http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/12/1 ... tab/print/
DECEMBER 14, 2009, 1:03 PM ET
Liberals Step Up Attack on Lieberman(s)
By Susan Davis
The pervading liberal anger towards Sen. Joe Lieberman is no longer limited to the Connecticut senator.
Liberal blogger Jane Hamsher at Firedoglake on Friday called on Susan G. Komen for the Cure to drop Lieberman’s wife, Hadassah, as a “global ambassador” because of her ties to the health care industry. The breast cancer advocacy organization declined. “We value her work as global ambassador and have every intention of keeping her in this capacity,” spokeswoman Pamela Stevens told The Plum Line.
So today, Firedoglake is launching a petition asking supporters to sign a letter urging Mrs. Lieberman’s firing. Hamsher is also trying to gain attention for the effort by calling on the various celebrities aligned with Komen, including Ellen DeGeneres and Christie Brinkley, to call for her ousting.
Liberals are furious of late over the Connecticut senator’s position that he will support a filibuster of any health care bill that includes a public option or the Senate Democratic leaders’ proposal to allow uninsured people as young as 55 to buy Medicare coverage. With Democrats controlling 60 votes in the chamber, his vote could be critical. But most liberals fell out of love with Joe Lieberman a long time ago, or at least when he backed Republican Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race.
A recent poll commissioned by two liberal groups, Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America, showed more than 80% of Democrats want Lieberman stripped of his Homeland Security Committee chairmanship if he sides with Republicans on health care. Just 10% of Democrats said there should be no punishment.
PCCC has also recently ran an ad in Connecticut and on national cable for Lieberman being “all about Joe.”
Lieberman—who has not said what his plans are when his seat is up for re-election in 2012—has been unapologetic in his stance on the health care. “We’ve got to stop adding to the bill. We’ve got to start subtracting some controversial things. I think the only way to get this done before Christmas is to bring in some Republicans who are open-minded on this, like Olympia Snowe,” he said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” He added: “You’ve got to take out the Medicare buy-in. You’ve got to forget about the public option.”
Elections 2009-2012
Moderator: Super Moderators
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix ... rss=thefix
The Fix
Political News & Analysis by Chris Cilliza
The 10 best Senate races of the decade
As the end of the first decade of the 21st century(!) draws ever closer, the Fix has turned contemplative. That contemplation has centered -- as it almost always does -- on politics, specifically on the best races from that decade that was.
And, because we are obsessed with rankings -- the Georgetown Hoyas are number 13 11 (and rising) in the ESPN/USA Today poll thanks for asking -- we came up with our list of the ten best Senate races of the past ten years over the weekend.
Agree with our picks? Disagree? You can offer your own thoughts in the comments section below but also make sure to tune in tomorrow at 11 am for a special "Live Fix" chat where we will field questions for an hour on the method to our ranking madness.
Away we go!
1. South Dakota 2004: There's little debate that this race between then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) and former Rep. John Thune (R) was the marquee contest of the past ten years. The stakes were massive: Daschle was seeking to avoid the ignominious distinction of becoming the first Senate leader to lose a re-election race since 1952 while Thune, widely touted as a potential national star, was trying to bounce back from a narrow loss to Sen. Tim Johnson (D) two years earlier. Daschle went on television in July of 2003(!) and ultimately spent nearly $20 million on the race. Thune, buoyed by national conservative groups aiming to de-throne Daschle, eventually collected almost $15 million in a campaign that sought to paint the Democrat as out of step with the state. A single ad -- in which Daschle is caught on camera saying "I'm a DC resident" among other impolitic pronouncements -- was credited with turning the tide toward Thune, who won by roughly 4,500 votes. That victory propelled Thune into the national spotlight where he sits today -- widely seen as a potential 2012 (or 2016) presidential candidate.
2. Missouri 2000: From the start, this race in the Show Me State was one for the ages. On one side was Sen. John Ashcroft, the controversial, conservative firebrand. On the other was Gov. Mel Carnahan, the most popular and successful Democratic politician in the state. The two men didn't like one another and it showed; they spent the better part of two years bashing one another on television and in person. The race changed drastically on Oct. 16, 2000 when, just weeks before election day, Carnahan as well as his oldest son and a campaign adviser were killed in a plane crash. Carnahan's death came too late for his name to be removed from the ballot but his wife, Jean, who had never previously held elective office, made clear that if her husband won the race posthumously she would accept a gubernatorial appointment to serve in his stead. He did, and she did. Jean Carnahan went on to lose a bid to serve out the remainder of her late husband's six year term to Jim Talent (R) in 2002.
3. Minnesota 2002: In an eerie replay of the contest in Missouri two years earlier, Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone , his wife and his daughter were killed in a plane crash on Oct. 25, 2002 -- just days before voters were set to go to the polls to choose between the liberal icon and former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (R). Before Wellstone's death, the race was extremely close although the incumbent seemed to have moved into a slight lead. (Republicans involved in the contest vehemently dispute that Wellstone was on the way to victory). In the immediate aftermath of the tragedy, former Minnesota Senator and Vice President Water Mondale was chosen to replace Wellstone on the ballot, a move widely seen as locking up the seat for Democrats. But, the memorial service to honor Wellstone, which was televised across the state, turned into something of a political rally, turning off swing voters and putting the momentum behind Coleman. On election day, Coleman took 49.5 percent to 47.3 percent for Mondale.
4. Minnesota 2008: Six years after Coleman's miraculous victory, he faced off against entertainer Al Franken (D) in a race that drew massive amounts of national attention. Franken spent much of the campaign downplaying his larger-than-life comedic personality and deflecting controversial past writings. Coleman, meanwhile, did everything he could to disassociate himself from the unpopular President George W. Bush. Everyone knew the race was going to be close -- polls showed it in a dead heat right up until election day -- but no one knew how close. Coleman appeared to have narrowly won but a statewide recount showed Franken with a 225-vote lead. Months upon months -- eight, to be exact -- of legal wrangling ensued with Coleman insisting that election officials has adopted an inconsistent standard for the inclusion (or disqualification) of ballots. Finally, after the Minnesota Supreme Court rejected his challenge on June 30, 2009(!), Coleman conceded the race. Franken's final margin: 312 votes out of nearly 1.5 million cast.
5. New Jersey 2002: Sen. Robert "Torch" Torricelli's (D) ethical problems made him a major target for Senate Republicans in 2002. Businessman Doug Forrester, whose strongest asset was his personal wealth and his willingness to spend it, was the Republican nominee. Torricelli was "severely admonished" by the Senate Ethics Committee for his relationship with a donor in the summer of 2002 and as fall arrived polls showed that the incumbent had no path to victory. Torch, never a good loser, backed out of the race in September 2002 and, in doing so, delivered one of the best/worst resignation speeches in modern political history. (The speech sadly is not captured on video but you can see our full analysis of it here.) Republicans cried foul but Democrats, privately thrilled at Torch's resignation, quickly moved to replace him on the ballot with former Sen. Frank Lautenberg. (In an irony not lost on political junkies, Torricelli and Lautenberg openly despised one another when they served together.) Forrester, clearly flummoxed by the Democratic switcheroo, never recovered, and Lautenberg went on to win the race 54 percent to 44 percent.
6. Illinois 2004: When the race to replace Illinois Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R) began, Barack Obama was a state senator with only a primary loss to Rep. Bobby Rush to his name. When it ended, he was the newest star of the Democratic party -- a position he ultimately leveraged into a presidential bid in 2008. What happened in between was a fascinating race where the Democratic primary frontrunner -- wealthy businessman Blair Hull -- imploded after his divorce proceedings were made public, and the Republican nominee -- wealthy businessman Jack Ryan -- was forced to step aside by his own party after details of his frequenting of sex clubs hit the papers. Obama was the beneficiary in both cases. Hull's collapse in the primary fueled an Obama surge that delivered him a whopping 53 percent in a five-way race. Ryan's departure left Republicans without a serious candidate and the party's eventual pick -- former Maryland Senate candidate Alan Keyes -- was roundly considered a joke. The ease of the general election race against Keyes, which Obama won with 70 percent of the vote, allowed the up-and-coming Senator to deliver the keynote speech of the 2004 Democratic National Convention. The rest, as they say, is history.
7. New York 2000: It's easy to forget now but at the start of the decade, the idea of former First Lady Hillary Clinton in elected office seemed a bit of a pipe dream. When New York Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) floated Clinton's name as a possible replacement for retiring Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D), it was greeted with more than a little skepticism. But, Clinton proved her doubters wrong with an effective "listening" tour focused on Upstate New York that seemed to dissipate (or at least weaken) the charge that she was a carpetbagger. The race looked to be shaping up as one of the greatest ever when former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani indicated he would run but in the spring of 2000, Hizzoner dropped two bombshells: he had prostate cancer and he was separating from his wife. He dropped from the race in May and was quickly replaced on the ballot by ambitious Long Island Rep. Rick Lazio. Republicans had high hopes for Lazio but a single decision -- to aggressively approach Clinton at a debate, demanding that she sign a clean campaign pledge -- cost him the race. Together, the two candidates spent more than $81 million but Clinton cruised to a 55 percent to 43 percent victory, a win that set the stage for her unsuccessful run for president eight years later.
8. Virginia 2006: This race between Sen. George Allen (R) and former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D) introduced the political world to the power of the Internet in two distinct ways. First, it revealed the web's power as an organizational tool as a small group of committed activists organized a "Draft Webb" site that drew considerable interest and played at least some role in his eventual candidacy. Second, it showed that web video -- via You Tube -- was here to stay in the context of political campaigns. Allen, who was widely discussed as a 2008 presidential candidate at the time, was cruising to a second term in August 2006 when at a rally, he referred to a Webb staffer, who was of Indian descent, as a "macaca". The incident became a HUGE national story and, even though Allen quickly apologized, the damage was done. Webb, who had been dead in the water before "macaca", surged and ultimately edged Allen by 9,000 votes out of more than 1.3 million cast. Allen's defeat turned into a cautionary tale for politicians everywhere now aware that politics had entered the You Tube age, making every public (and private) pronouncement a potential campaign issue.
9. Connecticut 2006: Just six years removed from serving as the Democratic vice presidential nominee and just two years after his own unsuccessful presidential candidacy, Sen. Joe Lieberman found himself in a fight for his political life. Lieberman's strong and continued support for the war in Iraq had put him out of step with the base of his party in the Nutmeg State, an alienation crystallized when wealthy businessman Ned Lamont decided to enter the primary and pledged to spend millions to oust Lieberman. Lieberman underestimated the level of anger directed at him by Democratic primary voters and, by the time he realized it, Lamont had all the momentum. After losing the primary by four points, most people assumed Lieberman's Senate career was over but the incumbent had other plans -- forming a third party and running as an independent. Lamont relished his primary victory for far too long -- he went on an extended vacation after winning in August 2006 -- and Lieberman took advantage, coalescing independents, Republicans (there was no serious GOP nominee) and moderate Democrats. Lieberman managed to win a fourth term over Lamont 50 percent to 40 percent that November although his uneasy relationship with the Democratic party has remained as a running narrative in the intervening three-plus years.
