Elections 2009-2012

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Elections 2009-2012

Post by racehorse » 06-17-2009 05:17 PM

There will be elections for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia this year. Both states appear to be very competitive. Governors will also be elected in many states in 2010 and 2012. Democrats currently control more Governorships than Republicans. Will this change? In 2011 Kentucky and Mississippi will also elect Governors (Louisiana will as well but Bobby Jindal should be heavily favored there to win reelection) and could serve as a possible early indicator of election trends for the Presidential race in 2012.

In 2010, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election, as they are every two years. Will Democrats maintain or possibly even expand their control of the chamber. Alternately, will the Grand Old Party make major gains? Is control of the House likely to change? Depending on events, all these options are possible.

One third of the seats in the United States Senate will also be up for election in 2010 and again in 2012. Can Democrats gain a few seats and have a completely Filibuster proof Senate? Can Republicans make significant gains. For the GOP to regain control of the Senate in 2010 currently appears to be a difficult task but will events change the conventional wisdom? GOP prospects look much brighter for control in 2012 depending of course on what happens between now and then and with the Presidential election.

At this point, President Obama appears unlikely to face a primary challenge from any major Democrat. Events could change this but as of now Barack Obama would appear well positioned to avoid this and indeed must be considered favored over any GOP nominee. However, it is still very early and issues we have not even contemplated will certainly factor in the Presidential race.

Possible Republican Presidential contenders are already considering strategies and getting ready for campaigns. Among those who may seek the GOP nomination are Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, United States Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich, Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, and of course Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Others will also make the race, probably some which will surprise us.

There will be much to follow politically between now and 2012. There is an ancient Chinese "curse" or as I prefer to look at it a "blessing" that says "May you live in interesting times". I think these upcoming elections prove that we do and will. ;)
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Post by racehorse » 06-17-2009 05:18 PM

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline ... 6_4902.php

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

ON THE TRAIL

For Dems In 2010, Tomorrow May Not Come

What If Congressional Candidates Have To Defend Economic Results That Aren't There?


Tuesday, June 16, 2009
by Amy Walter

There are two very different elections going on.

In 2012, President Obama will have had four years to see if the gamble on big federal outlays into a stimulus package, auto and bank bailouts, and energy investments has paid off. For congressional Democrats up in 2010, however, the long view isn't politically feasible.

At a recent Christian Science Monitor breakfast, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer handed out a tightly spaced one-pager that listed 13 "major initiatives" that have been enacted into law since Obama took office. To be sure, it's an impressive list. But the next election will be a referendum on the economy. Period. If things are looking good, then Democrats can make the case for why it's important to keep their party in charge. If it's not, then all the bragging about the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act or Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights won't mean much.

At this point, it's tough to argue that the stimulus has indeed stimulated the economy.

The bottom line is that right now, there's little tangible proof that all the outflows have made much of an impact. In a new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, about as many people think General Motors will be profitable in five years as think it will be out of business. Meanwhile, just 9 percent in a new McClatchy-Ipsos poll say the economy has turned the corner, with 37 percent expecting it to get worse. The good news, if you want to call it that, is that just four months ago, more than half of voters (54 percent) thought the economy would get worse.

Yet, watching Vice President Joe Biden's awkward attempts to promote the benefits of the stimulus package suggests that congressional Democrats will have their work cut out for them. A greater effort by the White House to get the money out the door could help matters. At this point, however, it's tough to argue that the stimulus has indeed stimulated the economy.

On "Meet the Press" this Sunday, when asked by moderator David Gregory about the rationale behind the administration's estimate of 150,000 jobs created or saved by the stimulus, Biden replied: "There's an econometric model that economists have been using for decades to correlate the economic circumstances of the nation with the creation of jobs.... It's a model the Council of Economic Advisers have used to come up with that 150,000 jobs."

Um, what? You lost me at "econometric model." Just imagine trying to put this into a compelling 30-second commercial.

