heart in the numbers that show problems for Specter in measures in addition to the horse race. For example, voters say 50% to 38% he does not deserve reelection."

In the Democratic primary, Specter holds a commanding 53% to 30% lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D).
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Post by racehorse » 12-18-2009 10:38 AM

http://www.kentucky.com/latest_news/v-p ... 64489.html

Posted on Fri, Dec. 18, 2009

Rand Paul spokesman resigns over 'disturbing images' online

By Jack Brammer

FRANKFORT — The Republican U.S. Senate campaign of Rand Paul confirmed Thursday night that its spokesman, Christopher Hightower, resigned after political blogs listed controversial materials related to him.

Paul's chief rival, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, immediately said Hightower's views and behavior "have no place in this campaign" and that "Paul's judgment is seriously in question at this point."

Grayson said Paul should make it clear where exactly he agrees and disagrees with Chris Hightower.

The blog, Barefoot and Progressive, reported that Hightower had posted on his MySpace page for two years a statement from someone else declaring "Happy N***** Day" near Martin Luther King Day and a photo of a lynching.

The Hill, a congressional newspaper that publishes daily when Congress is in session, picked up the blog's report.

David Adams, campaign manager for Paul, said Hightower resigned because of Internet postings.

In a statement, Adams said, "Today, the Rand Paul campaign became aware of some disturbing images on a social network site attributed to a campaign staffer.

"The images were not placed there by this employee but by someone posting on the site. These images in no way represent Dr. Paul or his campaign nor do they represent the beliefs of this staff member. These images are reprehensible and have no place in civil discourse."

Paul, in a statement, said, "I have never heard a single utterance of racism from this staffer nor do I believe him to have any racist tendencies. However, it is impossible to present the ideas and reforms we need in this country with this controversy present. Therefore I have accepted his resignation."

Recently, Hightower got into a controversy by making light of a video that portrayed Grayson as Hitler.

The Courier-Journal reported Thursday that Hightower resigned a few hours after he told one of its reporters that he had never been a member of myspace.com and that the words on the site were not his.
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Post by racehorse » 12-18-2009 12:57 PM

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/ ... ml#032763a

December 18, 2009

An Unlikely Friendship

On C-SPAN this morning, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) described his close friendship with President Obama despite their extreme ideological differences.

Said Coburn: "I try to write him about every week or two. Write him a note, encourage him. No one has a tougher job than he does... We came into the Senate together, and I just have a lot of admiration for him. I'm 180 degrees from him on policy on most issues. But I think he's a wonderful man."

Coburn notes his relationship with Obama is "by far" much closer than he has with former President George W. Bush.

Here's the video clip from C-SPAN:

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Post by racehorse » 12-18-2009 01:11 PM

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing- ... nt=1&page=

Bill Clinton pitches e-mail for Sen. Lincoln's reelection effort in Arkansas

By Michael O'Brien - 12/17/09 10:59 AM ET

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) got a boost in her reelection effort on Thursday morning by way of a fundraising e-mail from former President Bill Clinton.

Clinton, the one-time governor of Arkansas, sent an e-mail to Lincoln supporters asking for funds and seeking to beat back attacks from the senator's left and right.

"I am going to tell you what I told Sen. Lincoln this week: She's going to win this thing," Clinton wrote. "Make no mistake, this will be a tough fight. But I know Sen. Lincoln well and I know she is up to it. That's why I'm standing with her, and I'm asking you to do the same."

Lincoln is among a handful of centrist Democrats in the Senate whose votes have been needed for the party to stick together and muster 60 votes to break filibusters. The two-term senator has had to straddle that obligation and a reelection battle in 2010 in which she's expected to face a brisk Republican challenge and potentially a primary challenge from her left as well.

Clinton acknowledged the stress on Lincoln in his e-mail.

"Through all the attacks from the left and the right, Blanche has maintained a steady course for common sense reforms that matter most to a rural state like Arkansas where most people are self-employed or employees of small businesses," he wrote. "I admire her grit and I want to help her. I hope you do too."
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