10. Georgia 2002: Going into the 2002 election cycle, Sen. Max Cleland (D) was not seen as particularly vulnerable. His service and sacrifice -- he lost three limbs in grenade accident in Vietnam -- to the country gave him the air of electoral impregnability. And, the Republican nominee -- Rep. Saxby Chambliss -- was regarded as a nice but ultimately not-ready-for-primetime candidate. The race lay dormant until the fall when Chambliss began running ads featuring Osama bin-Laden, Saddam Hussein and Cleland in an attempt to call into question the Democratic Senator's opposition to the creation of a new Department of Homeland Security. Democrats initially scoffed at the attacks, insisting that voters would never question Cleland's service to the country. But, in a country just one year removed from the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Chambliss' hit proved devastatingly effective (and provided a future blueprint for Republican campaigns run in the post-9/11 world). One election day, Chambliss won 53 percent to 46 percent. The race echoed throughout the next several years with Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee and a Vietnam veteran in his own right, victimized by similar ads sponsored by a group known as the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth that called into question his service.
The Fix
Political News & Analysis by Chris Cilliza
The 10 best Senate races of the decade
As the end of the first decade of the 21st century(!) draws ever closer, the Fix has turned contemplative. That contemplation has centered -- as it almost always does -- on politics, specifically on the best races from that decade that was.
And, because we are obsessed with rankings -- the Georgetown Hoyas are number 13 11 (and rising) in the ESPN/USA Today poll thanks for asking -- we came up with our list of the ten best Senate races of the past ten years over the weekend.
Agree with our picks? Disagree? You can offer your own thoughts in the comments section below but also make sure to tune in tomorrow at 11 am for a special "Live Fix" chat where we will field questions for an hour on the method to our ranking madness.
Away we go!
1. South Dakota 2004: There's little debate that this race between then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) and former Rep. John Thune (R) was the marquee contest of the past ten years. The stakes were massive: Daschle was seeking to avoid the ignominious distinction of becoming the first Senate leader to lose a re-election race since 1952 while Thune, widely touted as a potential national star, was trying to bounce back from a narrow loss to Sen. Tim Johnson (D) two years earlier. Daschle went on television in July of 2003(!) and ultimately spent nearly $20 million on the race. Thune, buoyed by national conservative groups aiming to de-throne Daschle, eventually collected almost $15 million in a campaign that sought to paint the Democrat as out of step with the state. A single ad -- in which Daschle is caught on camera saying "I'm a DC resident" among other impolitic pronouncements -- was credited with turning the tide toward Thune, who won by roughly 4,500 votes. That victory propelled Thune into the national spotlight where he sits today -- widely seen as a potential 2012 (or 2016) presidential candidate.
2. Missouri 2000: From the start, this race in the Show Me State was one for the ages. On one side was Sen. John Ashcroft, the controversial, conservative firebrand. On the other was Gov. Mel Carnahan, the most popular and successful Democratic politician in the state. The two men didn't like one another and it showed; they spent the better part of two years bashing one another on television and in person. The race changed drastically on Oct. 16, 2000 when, just weeks before election day, Carnahan as well as his oldest son and a campaign adviser were killed in a plane crash. Carnahan's death came too late for his name to be removed from the ballot but his wife, Jean, who had never previously held elective office, made clear that if her husband won the race posthumously she would accept a gubernatorial appointment to serve in his stead. He did, and she did. Jean Carnahan went on to lose a bid to serve out the remainder of her late husband's six year term to Jim Talent (R) in 2002.
3. Minnesota 2002: In an eerie replay of the contest in Missouri two years earlier, Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone , his wife and his daughter were killed in a plane crash on Oct. 25, 2002 -- just days before voters were set to go to the polls to choose between the liberal icon and former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (R). Before Wellstone's death, the race was extremely close although the incumbent seemed to have moved into a slight lead. (Republicans involved in the contest vehemently dispute that Wellstone was on the way to victory). In the immediate aftermath of the tragedy, former Minnesota Senator and Vice President Water Mondale was chosen to replace Wellstone on the ballot, a move widely seen as locking up the seat for Democrats. But, the memorial service to honor Wellstone, which was televised across the state, turned into something of a political rally, turning off swing voters and putting the momentum behind Coleman. On election day, Coleman took 49.5 percent to 47.3 percent for Mondale.
4. Minnesota 2008: Six years after Coleman's miraculous victory, he faced off against entertainer Al Franken (D) in a race that drew massive amounts of national attention. Franken spent much of the campaign downplaying his larger-than-life comedic personality and deflecting controversial past writings. Coleman, meanwhile, did everything he could to disassociate himself from the unpopular President George W. Bush. Everyone knew the race was going to be close -- polls showed it in a dead heat right up until election day -- but no one knew how close. Coleman appeared to have narrowly won but a statewide recount showed Franken with a 225-vote lead. Months upon months -- eight, to be exact -- of legal wrangling ensued with Coleman insisting that election officials has adopted an inconsistent standard for the inclusion (or disqualification) of ballots. Finally, after the Minnesota Supreme Court rejected his challenge on June 30, 2009(!), Coleman conceded the race. Franken's final margin: 312 votes out of nearly 1.5 million cast.
5. New Jersey 2002: Sen. Robert "Torch" Torricelli's (D) ethical problems made him a major target for Senate Republicans in 2002. Businessman Doug Forrester, whose strongest asset was his personal wealth and his willingness to spend it, was the Republican nominee. Torricelli was "severely admonished" by the Senate Ethics Committee for his relationship with a donor in the summer of 2002 and as fall arrived polls showed that the incumbent had no path to victory. Torch, never a good loser, backed out of the race in September 2002 and, in doing so, delivered one of the best/worst resignation speeches in modern political history. (The speech sadly is not captured on video but you can see our full analysis of it here.) Republicans cried foul but Democrats, privately thrilled at Torch's resignation, quickly moved to replace him on the ballot with former Sen. Frank Lautenberg. (In an irony not lost on political junkies, Torricelli and Lautenberg openly despised one another when they served together.) Forrester, clearly flummoxed by the Democratic switcheroo, never recovered, and Lautenberg went on to win the race 54 percent to 44 percent.
6. Illinois 2004: When the race to replace Illinois Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R) began, Barack Obama was a state senator with only a primary loss to Rep. Bobby Rush to his name. When it ended, he was the newest star of the Democratic party -- a position he ultimately leveraged into a presidential bid in 2008. What happened in between was a fascinating race where the Democratic primary frontrunner -- wealthy businessman Blair Hull -- imploded after his divorce proceedings were made public, and the Republican nominee -- wealthy businessman Jack Ryan -- was forced to step aside by his own party after details of his frequenting of sex clubs hit the papers. Obama was the beneficiary in both cases. Hull's collapse in the primary fueled an Obama surge that delivered him a whopping 53 percent in a five-way race. Ryan's departure left Republicans without a serious candidate and the party's eventual pick -- former Maryland Senate candidate Alan Keyes -- was roundly considered a joke. The ease of the general election race against Keyes, which Obama won with 70 percent of the vote, allowed the up-and-coming Senator to deliver the keynote speech of the 2004 Democratic National Convention. The rest, as they say, is history.
7. New York 2000: It's easy to forget now but at the start of the decade, the idea of former First Lady Hillary Clinton in elected office seemed a bit of a pipe dream. When New York Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) floated Clinton's name as a possible replacement for retiring Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D), it was greeted with more than a little skepticism. But, Clinton proved her doubters wrong with an effective "listening" tour focused on Upstate New York that seemed to dissipate (or at least weaken) the charge that she was a carpetbagger. The race looked to be shaping up as one of the greatest ever when former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani indicated he would run but in the spring of 2000, Hizzoner dropped two bombshells: he had prostate cancer and he was separating from his wife. He dropped from the race in May and was quickly replaced on the ballot by ambitious Long Island Rep. Rick Lazio. Republicans had high hopes for Lazio but a single decision -- to aggressively approach Clinton at a debate, demanding that she sign a clean campaign pledge -- cost him the race. Together, the two candidates spent more than $81 million but Clinton cruised to a 55 percent to 43 percent victory, a win that set the stage for her unsuccessful run for president eight years later.
8. Virginia 2006: This race between Sen. George Allen (R) and former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D) introduced the political world to the power of the Internet in two distinct ways. First, it revealed the web's power as an organizational tool as a small group of committed activists organized a "Draft Webb" site that drew considerable interest and played at least some role in his eventual candidacy. Second, it showed that web video -- via You Tube -- was here to stay in the context of political campaigns. Allen, who was widely discussed as a 2008 presidential candidate at the time, was cruising to a second term in August 2006 when at a rally, he referred to a Webb staffer, who was of Indian descent, as a "macaca". The incident became a HUGE national story and, even though Allen quickly apologized, the damage was done. Webb, who had been dead in the water before "macaca", surged and ultimately edged Allen by 9,000 votes out of more than 1.3 million cast. Allen's defeat turned into a cautionary tale for politicians everywhere now aware that politics had entered the You Tube age, making every public (and private) pronouncement a potential campaign issue.
9. Connecticut 2006: Just six years removed from serving as the Democratic vice presidential nominee and just two years after his own unsuccessful presidential candidacy, Sen. Joe Lieberman found himself in a fight for his political life. Lieberman's strong and continued support for the war in Iraq had put him out of step with the base of his party in the Nutmeg State, an alienation crystallized when wealthy businessman Ned Lamont decided to enter the primary and pledged to spend millions to oust Lieberman. Lieberman underestimated the level of anger directed at him by Democratic primary voters and, by the time he realized it, Lamont had all the momentum. After losing the primary by four points, most people assumed Lieberman's Senate career was over but the incumbent had other plans -- forming a third party and running as an independent. Lamont relished his primary victory for far too long -- he went on an extended vacation after winning in August 2006 -- and Lieberman took advantage, coalescing independents, Republicans (there was no serious GOP nominee) and moderate Democrats. Lieberman managed to win a fourth term over Lamont 50 percent to 40 percent that November although his uneasy relationship with the Democratic party has remained as a running narrative in the intervening three-plus years.
10. Georgia 2002: Going into the 2002 election cycle, Sen. Max Cleland (D) was not seen as particularly vulnerable. His service and sacrifice -- he lost three limbs in grenade accident in Vietnam -- to the country gave him the air of electoral impregnability. And, the Republican nominee -- Rep. Saxby Chambliss -- was regarded as a nice but ultimately not-ready-for-primetime candidate. The race lay dormant until the fall when Chambliss began running ads featuring Osama bin-Laden, Saddam Hussein and Cleland in an attempt to call into question the Democratic Senator's opposition to the creation of a new Department of Homeland Security. Democrats initially scoffed at the attacks, insisting that voters would never question Cleland's service to the country. But, in a country just one year removed from the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Chambliss' hit proved devastatingly effective (and provided a future blueprint for Republican campaigns run in the post-9/11 world). One election day, Chambliss won 53 percent to 46 percent. The race echoed throughout the next several years with Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee and a Vietnam veteran in his own right, victimized by similar ads sponsored by a group known as the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth that called into question his service.
racehorse
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/ ... imary.html
December 15, 2009
Thompson Could Beat Gillibrand in Primary
A new Quinnipiac poll ( http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1404 ) in New York finds that if New York City Comptroller William Thompson (D) challenged Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in a primary, he would beat her 41% to 28%.