As the "cheerleader in chief" for stimulus spending, Biden's been touring local communities to give an "all politics is local" pitch for the benefits of the program. But if voters are looking at high unemployment next year, the promise of a $1.7 million replacement bridge over Conodoguinet Creek in Carlisle, Pa., isn't going to make them feel much better.

It's not just Republicans who are complaining about the stimulus package. The U.S. Conference of Mayors, meeting this weekend in Providence, R.I., complained that cities have been shortchanged when it comes to federal stimulus money.

Some congressional Democrats, especially those facing unpalatable votes on health care reform (i.e. raising taxes), will be tempted to vote against the president to avoid being pulled down in 2010. But with their party in control of Congress and the White House, it's going to be really hard for any Democrat to run as a "lone wolf," especially if that member is a freshman without an established identity back home. This isn't to suggest that Democrats should simply follow Obama lockstep. But as we've seen with Republican moderates the last two cycles, if the brand goes bad, sometimes it doesn't matter how you voted.

For now, Obama still has a reservoir of good will built up with the public, and his high approval numbers may help insulate members of his party.

Ultimately, though, watching Democrats these days reminds me of the kids' board game "Don't Break the Ice." In that game, a plastic polar bear was placed on top of an elevated board made up of individual cubes of "ice." The goal of the game was to knock out as many pieces as possible without sending the polar bear crashing to the ground. Sometimes the polar bear came down after one piece was knocked out; sometimes he could still be standing even as his ice world crumbled all around him.

Obama won't necessarily be the polar bear on the floor in 2012. But a lagging economy could take out quite a bit of the Democrats' board.
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Post by racehorse » 06-17-2009 05:22 PM

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... nal_ballot

Generic Congressional Ballot

Generic Ballot Remains a Tie for Second Straight Week


Tuesday, June 16, 2009


Democratic and Republican candidates are tied for the second straight week in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 39% would vote for their district’s Democratic congressional candidate while 39% would choose the Republican.

Support for both parties dropped one point from last week. Support for Democratic candidates is just one point above its low point for the past year. Support for the GOP is just two points below its highest level found over the same time period.

Men favor the GOP by a five-point margin, while women prefer Democrats by the same margin.

Voters not affiliated with either party favor the GOP 33% to 23%.

Democratic support has ranged from a low of 38% to a high of 50% in the past 12 months. In that same time period, Republicans have been preferred by 34% to 41% of voters nationwide.

Since the first week of the year, Democratic support has ranged from 38% to 42%, while the Republican range has been from 35% to 41%.

Democrats held a six- or seven-point lead over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009. That began to slip in early February, and the Republicans actually took a two-point lead for a single week in the middle of March. Since mid-April, the parties have been roughly even.

Recent polling shows that 51% of Americans favor an across-the-board tax cut for all Americans to stimulate the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, most voters (53%) believe increases in government spending hurt the economy.

When it comes to health care, 80% of U.S. voters oppose providing government health care coverage for illegal immigrants as part of the health care reform package that is working its way through Congress. A more recent survey shows that 41% of American adults believe it would be a good idea to set up a government health insurance company to compete with private health insurance companies, but an identical percentage does not think it’s a good idea.

On a different topic, North Korea now tops the list of nations voters believe to be the biggest threats to U.S. national security.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 8-14, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 1 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence.
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Post by racehorse » 06-17-2009 05:42 PM

http://tiny.cc/SOBAb

Election 2010: Pennsylvania Democratic Senate Primary

Pennsylvania Senate Primary: Specter 51% Sestak 32%


Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Senator Arlen Specter leads Congressman Joe Sestak by 19 percentage points in an early look at the 2010 Democratic Senatorial Primary in Pennsylvania. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Specter attracting 51% of the vote while Sestak earns 32%.

Not surprisingly, Specter, a senator for nearly 30 years, is much better known than Sestak, a retired Navy admiral and second-term congressman from the Philadelphia suburbs.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of likely Democratic Primary voters have a very favorable opinion of the incumbent senator, who recently switched parties to improve his chances for reelection. Only 18% say the same for Sestak.