Said pollster Maurice Carroll: "If New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson can raise some money and get in the race, he has a double-digit lead over rookie U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. But Giuliani, who is pondering a Senate race, tops both of them."
December 15, 2009
Thompson Could Beat Gillibrand in Primary
A new Quinnipiac poll ( http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1404 ) in New York finds that if New York City Comptroller William Thompson (D) challenged Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in a primary, he would beat her 41% to 28%.
Said pollster Maurice Carroll: "If New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson can raise some money and get in the race, he has a double-digit lead over rookie U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. But Giuliani, who is pondering a Senate race, tops both of them."
racehorse
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/ ... tions.html
December 15, 2009
Edwards Visit to Campaign Donor Raises Questions
With John Edwards under investigation by a federal grand jury, "two former prosecutors say a trip he made to the home of a wealthy supporter -- and possible witness -- could raise legal questions," according to the Charlotte Observer.
On Friday, WRAL-TV (http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/video/6600670/ )showed Edwards "walking off a plane belonging to Rachel 'Bunny' Mellon, a wealthy heiress who supported the former Democrat's presidential candidate's campaign. Flight records showed the plane flew... to the private airstrip at Mellon's northern Virginia home."
A grand jury is investigating whether Edwards used campaign money to cover up an affair with mistress Rielle Hunter. A former aide claims Mellon paid some of Hunter's bills and the Edwards trip raises questions of possible witness tampering.
Meanwhile, the Charlotte Business Journal (http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/charlo ... aily6.html ) looks into a National Enquirer report that Edwards purchased a home for his former mistress in North Carolina.
December 15, 2009
Edwards Visit to Campaign Donor Raises Questions
With John Edwards under investigation by a federal grand jury, "two former prosecutors say a trip he made to the home of a wealthy supporter -- and possible witness -- could raise legal questions," according to the Charlotte Observer.
On Friday, WRAL-TV (http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/video/6600670/ )showed Edwards "walking off a plane belonging to Rachel 'Bunny' Mellon, a wealthy heiress who supported the former Democrat's presidential candidate's campaign. Flight records showed the plane flew... to the private airstrip at Mellon's northern Virginia home."
A grand jury is investigating whether Edwards used campaign money to cover up an affair with mistress Rielle Hunter. A former aide claims Mellon paid some of Hunter's bills and the Edwards trip raises questions of possible witness tampering.
Meanwhile, the Charlotte Business Journal (http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/charlo ... aily6.html ) looks into a National Enquirer report that Edwards purchased a home for his former mistress in North Carolina.
racehorse
http://www.star-telegram.com/804/story/1830233.html
Friedman drops out of governor's race, will run for agriculture commissioner
Monday, Dec. 14, 2009
By DAVE MONTGOMERY
AUSTIN — Austin author-entertainer Kinky Friedman dropped out of the Democratic governor’s race Monday to run for agriculture commissioner and said he tried to persuade Houston businessman Farouk Shami to also switch campaigns to clear the field for outgoing Houston Mayor Bill White.
With Friedman out of the picture, the Democratic governor’s race tightens into basically a two-way contest, with White heavily favored over Shami, a wealthy hair-care magnate who plans to spend at least $10 million on the campaign.
A third remaining candidate, Fort Worth educator Felix Alvarado, said Monday that he plans to stay in the race.
Friedman’s political shift also opens up a potentially contentious primary battle between him and Whitehouse rancher Hank Gilbert in the down-ballot race for agriculture commissioner. Gilbert, another drop-out gubernatorial candidate, called Friedman’s new candidacy "another example of self-promotion" by the widely-known entertainer.
Friedman, who met with both White and Shami over the weekend, said he unsuccessfully urged Shami to withdraw from the governor’s race and run for another office, such as lieutenant governor, "so they won’t be against each other."
Friedman is a friend of Shami’s and received the businessman’s support during his independent bid for governor in 2006.
But he said he was "very impressed" with White during their first face-to-face meeting and offered effusive praise, even though he said he wasn’t making an official endorsement.
"I came away very charmed," Friedman said, adding that the three-term mayor has the potential to be "a great leader."
"The two of us are going to be a really good team," he added. "As you know, he may not be Mr. Charismo, but, boy, he’s real, and that would be a nice change . . . He’s on a par with everything I wanted to do as governor."
'Peace agreement’
Friedman, attempting to broker a "peace agreement" between the gubernatorial candidates, said he suggested that Shami shift to another race to possibly pick up supporters who would otherwise back White in the governor’s race but said the businessman turned down the proposal.
"He’s a dear friend and a good man, and anyone who dismisses him lightly is making a big mistake," Friedman said of Shami.
Shami spokeswoman Jessica Gutierrez said Shami, who has begun running television ads, has no intention of withdrawing. "Farouk is not a flip-flop man," she said. "He said he’s going to run for governor and he’s running for governor."
She also said that Shami will continue to endorse Gilbert in the agriculture race, a commitment he made after Gilbert endorsed him in the gubernatorial primary. But she said Shami and Friedman remain friends.
No deal with White
Although Friedman’s praise of White resonated like an endorsement, both he and the White campaign said the two candidates did not discuss any endorsement.
Friedman, who at one point was thought to be considering the land commissioner’s race, dismissed speculation that White may have wanted Friedman to run for agriculture commissioner in retaliation for Gilbert’s endorsement of Shami.
"Bill didn’t push me in any direction," said Friedman.
Friedman, who has widespread name identification, said he believed he was a front-runner but said that raising money against White and Shami would have been a problem. Friedman, who has a 500-acre ranch, said he has a lot to offer as agriculture commissioner and will work to increase the number of farmer co-ops, expand agriculture markets and improve production of biofuels and bio-energy.
He said he has the support of musician Willie Nelson, an advocate of farmers’ causes, and former Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower.
But Gilbert quickly criticized his new rival.
"Here we have a candidate who is running for office — any office — solely because he wants to promote his books and personal appearances," said Gilbert, who was the Democratic nominee for agriculture commissioner in 2006. "People don’t need someone more concerned about self-promotion than selfless public service."
--
DAVE MONTGOMERY IS CHIEF OF THE STAR-TELEGRAM’S AUSTIN BUREAU
--
Kinky Friedman talks with a fan during a book signing in Bullard, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2009. Friedman dropped out of the 2010 Democratic race for Texas governor Monday and says he will run instead for agriculture commissioner.
Friedman drops out of governor's race, will run for agriculture commissioner
Monday, Dec. 14, 2009
By DAVE MONTGOMERY
AUSTIN — Austin author-entertainer Kinky Friedman dropped out of the Democratic governor’s race Monday to run for agriculture commissioner and said he tried to persuade Houston businessman Farouk Shami to also switch campaigns to clear the field for outgoing Houston Mayor Bill White.
With Friedman out of the picture, the Democratic governor’s race tightens into basically a two-way contest, with White heavily favored over Shami, a wealthy hair-care magnate who plans to spend at least $10 million on the campaign.
A third remaining candidate, Fort Worth educator Felix Alvarado, said Monday that he plans to stay in the race.
Friedman’s political shift also opens up a potentially contentious primary battle between him and Whitehouse rancher Hank Gilbert in the down-ballot race for agriculture commissioner. Gilbert, another drop-out gubernatorial candidate, called Friedman’s new candidacy "another example of self-promotion" by the widely-known entertainer.
Friedman, who met with both White and Shami over the weekend, said he unsuccessfully urged Shami to withdraw from the governor’s race and run for another office, such as lieutenant governor, "so they won’t be against each other."
Friedman is a friend of Shami’s and received the businessman’s support during his independent bid for governor in 2006.
But he said he was "very impressed" with White during their first face-to-face meeting and offered effusive praise, even though he said he wasn’t making an official endorsement.
"I came away very charmed," Friedman said, adding that the three-term mayor has the potential to be "a great leader."
"The two of us are going to be a really good team," he added. "As you know, he may not be Mr. Charismo, but, boy, he’s real, and that would be a nice change . . . He’s on a par with everything I wanted to do as governor."
'Peace agreement’
Friedman, attempting to broker a "peace agreement" between the gubernatorial candidates, said he suggested that Shami shift to another race to possibly pick up supporters who would otherwise back White in the governor’s race but said the businessman turned down the proposal.
"He’s a dear friend and a good man, and anyone who dismisses him lightly is making a big mistake," Friedman said of Shami.
Shami spokeswoman Jessica Gutierrez said Shami, who has begun running television ads, has no intention of withdrawing. "Farouk is not a flip-flop man," she said. "He said he’s going to run for governor and he’s running for governor."
She also said that Shami will continue to endorse Gilbert in the agriculture race, a commitment he made after Gilbert endorsed him in the gubernatorial primary. But she said Shami and Friedman remain friends.
No deal with White
Although Friedman’s praise of White resonated like an endorsement, both he and the White campaign said the two candidates did not discuss any endorsement.
Friedman, who at one point was thought to be considering the land commissioner’s race, dismissed speculation that White may have wanted Friedman to run for agriculture commissioner in retaliation for Gilbert’s endorsement of Shami.
"Bill didn’t push me in any direction," said Friedman.
Friedman, who has widespread name identification, said he believed he was a front-runner but said that raising money against White and Shami would have been a problem. Friedman, who has a 500-acre ranch, said he has a lot to offer as agriculture commissioner and will work to increase the number of farmer co-ops, expand agriculture markets and improve production of biofuels and bio-energy.
He said he has the support of musician Willie Nelson, an advocate of farmers’ causes, and former Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower.
But Gilbert quickly criticized his new rival.
"Here we have a candidate who is running for office — any office — solely because he wants to promote his books and personal appearances," said Gilbert, who was the Democratic nominee for agriculture commissioner in 2006. "People don’t need someone more concerned about self-promotion than selfless public service."
--
DAVE MONTGOMERY IS CHIEF OF THE STAR-TELEGRAM’S AUSTIN BUREAU
--
Kinky Friedman talks with a fan during a book signing in Bullard, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2009. Friedman dropped out of the 2010 Democratic race for Texas governor Monday and says he will run instead for agriculture commissioner.
racehorse
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/72 ... ault&page=
Hawaii special-election rules give GOP hope
By Sean J. Miller - 12/15/09 06:00 AM ET
Republicans are hopeful the rules governing Hawaii’s special election will give them an opportunity to pick up Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s (D-Hawaii) seat.
While confusion remains over the date of the special election, it will be a “winner-takes-all” format, meaning it’s an open race without a primary and with no runoff — the candidate with a plurality of votes wins.