The number with a very unfavorable view is virtually identical: 10% for Specter and nine percent (9%) for Sestak.

Tomorrow (Thursday), Rasmussen Reports will release general election match-ups featuring Specter and Sestak against the Republicans' likely Senate nominee, former Congressman Pat Toomey.

Specter, a Republican senator since 1981, has always had a difficult relationship with the GOP base. Earlier this year, he was one of only three Senate Republicans to vote for President Obama's economic stimulus package. That vote clearly hurt him back in the Keystone State where a majority of Republicans said they were less likely to vote for him because of his stimulus support.

Toomey, who Specter narrowly defeated in the 2004 state Republican Primary, announced his plans to challenge the incumbent again next year. Just after subsequent polling showed Specter trailing Toomey by 21 points in a GOP Primary match-up, the senator switched parties and became a Democrat.

While Specter was coaxed by senior Democrats to switch with the promise that he would be the party's Senate nominee in 2010, Sestak is bucking his own party leaders to mount a primary challenge. Both Obama and Pennsylvania Governor Edward Rendell have already endorsed Specter and pledged to campaign for him.

Looking ahead to 2010, it is not clear how Specter's vote on the stimulus bill will impact his bid for reelection. Just 31% of voters nationwide believe the stimulus plan has helped the economy while 27% say it has hurt. A solid plurality now say that all remaining stimulus spending should be cancelled. However, opinions of the economy and the stimulus package may be substantially different in 2010.

Specter leads Sestak among men and women, young and old. He has a substantial lead among African-American voters, but the two candidates are essentially even among white voters in a Democratic Primary match-up.
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Post by racehorse » 06-18-2009 12:38 PM

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/ ... ginia.html

June 18, 2009

Dead Heat in Virginia

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Virginia finds Bob McDonnell (R) edging Creigh Deeds (D) in the gubernatorial race, 45% to 44%.

With a survey margin of error of +/- 4 points, the race is essentially tied.

McDonnell has a 55% to 36% favorablity rating while Deeds is at 47% to 35%.
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Post by racehorse » 06-18-2009 12:44 PM

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... e_election

Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate Election

Pennsylvania 2010 Senate Match-ups: Specter, Sestak Top Toomey


Thursday, June 18, 2009

Likely Republican nominee Pat Toomey trails both of the Democrats who are vying for their party's nomination “ Senator Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak, in potential match-ups for next year's U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows Specter leading Toomey by 11 points, 50% to 39%.

Sestak bests Toomey by a narrower 41% to 35%.

But incumbents who poll at 50% or less are generally viewed as vulnerable, and Specter, who recently switched parties to become a Democrat, may face a bruising Democratic primary. Also, Toomey could be helped or hurt by the state of the economy and the level of President Obama' popularity 17 months from now.

A former congressman who unsuccessfully challenged Specter for the GOP nomination in 2004, Toomey fares much better in the favorability race.

Fifty percent (50%) of Pennsylvania voters have a favorable opinion of Toomey, including 15% whose view is very favorable. Thirty-five percent (35%) have a unfavorable view, with 16% very unfavorable. But 16% don't know enough about Toomey to have an opinion of him.

Specter, who has represented the state in the Senate since 1981, is viewed favorably by 53%, with 24% very favorable. His unfavorables total 43%, with 26% very unfavorable. Just three percent (3%) are not sure what they think of Specter.

Forty-two percent (42%) have a favorable opinion of Sestak, a second-term congressman from the Philadelphia suburbs who is defying party leaders to challenge Specter. Of that group, 12% view him very favorably. Thirty-two percent (32%) regard Sestak unfavorably, including 11% very unfavorable.

But a large number of voters (26%) don't know him well enough to have an opinion.

Specter leads Sestak by 19 percentage points, 51% to 32% - in an early look at the 2010 Democratic Senatorial Primary in Pennsylvania.

Specter, a longtime GOP senator, switched parties and became a Democrat several weeks ago just after a Rasmussen Reports poll in the state showed him trailing Toomey by 21 points in a likely Republican Senate Primary match-up.