Democrats have two candidates in the race: former Rep. Ed Case (D) and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa. But Honolulu Councilor Charles Djou is the only candidate on the GOP side.
“This dramatically helps me,” Djou said. “I am and will be the only serious Republican in this race.” He added: “In a special election, all I need is a plurality.”
Djou said he expects to have raised more than $300,000 by the end of the quarter. Both Democrats were trailing Djou in the last quarter, although Hanabusa is expected to have help from EMILY’s List.
“It is beneficial [for Republicans] because we’ve got one candidate who will not only take the Republican support but is very likely to take a lot of the independent vote, given the trends that we’re seeing,” said Joanna Burgos, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
Djou “doesn’t need to compete with any other moderate candidate, where Ed Case and Colleen would have to be fighting with each other,” she pointed out.
“They dislike each other already,” Burgos added.
Case and Hanabusa faced each in the special election for the 2nd House district in 2003. After winning the seat, Case became unpopular with his fellow Democrats when he challenged Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) for the party’s nomination in 2006.
“There is some residual bad feelings toward Ed Case among the die-hard Democrats,” said Richard Borreca, a columnist with The Honolulu Star-Bulletin. “He had really let everyone think that he was going to run for reelection [to the House]. He just sort of woke up one day and said, ‘Gee, I’m running against Akaka because Akaka’s too old.’ That ticked off a lot of people.”
With Case and Hanabusa splitting the Democratic vote, the door could open for Djou.
“Because it’s a winner-take-all, the Republicans have a little bit more oomph in it than they usually would,” said Borreca.
He added that another scenario could see Case take votes away from the Republican Djou. Case was considered a Blue Dog Democrat, Borreca said, “so it could be that Case and Djou split the independent vote and Hanabusa walks in with the Democratic vote.”
That’s the only scenario that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) seems to be publicly considering. “We’re confident that this district will continue to be represented by a Democrat,” said Andrew Stone, a spokesman for the committee.
In the meantime, there’s still confusion about the date of the special election. It would need to be scheduled within 60 days after it’s formally called, according to elections officials, but that can’t happen until Abercrombie officially leaves his seat.
Abercrombie announced last week he will resign his seat to concentrate on his gubernatorial bid, but he didn’t give a resignation date.
The congressman intends to hold on to his seat until at least the end of January in order to complete some “unfinished business,” said Dave Helfert, an Abercrombie spokesman. “He wants to be here for a vote on healthcare.”
Abercrombie had been expected to serve out the remainder of his term, despite his ongoing gubernatorial campaign.
“He fully intended not to resign but to finish out his term,” Helfert said, but noted Abercrombie’s gubernatorial campaign took him away from Washington.
“The biggest single problem is Hawaii is 5,000 miles away. It takes at least 12 hours or more to get there. Running for governor is a full-time deal and being a member of Congress is a full-time deal. He fought himself, but he thought that, ‘If I can’t do both well, I’m not going to do them both,’ ” Helfert said. “It was a tough decision for him to walk out in the middle of his term.”
Hanabusa faces a similar dilemma. The State Legislature reconvenes in January, and observers say the role of state Senate president is far from ceremonial. She may need to step down in order to focus on her special-election campaign.
However, she’ll only need to do that if the vote is set for the spring. One proposal being floated in Hawaii is to put off the special election until September, when the parties would have held their primaries.
But Borreca said that would be a tough sell, even as the state struggles with a ballooning deficit. “We only have two votes [in the House] and we want them both,” he said.
While Republicans are excited about their prospects of winning the special election, a victory won’t guarantee their party will hold the seat.
Abercrombie was first elected to the House via a special election in 1986, but he lost in the general. He went on to serve on the Honolulu City Council before returning to the House in 1990.
Hawaii special-election rules give GOP hope
By Sean J. Miller - 12/15/09 06:00 AM ET
Republicans are hopeful the rules governing Hawaii’s special election will give them an opportunity to pick up Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s (D-Hawaii) seat.
While confusion remains over the date of the special election, it will be a “winner-takes-all” format, meaning it’s an open race without a primary and with no runoff — the candidate with a plurality of votes wins.
Democrats have two candidates in the race: former Rep. Ed Case (D) and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa. But Honolulu Councilor Charles Djou is the only candidate on the GOP side.
“This dramatically helps me,” Djou said. “I am and will be the only serious Republican in this race.” He added: “In a special election, all I need is a plurality.”
Djou said he expects to have raised more than $300,000 by the end of the quarter. Both Democrats were trailing Djou in the last quarter, although Hanabusa is expected to have help from EMILY’s List.
“It is beneficial [for Republicans] because we’ve got one candidate who will not only take the Republican support but is very likely to take a lot of the independent vote, given the trends that we’re seeing,” said Joanna Burgos, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
Djou “doesn’t need to compete with any other moderate candidate, where Ed Case and Colleen would have to be fighting with each other,” she pointed out.
“They dislike each other already,” Burgos added.
Case and Hanabusa faced each in the special election for the 2nd House district in 2003. After winning the seat, Case became unpopular with his fellow Democrats when he challenged Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) for the party’s nomination in 2006.
“There is some residual bad feelings toward Ed Case among the die-hard Democrats,” said Richard Borreca, a columnist with The Honolulu Star-Bulletin. “He had really let everyone think that he was going to run for reelection [to the House]. He just sort of woke up one day and said, ‘Gee, I’m running against Akaka because Akaka’s too old.’ That ticked off a lot of people.”
With Case and Hanabusa splitting the Democratic vote, the door could open for Djou.
“Because it’s a winner-take-all, the Republicans have a little bit more oomph in it than they usually would,” said Borreca.
He added that another scenario could see Case take votes away from the Republican Djou. Case was considered a Blue Dog Democrat, Borreca said, “so it could be that Case and Djou split the independent vote and Hanabusa walks in with the Democratic vote.”
That’s the only scenario that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) seems to be publicly considering. “We’re confident that this district will continue to be represented by a Democrat,” said Andrew Stone, a spokesman for the committee.
In the meantime, there’s still confusion about the date of the special election. It would need to be scheduled within 60 days after it’s formally called, according to elections officials, but that can’t happen until Abercrombie officially leaves his seat.
Abercrombie announced last week he will resign his seat to concentrate on his gubernatorial bid, but he didn’t give a resignation date.
The congressman intends to hold on to his seat until at least the end of January in order to complete some “unfinished business,” said Dave Helfert, an Abercrombie spokesman. “He wants to be here for a vote on healthcare.”
Abercrombie had been expected to serve out the remainder of his term, despite his ongoing gubernatorial campaign.
“He fully intended not to resign but to finish out his term,” Helfert said, but noted Abercrombie’s gubernatorial campaign took him away from Washington.
“The biggest single problem is Hawaii is 5,000 miles away. It takes at least 12 hours or more to get there. Running for governor is a full-time deal and being a member of Congress is a full-time deal. He fought himself, but he thought that, ‘If I can’t do both well, I’m not going to do them both,’ ” Helfert said. “It was a tough decision for him to walk out in the middle of his term.”
Hanabusa faces a similar dilemma. The State Legislature reconvenes in January, and observers say the role of state Senate president is far from ceremonial. She may need to step down in order to focus on her special-election campaign.
However, she’ll only need to do that if the vote is set for the spring. One proposal being floated in Hawaii is to put off the special election until September, when the parties would have held their primaries.
But Borreca said that would be a tough sell, even as the state struggles with a ballooning deficit. “We only have two votes [in the House] and we want them both,” he said.
While Republicans are excited about their prospects of winning the special election, a victory won’t guarantee their party will hold the seat.
Abercrombie was first elected to the House via a special election in 1986, but he lost in the general. He went on to serve on the Honolulu City Council before returning to the House in 1990.
racehorse
http://bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com/
December 14, 2009
Jack Brammer
Paul will officially file for U.S. Senate Dec. 30
FRANKFORT — Bowling Green eye surgeon Rand Paul will officially file to run for the U.S. Senate on Dec. 30, his campaign spokesman, David Adams, said Monday.
The filing will occur at 2 p.m. that day in the Capitol office of state Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who is Paul’s chief Republican rival in the race.
After the filing, Paul, the son of Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, will hold a news conference at the state Republican Party headquarters in Frankfort.
Adams called speculation that Paul may file as an independent “ridiculous.”
“He is a Republican, and will file as a Republican,” Adams said.
Paul is making his first bid for public office. The Senate seat became open earlier this year when Republican incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning said he would be retiring.
The filing deadline to run is 4 p.m. Jan. 26.
December 14, 2009
Jack Brammer
Paul will officially file for U.S. Senate Dec. 30
FRANKFORT — Bowling Green eye surgeon Rand Paul will officially file to run for the U.S. Senate on Dec. 30, his campaign spokesman, David Adams, said Monday.
The filing will occur at 2 p.m. that day in the Capitol office of state Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who is Paul’s chief Republican rival in the race.
After the filing, Paul, the son of Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, will hold a news conference at the state Republican Party headquarters in Frankfort.
Adams called speculation that Paul may file as an independent “ridiculous.”
“He is a Republican, and will file as a Republican,” Adams said.
Paul is making his first bid for public office. The Senate seat became open earlier this year when Republican incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning said he would be retiring.
The filing deadline to run is 4 p.m. Jan. 26.
racehorse
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/55_70/po ... 555-1.html
Democrats Expect More Departures
By Bob Benenson
Roll Call Staff
Dec. 15, 2009, 12 a.m.
Rep. Bart Gordon's decision to retire brought to four the number of House Democrats from a competitive districts opting out of the 2010 cycle, further energizing Republicans and putting Democrats on high alert, with several party strategists conceding that more departures are inevitable.
Republicans held up the late-year retirements as just a hint of what awaits the Democratic majority heading into the 2010 midterms, as nervous incumbents face a much tougher political environment than in 2006 or 2008.
"It's official: Democrats now have a retirement problem," declared Ken Spain, communications director of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Keeping up the party's drumbeat of opposition to the agenda pursued by President Barack Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Spain continued, "This is evidence of the fact that the Obama-Pelosi agenda of government takeovers, permanent bailouts, and fewer jobs is taking a political and mental toll even on incumbent Democrats who were once perceived to be firmly entrenched."
House Republican leadership aides touted Gordon's retirement as a victory. "The more moderate Democrats that bow out, the greater the chance we have of picking up seats," a senior House GOP aide said.
House Democratic leadership aides said that they expect more retirements soon, but only because the year is almost over and the House has already passed its top three priorities for the year: economic stimulus, climate change and health care reform legislation. Several older, long-tenured Members are being eyed as possible retirees in 2010, including Budget Chairman John Spratt (D-S.C.) and Armed Services Chairman Ike Skelton (D-Mo.).
Some Democrats, though, stressed that they aren't ready to hit the panic button yet.
"Our major hurdles have been crossed. It's the right time" for more retirements, one senior Democratic aide said. "We've moved the agenda in the House."