Specter acknowledged that one of the reasons he changed parties was a fear that he might lose his own party's nomination even though he felt sure he had a better chance of winning the general election than Toomey.

Particularly damaging to Specter among Pennsylvania Republicans was his vote for President Obama's economic stimulus plan, one of only three cast by Republicans for it.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republican voters favor Toomey in a match-up with Specter, who draws 74% of the Democratic vote and 23% of Republicans.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of GOP voters support Toomey in a race against Sestak, who earns 64% of Democrats and just 13% of Republicans.

As part of the effort to coax Specter into switching parties to move Democrats closer to a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, both the president and Pennsylvania's Democratic governor, Edward Rendell, endorsed Specter as the party's Senate nominee in 2010. They also promised to campaign for him. Sestak, angry like many Democrats in the state about a longtime Republican suddenly becoming the Democratic candidate for Senate, has vowed to challenge Specter for the nomination.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Pennsylvania voters now approve of Rendell's job performance, while 46% disapprove.

Sixty percent (60%) approve of Obama's job performance, while 39% disapprove. This is slightly higher than the national findings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Post by racehorse » 06-19-2009 12:55 PM

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/ ... awaii.html

June 19, 2009

Abercrombie Takes Lead in Hawaii

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll finds Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) leading in a Democratic primary matchup against Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (D), 42% to 22%.

Abercrombie also leads in a general election matchup against Hawaii Lt. Governor Duke Aiona (R), 45% to 36%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) is well ahead of Gov. Linda Lingle (R), 52% to 40%.
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Post by racehorse » 06-20-2009 12:03 AM

http://www.politics1.com/

FLORIDA.

Sources tell Politics1 that billionaire businessman Tom Golisano -- a former three-time Independent candidate for New York Governor -- is now contemplating a Democratic run for Florida's open US Senate seat. Golisano, who owns homes in both New York and Florida, recently switched his residency to the Sunshine State. The New York Times also reported Golisano was the driving influence beyond the recent New York Senate leadership coup which threw the body into turmoil. Governor Charlie Crist (R) contacted Golisano last week to seek his financial support for Crist's Senate campaign, but was politely rebuffed.
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Post by Shirleypal » 06-20-2009 12:10 AM

And the beat goes on, here I thought he changed his residency to Florida because there is no State income tax there..good luck to Tom Golisano.

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Post by racehorse » 06-21-2009 09:46 PM

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/ ... ouble.html

June 21, 2009

Strickland in Trouble

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio finds Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) approval rating is down to 43% and he leads John Kasich (R) by just two points, 44% to 42%, in a likely 2010 contest.

"Strickland has seen a decline in popularity among both Democrats and Republicans. Where previously 70% of voters within his party gave him good marks, now just 62% do. And the percentage of Republicans disapproving of him has increased from 59% to 72%. His numbers with independents are relatively steady."
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Post by racehorse » 06-22-2009 06:00 PM

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124570448605338467.html

* JUNE 22, 2009, 5:24 P.M. ET

Los Angeles Mayor Will Not Run for California Governor

By STU WOO and SABRINA SHANKMAN

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said Monday he will not run for governor of California, potentially upending the 2010 race and marking a setback in the onetime Democratic star's efforts to become a force on the national political stage.

Mr. Villaraigosa's announcement came during an afternoon interview on CNN, during which the mayor said that the cratering economy loomed large in his decision. "I can't leave this city in the middle of a crisis," Mr. Villaraigosa said.

The announcement shakes up the Democratic field for next year's gubernatorial race. Mr. Villaraigosa, 56 years old and known as a dynamic campaigner, was the only Southern California or Latino candidate expected to run in next summer's primary. In a March Field Poll survey, he garnered 22% support among Democrats, trailing state Attorney General Jerry Brown's 26%. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom was third with 16%. Mr. Newsom has declared his candidacy, while Mr. Brown has said only that he is considering a run, though he has been actively raising funds for one.