Steve Murphy, a longtime Democratic consultant and principal in the Virginia-based firm Murphy Putnam Media, noted that "it is the retirement season," the point in the election cycle at which departing incumbents often announce their intentions.
Murphy said recent retirees such as Gordon, fellow Tennessee Rep. John Tanner and Washington Rep. Brian Baird were popular figures back home who would have weathered any difficulties produced by the national political atmosphere in 2010.
"They were not being chased out by the election year," Murphy said.
Persuading incumbents to run again in 2010 is crucial for House Democratic leaders. They know that the party holding the White House almost always loses seats in a midterm election. And they know that avoiding a slew of open seats -- which are harder to hold than those defended by incumbents -- may be the difference between a moderately difficult election year and one in which Republicans could seriously threaten to erase the Democrats' 41-seat majority.
GOP strategists are convinced they will be able to at least trim the Democrats' majority by ousting junior Members who captured Republican seats in their party's 2006-08 upswing. But the net gain of at least 41 seats that Republicans need to capture a majority is daunting. The last time a party swallowed that many seats in one gulp was in 1994, when the Republicans scored a 52-seat gain.
So the Republicans will need to pad their target list with seats held by longer-serving Democrats. And the Republicans' takeover chances improve when a veteran Member voluntarily decides that it's time to go.
The NRCC has been ratcheting up attacks on Democratic incumbents whom they see as potential retirees, and the decision by 13-term incumbent Gordon to step aside may be seen by Republicans as a sign that their strategy is bearing fruit. Democrats employed the same strategy in the last two election cycles, attacking senior Republicans in swing districts in the hopes of chasing them into retirement. The strategy worked in a few places.
As chairman of the House Science and Technology Committee, Gordon is the highest-ranking among the quartet of recent Democratic retirees. The list also includes six-term Rep. Dennis Moore of Kansas, chairman of the Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations; 11-termer Tanner, chairman of the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security; and six-term incumbent Baird, chairman of the Science and Technology Subcommittee on Energy and Environment.
These departures raise uncomfortable questions for Democratic leaders about why Members who endured years in the minority are checking out not long after obtaining their committee or subcommittee gavels.
But the more immediate problem for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is that these retirements all create open-seat headaches. The two Tennessee seats are located in conservative-leaning districts that favored Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president last year while electing Democrats to the House. Gordon's 6th district gave McCain a whopping 62 percent of its votes, while Tanner's nearby 8th gave McCain 56 percent.
Obama narrowly carried Moore's home base in Kansas' 3rd district with 51 percent, and won Baird's base in Washington's 3rd with 53 percent. But Kansas' 3rd district has an overall Republican lean, Washington's 3rd is a swing district, and the NRCC has placed both high on its target list. Democrats appear to have solid candidates in the Baird and Tanner districts but have yet to recruit anyone into the Kansas race.
In addition to Spratt and Skelton, other Democratic incumbents in competitive districts who will now be closely watched for retirement jitters include Reps. Marion Berry and Vic Snyder of Arkansas, Rep. Baron Hill of Indiana, and Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania. Berry, Snyder, Skelton, Hill and Spratt all represent "McCain-Democratic" districts. Kanjorski's district is more strongly Democratic, but he faces a probable rematch with a Republican candidate whom he held off by just 3 points in 2008.
Democrats have an additional worry in Hawaii's 1st district, where Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) is resigning soon to run for governor. Although the district is reliably Democratic, all of the candidates in the special election to replace him will appear on one ballot, meaning the leading Republican candidate, Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou, could sneak in if top-tier Democrats split the Democratic vote.
It is premature, though, for Republicans to count on a wave of Democratic retirements. In the 2008 election cycle, just 11 of the 32 House Members who did not seek re-election made their announcements after Dec. 10, 2007.
Gordon's retirement made him the 21st House Member not seeking re-election, including 17 who are running for other offices. That is identical to the number of departures announced by the same point in the 2007-08 cycle.
Democrats are not suffering the kind of imbalance in open seats that the GOP endured in 2008, when there were 26 Republican open seats to just six for the Democrats. So far, there are more Republican open seats (12) for 2010 than Democratic (nine) -- though all the Republicans who are leaving the House so far are running for other offices in 2010.
And the Republicans have retirement worries of their own. They include septuagenarian Reps. Bill Young of Florida, Henry Brown of South Carolina and Vernon Ehlers of Michigan, all of whom represent potentially competitive districts. A handful of GOP-held seats that Republicans are giving up to run for other offices also are in danger of flipping to the Democrats.
But for now, it is the Democrats who seem more at risk of losing open seats.
"We don't need a lot more Members retiring in swing districts," Murphy said.
-
Jennifer Bendery and John McArdle contributed to this story.
Democrats Expect More Departures
By Bob Benenson
Roll Call Staff
Dec. 15, 2009, 12 a.m.
Rep. Bart Gordon's decision to retire brought to four the number of House Democrats from a competitive districts opting out of the 2010 cycle, further energizing Republicans and putting Democrats on high alert, with several party strategists conceding that more departures are inevitable.
Republicans held up the late-year retirements as just a hint of what awaits the Democratic majority heading into the 2010 midterms, as nervous incumbents face a much tougher political environment than in 2006 or 2008.
"It's official: Democrats now have a retirement problem," declared Ken Spain, communications director of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Keeping up the party's drumbeat of opposition to the agenda pursued by President Barack Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Spain continued, "This is evidence of the fact that the Obama-Pelosi agenda of government takeovers, permanent bailouts, and fewer jobs is taking a political and mental toll even on incumbent Democrats who were once perceived to be firmly entrenched."
House Republican leadership aides touted Gordon's retirement as a victory. "The more moderate Democrats that bow out, the greater the chance we have of picking up seats," a senior House GOP aide said.
House Democratic leadership aides said that they expect more retirements soon, but only because the year is almost over and the House has already passed its top three priorities for the year: economic stimulus, climate change and health care reform legislation. Several older, long-tenured Members are being eyed as possible retirees in 2010, including Budget Chairman John Spratt (D-S.C.) and Armed Services Chairman Ike Skelton (D-Mo.).
Some Democrats, though, stressed that they aren't ready to hit the panic button yet.
"Our major hurdles have been crossed. It's the right time" for more retirements, one senior Democratic aide said. "We've moved the agenda in the House."
Steve Murphy, a longtime Democratic consultant and principal in the Virginia-based firm Murphy Putnam Media, noted that "it is the retirement season," the point in the election cycle at which departing incumbents often announce their intentions.
Murphy said recent retirees such as Gordon, fellow Tennessee Rep. John Tanner and Washington Rep. Brian Baird were popular figures back home who would have weathered any difficulties produced by the national political atmosphere in 2010.
"They were not being chased out by the election year," Murphy said.
Persuading incumbents to run again in 2010 is crucial for House Democratic leaders. They know that the party holding the White House almost always loses seats in a midterm election. And they know that avoiding a slew of open seats -- which are harder to hold than those defended by incumbents -- may be the difference between a moderately difficult election year and one in which Republicans could seriously threaten to erase the Democrats' 41-seat majority.
GOP strategists are convinced they will be able to at least trim the Democrats' majority by ousting junior Members who captured Republican seats in their party's 2006-08 upswing. But the net gain of at least 41 seats that Republicans need to capture a majority is daunting. The last time a party swallowed that many seats in one gulp was in 1994, when the Republicans scored a 52-seat gain.
So the Republicans will need to pad their target list with seats held by longer-serving Democrats. And the Republicans' takeover chances improve when a veteran Member voluntarily decides that it's time to go.
The NRCC has been ratcheting up attacks on Democratic incumbents whom they see as potential retirees, and the decision by 13-term incumbent Gordon to step aside may be seen by Republicans as a sign that their strategy is bearing fruit. Democrats employed the same strategy in the last two election cycles, attacking senior Republicans in swing districts in the hopes of chasing them into retirement. The strategy worked in a few places.
As chairman of the House Science and Technology Committee, Gordon is the highest-ranking among the quartet of recent Democratic retirees. The list also includes six-term Rep. Dennis Moore of Kansas, chairman of the Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations; 11-termer Tanner, chairman of the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security; and six-term incumbent Baird, chairman of the Science and Technology Subcommittee on Energy and Environment.
These departures raise uncomfortable questions for Democratic leaders about why Members who endured years in the minority are checking out not long after obtaining their committee or subcommittee gavels.
But the more immediate problem for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is that these retirements all create open-seat headaches. The two Tennessee seats are located in conservative-leaning districts that favored Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for president last year while electing Democrats to the House. Gordon's 6th district gave McCain a whopping 62 percent of its votes, while Tanner's nearby 8th gave McCain 56 percent.
Obama narrowly carried Moore's home base in Kansas' 3rd district with 51 percent, and won Baird's base in Washington's 3rd with 53 percent. But Kansas' 3rd district has an overall Republican lean, Washington's 3rd is a swing district, and the NRCC has placed both high on its target list. Democrats appear to have solid candidates in the Baird and Tanner districts but have yet to recruit anyone into the Kansas race.
In addition to Spratt and Skelton, other Democratic incumbents in competitive districts who will now be closely watched for retirement jitters include Reps. Marion Berry and Vic Snyder of Arkansas, Rep. Baron Hill of Indiana, and Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania. Berry, Snyder, Skelton, Hill and Spratt all represent "McCain-Democratic" districts. Kanjorski's district is more strongly Democratic, but he faces a probable rematch with a Republican candidate whom he held off by just 3 points in 2008.
Democrats have an additional worry in Hawaii's 1st district, where Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) is resigning soon to run for governor. Although the district is reliably Democratic, all of the candidates in the special election to replace him will appear on one ballot, meaning the leading Republican candidate, Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou, could sneak in if top-tier Democrats split the Democratic vote.
It is premature, though, for Republicans to count on a wave of Democratic retirements. In the 2008 election cycle, just 11 of the 32 House Members who did not seek re-election made their announcements after Dec. 10, 2007.
Gordon's retirement made him the 21st House Member not seeking re-election, including 17 who are running for other offices. That is identical to the number of departures announced by the same point in the 2007-08 cycle.
Democrats are not suffering the kind of imbalance in open seats that the GOP endured in 2008, when there were 26 Republican open seats to just six for the Democrats. So far, there are more Republican open seats (12) for 2010 than Democratic (nine) -- though all the Republicans who are leaving the House so far are running for other offices in 2010.
And the Republicans have retirement worries of their own. They include septuagenarian Reps. Bill Young of Florida, Henry Brown of South Carolina and Vernon Ehlers of Michigan, all of whom represent potentially competitive districts. A handful of GOP-held seats that Republicans are giving up to run for other offices also are in danger of flipping to the Democrats.
But for now, it is the Democrats who seem more at risk of losing open seats.
"We don't need a lot more Members retiring in swing districts," Murphy said.
-
Jennifer Bendery and John McArdle contributed to this story.
racehorse
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/55_69/ro ... 449-1.html
What a Difference a Year Makes: the 2010 Senate Outlook
By Stuart Rothenberg
Roll Call Contributing Writer
Dec. 14, 2009, 12 a.m.
As "Saturday Night Live" character Emily Litella (played by the late Gilda Radner) would say, "Never mind."
Eleven months ago, still in the shadow of Barack Obama's presidential victory over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Democrats looked likely to gain anywhere from two to as many as five additional Senate seats.
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) was in trouble, while GOP open seats in Florida and Missouri were clearly at risk. Doubts about the prospects of at least four other Republican incumbents - North Carolina's Richard Burr, New Hampshire's Judd Gregg, Louisiana's David Vitter and Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter (who has since switched parties) - ranged from uncertain to unsettling for party strategists. And that was before Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) announced he would not run again.
But since then, GOP recruiting successes and a change in the national political environment have shifted the outlook for next year's Senate contests. Suddenly, Democratic seats started to look more and more vulnerable.
As 2009 draws to a close, Democrats now could lose seats, a dramatic change from January that could end the party's 60-seat majority in less than two years. And GOP gains could be large enough to sink any major Democratic initiatives not passed before Congress adjourns for the midterm elections.
The national Republican brand shows no signs of improving dramatically, but polling conducted in a number of the states with Senate contests next year shows GOP candidates doing better in hypothetical matchups recently than they were a few months earlier.
In Arkansas, for example, a Nov. 30-Dec. 2 Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos (D) showed Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) with a single point advantage over state Sen. Gilbert Baker, the apparent favorite for the GOP nomination. In early September, Lincoln had a much more substantial 44 percent to 37 percent advantage over Baker in another Daily Kos survey.
In Connecticut, a Nov. 3-8 Quinnipiac University poll showed former Rep. Rob Simmons, one of two serious contenders for the Republican Senate nomination, leading Sen. Chris Dodd (D) by 11 points, a larger lead than Simmons had in September (5 points), in July (9 points) or in May (6 points).
In New Hampshire, a Sept. 25-Oct. 2 University of New Hampshire survey found former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, probably the favorite for the GOP Senate nomination, leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 7 points (40 percent to 33 percent), while a June 24-July 1 UNH poll had Ayotte up by 4 points, 39 percent to 35 percent.
In Ohio, a Nov. 5-9 Quinnipiac poll found former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 39 percent to 36 percent in a very competitive Senate trial heat pitting the two primary frontrunners against each other. In a Jan. 29-Feb. 2 Quinnipiac survey, Fisher held a commanding 42 percent to 27 percent advantage over Portman.
You can certainly quibble with any of these surveys or note that in some cases the movement is small, but the trend appears to be clear.
Other races, where there hasn't been such movement, remain tight, with the race a statistical dead heat (in Missouri, for example), or with the Republican nominee holding a narrow advantage in most polling (including Kentucky, North Carolina, Illinois and Louisiana).
And in some contests, where there hasn't been enough independent polling (or the same ballot tests repeated over time), Republicans look to be in much better shape than they ever could have hoped. Colorado is a good example, as is Pennsylvania.
Delaware remains an excellent GOP opportunity, and until Attorney General Beau Biden (D) actually announces that he will take on Rep. Mike Castle (R) in the open-seat Senate race, Democrats have to be at least a wee bit nervous.
Finally, I am struck how much Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-Nev.) ballot test numbers resemble those of former Sens. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) and John Sununu (R-N.H.), as well as soon-to-be-former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D). All three, of course, lost re-election bids.
Since a late July GOP poll, Reid has not exceeded 43 percent in a ballot test against a potential opponent, and he has generally drawn around 41 percent of the vote against his two most likely Republican challengers. His last lead was in a late November 2008 Daily Kos poll in which he had a 46 percent to 40 percent advantage over former Rep. Jon Porter (R), who has since taken himself out of consideration.
The overall shift in the psychology of the cycle may keep Democrats on the defensive and help Republican fundraising. And GOP nominees could well benefit from the fact that late tossups often break to one party, not evenly between the two parties.
A little more than four months ago, I wrote in this space ("Sizing Up the 2010 Senate Contests in the Summer of 2009," Aug. 3) that for the first time this year I could "imagine a scenario where Democrats do not gain seats in 2010." That has changed again, so that Republican Senate gains are now looking likely.
--
Stuart Rothenberg is the editor of the The Rothenberg Political Report, and a regular columnist for Roll Call Newspaper.
What a Difference a Year Makes: the 2010 Senate Outlook
By Stuart Rothenberg
Roll Call Contributing Writer
Dec. 14, 2009, 12 a.m.
As "Saturday Night Live" character Emily Litella (played by the late Gilda Radner) would say, "Never mind."
Eleven months ago, still in the shadow of Barack Obama's presidential victory over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Democrats looked likely to gain anywhere from two to as many as five additional Senate seats.
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) was in trouble, while GOP open seats in Florida and Missouri were clearly at risk. Doubts about the prospects of at least four other Republican incumbents - North Carolina's Richard Burr, New Hampshire's Judd Gregg, Louisiana's David Vitter and Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter (who has since switched parties) - ranged from uncertain to unsettling for party strategists. And that was before Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) announced he would not run again.
But since then, GOP recruiting successes and a change in the national political environment have shifted the outlook for next year's Senate contests. Suddenly, Democratic seats started to look more and more vulnerable.
As 2009 draws to a close, Democrats now could lose seats, a dramatic change from January that could end the party's 60-seat majority in less than two years. And GOP gains could be large enough to sink any major Democratic initiatives not passed before Congress adjourns for the midterm elections.
The national Republican brand shows no signs of improving dramatically, but polling conducted in a number of the states with Senate contests next year shows GOP candidates doing better in hypothetical matchups recently than they were a few months earlier.
In Arkansas, for example, a Nov. 30-Dec. 2 Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos (D) showed Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) with a single point advantage over state Sen. Gilbert Baker, the apparent favorite for the GOP nomination. In early September, Lincoln had a much more substantial 44 percent to 37 percent advantage over Baker in another Daily Kos survey.
In Connecticut, a Nov. 3-8 Quinnipiac University poll showed former Rep. Rob Simmons, one of two serious contenders for the Republican Senate nomination, leading Sen. Chris Dodd (D) by 11 points, a larger lead than Simmons had in September (5 points), in July (9 points) or in May (6 points).
In New Hampshire, a Sept. 25-Oct. 2 University of New Hampshire survey found former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, probably the favorite for the GOP Senate nomination, leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 7 points (40 percent to 33 percent), while a June 24-July 1 UNH poll had Ayotte up by 4 points, 39 percent to 35 percent.
In Ohio, a Nov. 5-9 Quinnipiac poll found former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leading Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 39 percent to 36 percent in a very competitive Senate trial heat pitting the two primary frontrunners against each other. In a Jan. 29-Feb. 2 Quinnipiac survey, Fisher held a commanding 42 percent to 27 percent advantage over Portman.
You can certainly quibble with any of these surveys or note that in some cases the movement is small, but the trend appears to be clear.
Other races, where there hasn't been such movement, remain tight, with the race a statistical dead heat (in Missouri, for example), or with the Republican nominee holding a narrow advantage in most polling (including Kentucky, North Carolina, Illinois and Louisiana).
And in some contests, where there hasn't been enough independent polling (or the same ballot tests repeated over time), Republicans look to be in much better shape than they ever could have hoped. Colorado is a good example, as is Pennsylvania.
Delaware remains an excellent GOP opportunity, and until Attorney General Beau Biden (D) actually announces that he will take on Rep. Mike Castle (R) in the open-seat Senate race, Democrats have to be at least a wee bit nervous.
Finally, I am struck how much Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-Nev.) ballot test numbers resemble those of former Sens. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) and John Sununu (R-N.H.), as well as soon-to-be-former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D). All three, of course, lost re-election bids.
Since a late July GOP poll, Reid has not exceeded 43 percent in a ballot test against a potential opponent, and he has generally drawn around 41 percent of the vote against his two most likely Republican challengers. His last lead was in a late November 2008 Daily Kos poll in which he had a 46 percent to 40 percent advantage over former Rep. Jon Porter (R), who has since taken himself out of consideration.
The overall shift in the psychology of the cycle may keep Democrats on the defensive and help Republican fundraising. And GOP nominees could well benefit from the fact that late tossups often break to one party, not evenly between the two parties.
A little more than four months ago, I wrote in this space ("Sizing Up the 2010 Senate Contests in the Summer of 2009," Aug. 3) that for the first time this year I could "imagine a scenario where Democrats do not gain seats in 2010." That has changed again, so that Republican Senate gains are now looking likely.
--
Stuart Rothenberg is the editor of the The Rothenberg Political Report, and a regular columnist for Roll Call Newspaper.
racehorse
http://www.kentucky.com/473/v-print/story/1059854.html
Posted on Tue, Dec. 15, 2009
Group: Pot measure has enough sigs for 2010 ballot
By MARCUS WOHLSEN
Associated Press Writer
A group campaigning to put a marijuana legalization measure before California voters said Monday it has enough signatures to qualify for the 2010 ballot.
The measure has far more than the nearly 434,000 signatures needed to make the statewide November 2010 ballot, said Richard Lee, an Oakland medical marijuana entrepreneur and the initiative's main backer.
"We'll keep our organizers on the street to keep the momentum going strong, but today we're declaring an overwhelming victory," Lee said.
The proposal would legalize possession of up to one ounce of marijuana for adults 21 and older. Residents could cultivate marijuana gardens up to 25 square feet. City and county governments would determine whether to permit and tax marijuana sales within their boundaries.
County election officials across the state must still validate and count the signatures before the California Secretary of State places the measure on the ballot. Campaign organizers say they will submit more than 650,000 signatures of registered voters next month.
A Field Poll conducted in April found that 56 percent of California residents supported legalizing and taxing marijuana to help bridge the state budget deficit. Still, pro-legalization advocates are divided over whether the ballot measure is being pushed too soon.
Marijuana is illegal under federal law. But some legal scholars have argued the U.S. government could do little to make California enforce the federal ban if the drug became legal under state law.
Opponents of the measure contend legalization of marijuana will lead to more drug abuse among minors.
"If you increase the availability of a drug, you increase its use in youth. If you decrease the perception of harm, you increase its use in youth," said John Redman, executive director of Californians for Drug Free Youth. "Legalizing marijuana does both."
Supporters point to provisions in the legalization measure that call for jail time for anyone who sells or gives marijuana to children. It forbids smoking pot in a public place or in front of minors.
Posted on Tue, Dec. 15, 2009
Group: Pot measure has enough sigs for 2010 ballot
By MARCUS WOHLSEN
Associated Press Writer
A group campaigning to put a marijuana legalization measure before California voters said Monday it has enough signatures to qualify for the 2010 ballot.
The measure has far more than the nearly 434,000 signatures needed to make the statewide November 2010 ballot, said Richard Lee, an Oakland medical marijuana entrepreneur and the initiative's main backer.
"We'll keep our organizers on the street to keep the momentum going strong, but today we're declaring an overwhelming victory," Lee said.