Mr. Villaraigosa's decision to stay out of the race creates more uncertainty in the Democratic field, said Mark Baldassare, president of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

"The mayor of the most populous city and region of the state isn't running for governor," Mr. Baldassare said. "Where will the Southern California voters go without a recognizable figure?"

Mr. Villaraigosa built a national profile while campaigning on behalf of Democratic candidates during the 2008 presidential-election cycle. He supported Hillary Clinton during the primary and Barack Obama during the general election. Mr. Villaraigosa's career took off at the same time the importance of Latino voters soared, since the group is the fastest-growing segment of the U.S. population, and with 45 million they constitute the largest ethnic minority. Without Mr. Villaraigosa in the mix, the Latino vote, which makes up 32.4% of the state's electorate, appears to be up for grabs. Mr. Baldassare predicted Messrs. Brown and Newsom would battle for those votes in the primary.

Mr. Villaraigosa's withdrawal did not surprise Democratic consultants in California. He is to begin his second term as mayor of Los Angeles on July 1, after garnering only 56% of votes in March when he ran for re-election against a field of unknowns. The former labor organizer has also faced resistance in asking for union concessions to close a massive budget deficit.

Los Angeles voters have also been frustrated by the poor state of the city's public schools and by its budget problems, which include a projected $530 million deficit.

A poll published Sunday by the Los Angeles Times showed that the mayor had a favorable job approval rating of 55% among registered voters -- roughly equivalent to the votes he won in the March election. In the face of the city's 12.5% unemployment rate, Mr. Villaraigosa said his approval rating "isn't so bad." Nonetheless, Mr. Villaraigosa added: "I need to do a better job."

Mr. Villaraigosa was also facing scrutiny for dating a television news reporter, years after he had an affair with another television reporter that resulted in a divorce filing by the mayor's wife of 20 years.

Mr. Villaraigosa, the former speaker of California's Assembly, has also hinted he has other plans. Earlier this month, he was elected second vice president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors. The position puts him in line to be president of the association in 2011.

On the Republican side, two Silicon Valley billionaires are running: former eBay Inc. chief Meg Whitman and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Former Congressman Tom Campbell has also declared his candidacy.

California's next governor will be asked to resuscitate an economy that won't see normal growth until 2011, according to the University of California at Los Angeles's Anderson Forecast. The nation's most populous state has one of the highest jobless rates, 11.5%, and massive home-loan foreclosure rates.

The California economy, the world's eighth-largest by some measures, is expected to take another hit in coming weeks as lawmakers debate how to close a $24 billion deficit. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed eliminating major welfare programs, cutting $5 billion from education and furloughing state workers. Leaders of the Democratic-controlled legislature say they will accept many of the governor's proposed cuts, but have proposed new taxes to save the welfare programs. The state Senate is scheduled to begin voting on budget bills on Wednesday.

The $24 billion shortfall comes on top of a $42 billion deficit lawmakers partially closed in February through steep cuts and new taxes.
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Post by racehorse » 06-23-2009 10:44 AM

http://www.politics1.com/

OHIO.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R) got some good news last week. Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones (R), who previously launched an exploratory committee for the seat, had said he planned to challenge Boehner from the right. "After extensive review and discussions with various individuals in the political and private sectors, and given the current economic conditions and local needs, I have decided to continue as sheriff of Butler County," said Butler, in his written statement.
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Post by racehorse » 06-24-2009 10:39 AM

These poll numbers look very encouraging to Mayor Giuliani. Still, I hope that he does not make the race for Governor of New York. He should, at the very least, be in the United States Senate instead.

---


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1061.html

New York Governor - Giuliani vs. Paterson

Polling Data


Poll Date Sample Giuliani (R) Paterson (D) Spread

RCP Average 4/28 - 6/21 -- 55.8 30.8 Giuliani +25.0

Quinnipiac 6/18 - 6/21 2477 RV 52 34 Giuliani +18

Siena 6/15 - 6/18 626 RV 57 27 Giuliani +30

Rasmussen Reports 5/14 - 5/14 500 LV 58 30 Giuliani +28

Marist 4/28 - 4/29 1029 RV 56 32 Giuliani +24
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Post by racehorse » 06-24-2009 12:48 PM

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/ ... nning.html

June 24, 2009

Run By Not Running

As South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) and Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) work overtime to take themselves out of contention for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, one candidate seems to be doing everything right.