The proposal would legalize possession of up to one ounce of marijuana for adults 21 and older. Residents could cultivate marijuana gardens up to 25 square feet. City and county governments would determine whether to permit and tax marijuana sales within their boundaries.
County election officials across the state must still validate and count the signatures before the California Secretary of State places the measure on the ballot. Campaign organizers say they will submit more than 650,000 signatures of registered voters next month.
A Field Poll conducted in April found that 56 percent of California residents supported legalizing and taxing marijuana to help bridge the state budget deficit. Still, pro-legalization advocates are divided over whether the ballot measure is being pushed too soon.
Marijuana is illegal under federal law. But some legal scholars have argued the U.S. government could do little to make California enforce the federal ban if the drug became legal under state law.
Opponents of the measure contend legalization of marijuana will lead to more drug abuse among minors.
"If you increase the availability of a drug, you increase its use in youth. If you decrease the perception of harm, you increase its use in youth," said John Redman, executive director of Californians for Drug Free Youth. "Legalizing marijuana does both."
Supporters point to provisions in the legalization measure that call for jail time for anyone who sells or gives marijuana to children. It forbids smoking pot in a public place or in front of minors.
racehorse
Well, that's pretty silly. The myriad social/legal/monetary problems associated with keeping it illegal, and they're talking about the "perception of harm"?"If you increase the availability of a drug, you increase its use in youth. If you decrease the perception of harm, you increase its use in youth," said John Redman, executive director of Californians for Drug Free Youth. "Legalizing marijuana does both."
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker ... edigi.html
CQ POLITICS
POLL TRACKER
Herseth Sandlin Has Single-Digit Lead in South Dakota ]
December 15, 2009 1:05 PM
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's (D-S.D.) job approval ratings have dipped below 50 percent, but she leads two prospective GOP opponents in general election match-ups, according to a survey of South Dakota voters from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling conducted Dec. 10 to 13.
Given the South Dakota's heavy Republican lean and the fact that a majority of voters disapprove of Democratic President Barack Obama, Herseth Sandlin's ratings look respectable. Forty-nine percent of voters approve of their At Large House member's job performance while 38 percent disapprove. The margin of error was 3.7 percent.
Among Democrats, the centrist Herseth Sandlin has a 63 to 24 percent approval-disapproval rating. Among Republicans, her spread is 42 to 47 percent.
However the four-term Republican leads South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) by just single digits, 46 to 39 percent. Fifteen percent are undecided. "That's a close margin given that Nelson is an unknown to 59% of voters in the state," PPP's Tom Jensen wrote in a blog post analyzing the polling data.
"Among voters who do know Nelson 29% have a favorable opinion of him to 12% unfavorable and he leads Herseth Sandlin 49-43. So this race could tighten up as he becomes better known," Jensen wrote.
Herseth Sandlin has a more comfortable lead over another declared Republican candidate, State Rep. Blake Curd, 52 to 31 percent with 17 percent undecided. But Curd is unknown by 81 percent of South Dakota voters. Six percent of voters viewed him favorably and 13 percent unfavorably.
CQ POLITICS
POLL TRACKER
Herseth Sandlin Has Single-Digit Lead in South Dakota ]
December 15, 2009 1:05 PM
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's (D-S.D.) job approval ratings have dipped below 50 percent, but she leads two prospective GOP opponents in general election match-ups, according to a survey of South Dakota voters from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling conducted Dec. 10 to 13.
Given the South Dakota's heavy Republican lean and the fact that a majority of voters disapprove of Democratic President Barack Obama, Herseth Sandlin's ratings look respectable. Forty-nine percent of voters approve of their At Large House member's job performance while 38 percent disapprove. The margin of error was 3.7 percent.
Among Democrats, the centrist Herseth Sandlin has a 63 to 24 percent approval-disapproval rating. Among Republicans, her spread is 42 to 47 percent.
However the four-term Republican leads South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) by just single digits, 46 to 39 percent. Fifteen percent are undecided. "That's a close margin given that Nelson is an unknown to 59% of voters in the state," PPP's Tom Jensen wrote in a blog post analyzing the polling data.
"Among voters who do know Nelson 29% have a favorable opinion of him to 12% unfavorable and he leads Herseth Sandlin 49-43. So this race could tighten up as he becomes better known," Jensen wrote.
Herseth Sandlin has a more comfortable lead over another declared Republican candidate, State Rep. Blake Curd, 52 to 31 percent with 17 percent undecided. But Curd is unknown by 81 percent of South Dakota voters. Six percent of voters viewed him favorably and 13 percent unfavorably.
racehorse
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline ... 91215_2050
Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2009
Charlie Cook
OFF TO THE RACES
How Deep Is The Water For Democrats?
Gordon's Decision Not To Run In 2010 Complicates Things For The Party
Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2009
by Charlie Cook
Monday morning's announcement by Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., that he would not seek re-election certainly stirred things up on Capitol Hill.
It's an exaggeration to say that the dam is breaking for House Democrats as incumbents in tough districts retire. But it's an understatement to say that four such members announcing their retirements in four weeks is a trickle.
One can understand the indigestion building in Democratic leadership offices in seeing Reps. Dennis Moore, D-Kan., John Tanner, D-Tenn., Brian Baird, D-Wash., and now Gordon all stepping down and opening up seats that will be difficult to defend. Add to that number the open seat created by Rep. Charlie Melancon's Senate run in Louisiana; it's a goner.
If a trend were to develop, it would start pretty much as this has so far.
Gordon's contest had been rated by the Cook Political Report as Likely Democratic until Nov. 19, when it was shifted to Lean Democrat. With his departure triggering an open seat, and with its Cook Partisan Voting Index at R+13 -- meaning that in presidential balloting it votes 13 percentage points more Republican than the nation as a whole -- it is now rated likely Republican.
Quite simply, not enough House Democratic members in tough districts have retired to cost the party its majority, but if a trend were to develop, it would start pretty much as this has so far.
Always being helpful, the National Republican Congressional Committee already has an effort designed to push a dozen or so wavering Democrats toward retirement decisions. On the other end, former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Martin Frost of Texas recently suggested that the Obama White House be willing to guarantee post-midterm election jobs to certain members if they opt to run for re-election and still lose.
Probably the best way to look at the Democrats' situation is to look at relative levels of security of each of their 435 seats compared to early June.
The Cook Political Report now has 174 seats in the Solid Democratic column; 44 others rated as Likely Democrat, meaning not yet but potentially competitive; and 23 more seats in the Lean Democratic column, meaning competitive.
There are 19 seats rated as Toss Up, in which neither party can claim a clear advantage. There are eight seats in the Lean Republican column, 16 in the Likely Republican group and 151 rated as Solidly Republican.
Put in a more understandable format, the current number of Solid and Likely Democratic seats is 218, coincidentally the barest possible majority.
That means that today, if Democrats just hold the seats they ought to be able to hold but lose 100 percent of the 50 competitive races, they would still hang onto their majority by an eyelash.
As a practical matter, no party has ever lost or won all of the competitive races, but the shrinkage we have seen lately in those Solid and Likely Democratic columns means that any more retirements in tough districts will be a problem for Democrats.
On June 2, there were 199 seats in the Solid Democratic column and 34 more in the Likely Democratic column, for a total of 233 in seats strongly favored for Democrats, 15 more than there are today. There were 21 seats in the Lean Democratic column and five seats for both parties in the Toss Up column.
On the Republican side, there were six seats in the Lean Republican column, 36 more in the Likely Republican column, and 134 in the Solid Republican column.
The field of endangered GOP seats is shrinking -- though Democrats do have legitimate chances with a handful -- while the number of Democratic seats in jeopardy has been expanding, in a trend that really accelerated over the summer.
As this column pointed out last week, when parties have tough years, they tend to lose a lot of open seats, though the range varies enormously.
Republicans lost 38 percent of their open seats in 2006, but Democrats lost a whopping 71 percent of their open seats 1994. The variable is the kind of open seats they are, whether they are safe or endangered districts.
But the more Democratic retirements in tough districts there are, the larger the GOP win percentage from that group is likely to be and the lower the percentage of Democratic incumbents that the GOP would have to knock off.
Ten percent of all Republican House incumbents running for re-election in 2006, a tough year for the GOP, lost, and 15 percent of all of the Democratic incumbents running in 1994 lost.
So this business of whether the GOP can or will capture a majority next year is based on a lot of moving parts, but one of the most critical is Democratic retirements in tough districts.
So far, only Illinois' filing deadline has passed. Over the next few months it will be critical to watch whether there will be a constant flow, if the dam breaks or it diminishes to a trickle. One thing is certain: The last month can't make Democrats feel any better.
Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2009
Charlie Cook
OFF TO THE RACES
How Deep Is The Water For Democrats?
Gordon's Decision Not To Run In 2010 Complicates Things For The Party
Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2009
by Charlie Cook
Monday morning's announcement by Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., that he would not seek re-election certainly stirred things up on Capitol Hill.
It's an exaggeration to say that the dam is breaking for House Democrats as incumbents in tough districts retire. But it's an understatement to say that four such members announcing their retirements in four weeks is a trickle.
One can understand the indigestion building in Democratic leadership offices in seeing Reps. Dennis Moore, D-Kan., John Tanner, D-Tenn., Brian Baird, D-Wash., and now Gordon all stepping down and opening up seats that will be difficult to defend. Add to that number the open seat created by Rep. Charlie Melancon's Senate run in Louisiana; it's a goner.
If a trend were to develop, it would start pretty much as this has so far.
Gordon's contest had been rated by the Cook Political Report as Likely Democratic until Nov. 19, when it was shifted to Lean Democrat. With his departure triggering an open seat, and with its Cook Partisan Voting Index at R+13 -- meaning that in presidential balloting it votes 13 percentage points more Republican than the nation as a whole -- it is now rated likely Republican.
Quite simply, not enough House Democratic members in tough districts have retired to cost the party its majority, but if a trend were to develop, it would start pretty much as this has so far.
Always being helpful, the National Republican Congressional Committee already has an effort designed to push a dozen or so wavering Democrats toward retirement decisions. On the other end, former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Martin Frost of Texas recently suggested that the Obama White House be willing to guarantee post-midterm election jobs to certain members if they opt to run for re-election and still lose.
Probably the best way to look at the Democrats' situation is to look at relative levels of security of each of their 435 seats compared to early June.
The Cook Political Report now has 174 seats in the Solid Democratic column; 44 others rated as Likely Democrat, meaning not yet but potentially competitive; and 23 more seats in the Lean Democratic column, meaning competitive.
There are 19 seats rated as Toss Up, in which neither party can claim a clear advantage. There are eight seats in the Lean Republican column, 16 in the Likely Republican group and 151 rated as Solidly Republican.
Put in a more understandable format, the current number of Solid and Likely Democratic seats is 218, coincidentally the barest possible majority.
That means that today, if Democrats just hold the seats they ought to be able to hold but lose 100 percent of the 50 competitive races, they would still hang onto their majority by an eyelash.
As a practical matter, no party has ever lost or won all of the competitive races, but the shrinkage we have seen lately in those Solid and Likely Democratic columns means that any more retirements in tough districts will be a problem for Democrats.
On June 2, there were 199 seats in the Solid Democratic column and 34 more in the Likely Democratic column, for a total of 233 in seats strongly favored for Democrats, 15 more than there are today. There were 21 seats in the Lean Democratic column and five seats for both parties in the Toss Up column.
On the Republican side, there were six seats in the Lean Republican column, 36 more in the Likely Republican column, and 134 in the Solid Republican column.
The field of endangered GOP seats is shrinking -- though Democrats do have legitimate chances with a handful -- while the number of Democratic seats in jeopardy has been expanding, in a trend that really accelerated over the summer.
As this column pointed out last week, when parties have tough years, they tend to lose a lot of open seats, though the range varies enormously.
Republicans lost 38 percent of their open seats in 2006, but Democrats lost a whopping 71 percent of their open seats 1994. The variable is the kind of open seats they are, whether they are safe or endangered districts.
But the more Democratic retirements in tough districts there are, the larger the GOP win percentage from that group is likely to be and the lower the percentage of Democratic incumbents that the GOP would have to knock off.
Ten percent of all Republican House incumbents running for re-election in 2006, a tough year for the GOP, lost, and 15 percent of all of the Democratic incumbents running in 1994 lost.
So this business of whether the GOP can or will capture a majority next year is based on a lot of moving parts, but one of the most critical is Democratic retirements in tough districts.
So far, only Illinois' filing deadline has passed. Over the next few months it will be critical to watch whether there will be a constant flow, if the dam breaks or it diminishes to a trickle. One thing is certain: The last month can't make Democrats feel any better.
racehorse
Poll: Lieberman Would Lose 2012 Re-Election In Landslide
If Joe Lieberman decides to run for a fifth term in 2012, a new Quinnipiac poll suggests that it may be a lost cause.
The new poll tests Lieberman as an independent against Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. The numbers: Blumenthal 58%, Lieberman 30%. Yikes.
Lieberman's active campaigning against the Democratic Party last year hasn't won him too many friends back home. Democrats go for Blumenthal by 83%-9%, and independents are for Blumenthal 55%-29%. Lieberman is the de facto Republican nominee in this match, and with GOP voters he scores 67%-23% over Blumenthal.
Lieberman's job approval is also at only 45%, with 48% disapproving. Among Democrats that's a 21%-70% rating, Republicans 75%-20%, while independents give him a narrow approval of 48%-46%.
A lot can happen in four years, but right now it doesn't look like Lieberman has too many options. He can't run as a Democrat, he would still lose as a Republican, and there's no reason to believe that staying as an independent will provide much more of an opportunity.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009 ... dslide.php
The new poll tests Lieberman as an independent against Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. The numbers: Blumenthal 58%, Lieberman 30%. Yikes.
Lieberman's active campaigning against the Democratic Party last year hasn't won him too many friends back home. Democrats go for Blumenthal by 83%-9%, and independents are for Blumenthal 55%-29%. Lieberman is the de facto Republican nominee in this match, and with GOP voters he scores 67%-23% over Blumenthal.
Lieberman's job approval is also at only 45%, with 48% disapproving. Among Democrats that's a 21%-70% rating, Republicans 75%-20%, while independents give him a narrow approval of 48%-46%.
A lot can happen in four years, but right now it doesn't look like Lieberman has too many options. He can't run as a Democrat, he would still lose as a Republican, and there's no reason to believe that staying as an independent will provide much more of an opportunity.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009 ... dslide.php
http://news.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/prin ... 09_46.html
Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2009
Decade of politics leaves Americans still divided
WASHINGTON (AP) - It wasn't so long ago that politicians had the luxury to bicker over how to spend a record budget surplus, Barack Obama was a state senator trying unsuccessfully to get a foot in the door of the U.S. Capitol, and George W. Bush went to sleep with visions of a dominant Republican majority dancing in his head.
This first decade of the 21st century has taken us from hanging chad to fist bumps and beyond.
From peace and prosperity to war and economic turmoil.
In two improbable elections that serve as bookends to the decade, Americans elected - barely - a pedigreed president following in his father's footsteps and then - surprisingly easily - a trailblazer who symbolically closed the nation's long festering wounds over race relations.
Bush offered himself as a "uniter, not a divider." Obama exhorted Americans to put aside "petty grievances."
In the end, though, people came away more divided than ever and still dissatisfied with the state of the nation.
People wanted to be united all right, "but they meant 'united on my terms,'" says Kathleen Hall Jamieson, an expert on political communication at the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
---
It was five agonizing weeks after Election Day 2000 when Bush finally laid claim to the presidency.
The long-in-limbo presidential election - the closest in 124 years - didn't end until the Supreme Court put a halt to the recount of ballots in Florida.
Chads begone.
"The darn thing had to stop somewhere," said Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a former Democrat who switched to the Republican Party.
But less than half the nation thought Bush had won fair and square; nearly half weren't confident that votes had been accurately counted. And there was plenty of scar tissue on the body politic.
Bush made early overtures to begin the healing.
"I know America wants reconciliation and unity," he told the nation. "And we must seize this moment and deliver."
---
It seems almost quaint in hindsight: Bush's campaign was built on expectations that the federal budget would run surpluses for a decade or more.
His agenda was one of peacetime possibilities: giant tax cuts, more money for education, free prescription drugs for seniors, and more.
He delivered some of it. But by Bush's last year in office, the red ink was nearing a half-trillion dollars. (This year's deficit estimates stretch to $1.5 trillion.)
The planes that knocked down the World Trade Center towers had knocked everything else off kilter, too.
Shock and mourning gave way to shock and awe - and Bush's misplaced confidence that with a one-two punch, the U.S. would make quick work of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Enter Obama. Elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004, Obama was talked up as presidential fodder before he even set foot in Washington.
And for once, reality lived up to that hype.
Bush, his presidency weighed down by two wars and the seizing economy, left office with the worst ratings since Richard Nixon.
His signature achievement was what didn't happen: "America has gone more than seven years without another terrorist attack on our soil," he said with pride.
---
"Change has come to America," a jubilant Obama declared on Election Day 2008.
If nothing else, the decade's politics surely will be remembered for that moment when a nation built on slavery elected its first black president.
"If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible," Obama told a crowd that night in Chicago's Grant Park, "tonight is your answer."
Signs of sweeping changes, symbolic and substantive, were everywhere as Obama quickly set about reversing eight years of Republican rule.
But it wasn't nearly as simple as "Yes, we can."
Obama, after all, is a center-left politician trying to govern a center-right country. His early overtures for bipartisanship won him some kind words from Republicans but little more.
"The radicalness of the decade has overwhelmed him and made it impossible to achieve his ambitions," said Jeffrey Goldfarb, a sociologist at the New School for Social Research in New York who studies cynicism and politics.
Approaching the end of his first year in office, Obama still has the approval of most Americans. But the public's mood is increasingly glum. Unemployment is still on the rise, bickering over how to overhaul the health-care system turned increasingly rancorous and the turmoil in Afghanistan persists.
"We just are not where we want to be yet," Obama said during a recent appearance at the White House. "We've got a long way to go."
He was talking about the economy. But his words speak to so much more.
Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2009
Decade of politics leaves Americans still divided
WASHINGTON (AP) - It wasn't so long ago that politicians had the luxury to bicker over how to spend a record budget surplus, Barack Obama was a state senator trying unsuccessfully to get a foot in the door of the U.S. Capitol, and George W. Bush went to sleep with visions of a dominant Republican majority dancing in his head.
This first decade of the 21st century has taken us from hanging chad to fist bumps and beyond.
From peace and prosperity to war and economic turmoil.
In two improbable elections that serve as bookends to the decade, Americans elected - barely - a pedigreed president following in his father's footsteps and then - surprisingly easily - a trailblazer who symbolically closed the nation's long festering wounds over race relations.
Bush offered himself as a "uniter, not a divider." Obama exhorted Americans to put aside "petty grievances."
In the end, though, people came away more divided than ever and still dissatisfied with the state of the nation.
People wanted to be united all right, "but they meant 'united on my terms,'" says Kathleen Hall Jamieson, an expert on political communication at the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.
---
It was five agonizing weeks after Election Day 2000 when Bush finally laid claim to the presidency.
The long-in-limbo presidential election - the closest in 124 years - didn't end until the Supreme Court put a halt to the recount of ballots in Florida.
Chads begone.
"The darn thing had to stop somewhere," said Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a former Democrat who switched to the Republican Party.
But less than half the nation thought Bush had won fair and square; nearly half weren't confident that votes had been accurately counted. And there was plenty of scar tissue on the body politic.
Bush made early overtures to begin the healing.
"I know America wants reconciliation and unity," he told the nation. "And we must seize this moment and deliver."
---
It seems almost quaint in hindsight: Bush's campaign was built on expectations that the federal budget would run surpluses for a decade or more.
His agenda was one of peacetime possibilities: giant tax cuts, more money for education, free prescription drugs for seniors, and more.
He delivered some of it. But by Bush's last year in office, the red ink was nearing a half-trillion dollars. (This year's deficit estimates stretch to $1.5 trillion.)
The planes that knocked down the World Trade Center towers had knocked everything else off kilter, too.
Shock and mourning gave way to shock and awe - and Bush's misplaced confidence that with a one-two punch, the U.S. would make quick work of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Enter Obama. Elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004, Obama was talked up as presidential fodder before he even set foot in Washington.
And for once, reality lived up to that hype.
Bush, his presidency weighed down by two wars and the seizing economy, left office with the worst ratings since Richard Nixon.
His signature achievement was what didn't happen: "America has gone more than seven years without another terrorist attack on our soil," he said with pride.
---
"Change has come to America," a jubilant Obama declared on Election Day 2008.
If nothing else, the decade's politics surely will be remembered for that moment when a nation built on slavery elected its first black president.
"If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible," Obama told a crowd that night in Chicago's Grant Park, "tonight is your answer."
Signs of sweeping changes, symbolic and substantive, were everywhere as Obama quickly set about reversing eight years of Republican rule.
But it wasn't nearly as simple as "Yes, we can."
Obama, after all, is a center-left politician trying to govern a center-right country. His early overtures for bipartisanship won him some kind words from Republicans but little more.
"The radicalness of the decade has overwhelmed him and made it impossible to achieve his ambitions," said Jeffrey Goldfarb, a sociologist at the New School for Social Research in New York who studies cynicism and politics.
Approaching the end of his first year in office, Obama still has the approval of most Americans. But the public's mood is increasingly glum. Unemployment is still on the rise, bickering over how to overhaul the health-care system turned increasingly rancorous and the turmoil in Afghanistan persists.
"We just are not where we want to be yet," Obama said during a recent appearance at the White House. "We've got a long way to go."
He was talking about the economy. But his words speak to so much more.
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