First Read: "By process of elimination, the potential 2012 candidate who has probably had the best five months is Mitt Romney, who has delivered a few hard-hitting speeches at Obama but has largely stayed out of the spotlight. And that very well could be the lesson to this story. After all, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton did their best to stay away from the presidential buzz in 2005-2006. We didn't even know Obama was thinking about a presidential bid until right before the midterms, and Clinton didn't set foot in Iowa and New Hampshire until after she announced she was running for president in January 2007. On the other hand, John Edwards was running for president as soon as the 2004 contest ended, and that didn't work out so great for him..."

A new Pew Research poll finds Romney "has seen his favorability ratings improve and now enjoys a positive balance of opinion among the general public: 40% rate him favorably, 28% unfavorably."
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Post by racehorse » 06-25-2009 11:33 AM

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ida_senate

Election 2010: Florida Senate

2010 Florida Senate Race: Crist Leads Meek or Brown


Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Charlie Crist holds a solid lead in Florida’s race for the U.S. Senate seat now held by retiring Republican Senator Mel Martinez, but the election’s over 16 months away.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Florida voters shows the state’s popular GOP governor handily beating the two Democrats who have announced for the open Senate seat, Kendrick Meek and Corrine Brown, both now members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Crist tops Brown by a 21-point margin, 50% to 29%, with eight percent (8%) favoring some other candidate and 13% undecided.

Against Meek, Crist wins by a slightly narrower 18-point spread, 46% to 28%. Twelve percent (12%) prefer some other candidate, and 14% are not sure which candidate they’ll vote for.

Brown carries just over half of the Democratic vote (53%) in a match-up with Crist, while Meek carries 59% of Democrats in a two-man race. Once Democrats agree on a nominee, however, the level of Democratic support is sure to go up.

Crist now has the support of at least 70% of Republicans against either candidate.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Crist, including 20% very favorable. Thirty-six percent (36%) view the governor unfavorably, with 16% whose opinion is very unfavorable. Just eight percent (8%) have no opinion of Crist.

For Brown, favorables are 36%, including 11% very favorable. Unfavorables are 38%, with 18% who have a very unfavorable opinion of the congresswoman. But as is often the case for first-time statewide candidates, a large number of voters (26%) don’t know enough about Brown to have an opinion of her at this time.

Meek is viewed favorably by 37%, with 14% who have a very favorable view of him. Thirty-six percent (36%) view the congressman unfavorably, including 15% whose opinion is very unfavorable. Twenty-eight percent (28%) aren’t sure what they think of Meek.

In a survey in April before either Democrat was formally in the race, 57% of Florida voters said it was at least somewhat likely they would vote for Crist in the 2010 Senate race. Thirty-seven percent (37%) said they were unlikely to do so.

Sixty percent (60%) of Florida voters now approve of the job Crist is doing as governor, with 15% who strongly approve. Thirty-six percent (36%) disapprove of his performance. Of the latter group, 16% strongly disapprove.

Critical to Crist’s success in the Senate race is how voters evaluate President Obama’s performance. Last November, the Democrat narrowly carried the state which had been won by Republicans in eight of the 10 previous presidential contests.

Forty-six percent (46%) of Florida voters now approve of Obama’s performance, including 32% who strongly approve. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove of the job the president is doing, with 38% who strongly disapprove. Obama fares worse in Florida now than he does nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In the 2008 election, Obama benefited from a large voter turnout among African-Americans. Both Brown and Meek are black which likely ensures a heavy turnout from that community again next November.

Crist also faces a potentially bruising intraparty challenge from Marco Rubio, the conservative former speaker of the Florida House. A Cuban-American, Rubio has strong support in that key Florida constituency.
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